[pistolpackinpapa]

Please Note: There are more "Solid" GOP Electoral Votes than there are "Solid" Dem EVs. And out of the Toss-ups (of which the most went for Obama in 2008) I'm saying that the GOP picks up: Florida (29), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10) FOR A TOTAL OF 268.

If I'm right on the above, then all we need to do is pick up any ONE of these States: Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Nevada (6) or Ohio (18) and I think that is extremely doable.

[pistolpackinpapa]

I will say one more thing: There are a whole lot of Mormons in Colorado, and even Nevada. Either of those will put Romney over. A victory in Ohio and/or Michigan would just be icing on the cake.

[Shadowfax]

It’s discouraging to me that it’s even this close. How could even one state go to Obama?

[ScottinVA]

Should be able to snare Ohio out of that group, especially as Ohioans view the unraveling economy, job scarcity, etc. Once those paying attention are made to understand employers are holding off hiring pending a final resolution of Obamacare (i.e., repeal of first Obama, then Obamacare itself).

But, to make that happen, the Repubs need to get in the sh*t.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

I am (very) encouraged by this.

Go Mitt.

Now about that VP pick...

[ken5050]

FYI...there is a very kewl interactivewebsite, www.270towin.com, that lets you design and model your own electoral college vote scenarios. Do check it out.

[smokingfrog]

bfl

[wbill]

NC is not a "toss-up". Solid red here, this year.

At least IMHO.

[RabidBartender]

I’m not sold on Wisconsin or Iowa. When’s the last time Wisconsin went GOP? And Iowa has been so fruity over the past decade, I wouldn’t count on them.

Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio seem more likely to me.

[Grams A]

We know that the press will start reporting results beginning with exit polls very early in the day and vote counts on the east coast as soon as the polls close. This one fact alone has a greater effect on whether people in other parts of the country decide to go vote or not than any other single factor.

[Vigilanteman]

Any poll which lists North Carolina as "toss-up" is delusional. Obama won it by less than 0.4% in the Democrat banner year of 2008. The jackass governor and U.S. Senator cruised to huge wins that year and both are declining to run for re-election. That says a lot more than one poll.

Even the left-leaning New York Times has a way better analysis posted here.

With what Freepers on the ground have added, it may actually come down to New Hampshire's results in a razor thin election. Not exactly a friendly state to voter fraud.

[Wallace T.]

I just don't see North Carolina or Virginia repeating their pro-Obama vote in 2008; they will rejoin the Confederacy. OTOH, New Hampshire may fall in line with the rest of Yankeeland and provide a solid Obama phalanx from the Potomac to the Canadian border. Ohio's most recent polls do not look encouraging, with the pro-Obama margin wider there than in Florida or Pennsylvania. However, a Portman vice presidential nomination may turn Ohio Republican. The fallout from Obamacare may push Florida into the Republican camp, as the Medicare program will suffer severe cuts. A Rubio vice presidential nomination will almost assure a GOP victory in the Sunshine State. Pennsylvania always disappoints GOP hopes in the Presidential race, and the incumbent Democrat US Senator (Casey) has a double digit lead in the polls. The Scott Walker victory may be a harbinger of GOP victory in Wisconsin. The illegal immigration issue may assure a Republican victory in Arizona. The Mormon voters in Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona may allow for a GOP victory, especially if a Rubio vice presidential candidacy adds significant numbers of Hispanic voters to the Republican column.

One possible element that could hurt Romney is if the 10-15% of the Republican primary electorate that supported Ron Paul vote for the Libertarian Gary Johnson or don't vote at all. This election is going to be tight, and a 2-5% vote for Johnson could tip Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire into the Democrat camp. It will pay dividends if Romney plays nice with Paul and his supporters and gives him a half hour speaking engagement at the Republican convention.

The 2012 election may be something of a "tribal" affair, if Romney's Mormon "tribe" and Rubio's Latino "tribe" outweigh Obama's "tribes" of blacks and urban and union white liberals.

[jstaff]

Is it just me or did RCP make a mistake in their arithmetic. They give Obama 221, and that counts the “leaners”. For some reason they didn’t include the leaners in Romney’s totals. By my math, if you include the leaners for both sides, Romney has 181+50 for a total of 231, which puts Romney up by 10 using their numbers. Is this a typo, trick reporting, or my lack of coffee this morning?

[jstaff]

That solid GOP number should read “131”, per the RCP site.

[jstaff]

That solid GOP number should read “131”, per the RCP site.

[Charles Henrickson]

LIKELY OBAMA (175)
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)

LEANS OBAMA (46)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)

TOSS-UP (136)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

LEANS ROMNEY (50)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)

LIKELY ROMNEY (131)
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)