[Political Junkie Too]

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[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

-PJ

[KansasGirl]

So, Obama is on his way to re-election. Pitiful. I just can’t believe Americans would re-elect this guy.

[Political Junkie Too]

Reposting the same nonense from the last time...

Whatsamatter?

After 11 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of sidebar recognition?

Do you find MSM articles more factual or worthy of FR eyes than what I just wrote?

Whom do YOU want to win the election? How are you working to motivate the people?

Something tells me that this is going to be a regular post to you's guys.

If Brian Ross wrote it, would you allow it?

-PJ

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/20/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Let's roll!

 

7/20/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold/Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)		GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)		GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[rbbeachkid]

I thought that California passed a law that said that their EV votes went to the candidate with the most national votes.

Is that incorrect?

[beenaround]

I guess all this minutae is fun but to change a prediction based on a 1% move seems a bit much given polls are nothing but snapshots of the exact moment the person is asked the question and could hve changed in the next hour because of a story they heard or read about one candidate or the other.