Here’s the chess: Roberts officially made this a tax. Well, when the IRS tries to collect the tax, the issue of procedural due process will come into play due to the waivers (equal protection), and the Court will strike it down then. But wait, the waivers have been issued, you say? True, but they don’t do anything procedurally yet.
It’s a Texas two-step. The “win” is illusory.
Bottom line, the ruling hurts Obama. A rejection would have hurt him , too. But upholding on the commerce clause would have helped him. IMO.
Besides, if Roberts had such a clever strategem up his sleeve, why not tip off his conservative colleagues? Instead he alienated his allies on the court for nothing, when all he really had to do was the right thing and vote it down. Why go through risky gyrations to achieve the same end?
The whole thing makes no sense unless he caved. For god knows what reason.