Could New Hampshire decide the election?

New York Times ^ | 30 June 2012 | Election staff analysis

[Vigilanteman]

The New York Times has updated their electoral map, moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the toss-up category.

Unlike the Huffington Post which shows Obama has 254 electoral votes locked down, the Times shows him with just 185 plus 32 leaning for a total of 217. He needs 53 among the toss-up states to put him over 270, still less than Romney, who needs 64 with solid states and leaners included.

I've therefore listed the 9 states and electoral votes of each in the toss-up category in order of likelihood to vote GOP:

1. Virginia - 13
   
2. Florida - 29
   
3. Ohio - 18
   
4. New Hampshire - 4
   
5. Iowa - 6
   
6. Nevada - 6
   
7. Colorado - 9
   
8. Pennsylvania - 20
   
9. Wisconsin - 10

[wizwor]

I’m from New Hampshire. I voted for Ron Paul in the primary. A lot of people did. I voted for Perot twice. A lot of people did. We know Romney well and I think he will take New Hampshire. Romney is not like Bush 41, Dole, or McCain. He is a man applying for a job. Once we elect him, Romney will accept and act on his mandate.

There are two reasons I vote for a candidate: 1) I like what he says, and 2) I believe he will do what he said. I like what Romney is saying and believe he will execute once elected. For this reason, he gets my vote. For this reason, he wins New Hampshire.

[nutmeg]

Bookmark

[Elsie]

Ain’t lookin’ good for our side.

What side would that BE?

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Exodus 32:26-29

26 then Moses stood in the gate of the camp and said, “Who is on the Lord's side? Come to me.”

And all the sons of Levi gathered around him.

27 And he said to them, “Thus says the Lord God of Israel, ‘Put your sword on your side each of you, and go to and fro from gate to gate throughout the camp, and each of you kill his brother and his companion and his neighbor.’”

28 And the sons of Levi did according to the word of Moses. And that day about three thousand men of the people fell.

29 And Moses said, “Today you have been ordained for the service of the Lord, each one at the cost of his son and of his brother, so that he might bestow a blessing upon you this day.”

[Elsie]

I am sure you will be very happy if Obama is reelected.

MAny in this thread would be very happy if a Deceived MORMON or a Deceiving one is elected.

[Elsie]

Scary to think that it could all come down to New Hampshire, isn't it?

Nah...

Scary to think we will p;ossibly have the 'choice' between a godless Marxist and a false god worshipping MORMON from which to choose.

But hey; what should we expect??

Are you still killing your unborn?

-- GOD

 

[Elsie]

He has become a total bore on FR

Only to MORMONs...

Kinda like ME!

[Elsie]

Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.

The

DOCTRINE AND COVENANTS

OF THE CHURCH OF JESUS CHRIST OF LATTER-DAY SAINTS

SECTION 71

Revelation given to Joseph Smith the Prophet and Sidney Rigdon, at Hiram, Ohio, December 1, 1831. HC 1: 238–239. The Prophet had continued to translate the Bible with Sidney Rigdon as his scribe until this revelation was received, at which time it was temporarily laid aside so as to enable them to fulfill the instruction given herein. The brethren were to go forth to preach in order to allay the unfriendly feelings that had developed against the Church as a result of the publication of some newspaper articles by Ezra Booth, who had apostatized.

1–4, Joseph Smith and Sidney Rigdon are sent forth to proclaim the gospel; 5–11, Enemies of the saints shall be confounded.

1 Behold, thus saith the Lord unto you my servants Joseph Smith, Jun., and Sidney Rigdon, that the time has verily come that it is necessary and expedient in me that you should open your mouths in proclaiming my gospel, the things of the kingdom, expounding the mysteries thereof out of the scriptures, according to that portion of Spirit and power which shall be given unto you, even as I will.

2 Verily I say unto you, proclaim unto the world in the regions round about, and in the church also, for the space of a season, even until it shall be made known unto you.

3 Verily this is a mission for a season, which I give unto you.

4 Wherefore, labor ye in my vineyard. Call upon the inhabitants of the earth, and bear record, and prepare the way for the commandments and revelations which are to come.

5 Now, behold this is wisdom; whoso readeth, let him understand and receive also;

6 For unto him that receiveth it shall be given more abundantly, even power.

7 Wherefore, confound your enemies; call upon them to meet you both in public and in private; and inasmuch as ye are faithful their shame shall be made manifest.

8 Wherefore, let them bring forth their strong reasons against the Lord.

9 Verily, thus saith the Lord unto you—there is no weapon that is formed against you shall prosper;

10 And if any man lift his voice against you he shall be confounded in mine own due time.

11 Wherefore, keep my commandments; they are true and faithful. Even so. Amen.

 

The Official Scriptures of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
© 2006 Intellectual Reserve, Inc. All rights reserved.
Rights and use information. Privacy policy.

[Elsie]

But I’d rather have a 1% chance of this country surviving the next 4 years than a 0% chance.

Then AMERICA had better repent; as we do NOT have political problems; but SPIRITUAL ones in this country.

[Elsie]

But now we have a country which has been abducted by overrun with illegal aliens.

[Elsie]

We have a JOB to do, not be bothered with your 12 year old ranting against the only person in the country, who, at this time, can beat obama.

I know you really want to believe this; but Romney will be the WORST person to try to beat Obama (if the Dems decide to keepim at the convention).

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Mitt has just TOO many albatrosses to swim with!!

Silly Image ALERT!

[Elsie]

Does anyone REALLY think the Libs will NOT point out the following facts??

And the 'fact' that Mitt was 32 years old when his 'god' finally relented against black folks??

And we have NOTHING on record of Mitt ever doing ANYTHING to side with the cause of Black Folks???

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"You see some classes of the human family that are black, uncouth, uncomely, disagreeable and low in their habits, wild, and seemingly deprived of nearly all the blessings of the intelligence that is generally bestowed upon mankind.

The first man that committed the odious crime of killing one of his brethren will be cursed the longest of any one of the children of Adam. Cain slew his brother. Cain might have been killed, and that would have put a termination to that line of human beings.

This was not to be, and the Lord put a mark upon him, which is the flat nose and black skin. Trace mankind down to after the flood, and then another curse is pronounced upon the same race--that they should be the 'servant of servants', and they will be, until that curse is removed."

Brigham Young-President and second 'Prophet' of the Mormon Church, 1844-1877- Extract from Journal of Discourses.

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Here are two examples from their 'other testament', the Book of Mormon.

2 Nephi 5: 21 'And he had caused the cursing to come upon them, yea, even a sore cursing, because of their iniquity. For behold, they had hardened their hearts against him, that they had become like unto a flint; wherefore, as they were white, and exceedingly fair and delightsome, that they might not be enticing unto my people, the Lord God did cause a skin of blackness to come upon them.'

Alma 3: 6 'And the skins of the Lamanites were dark, according to the mark which was set upon their fathers, which was a curse upon them because of their transgression and their rebellion against their brethren, who consisted of Nephi, Jacob and Joseph, and Sam, who were just and holy men.'

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August 27, 1954 in an address at Brigham Young University (BYU), Mormon Elder, Mark E Peterson, in speaking to a convention of teachers of religion at the college level, said:

"The discussion on civil rights, especially over the last 20 years, has drawn some very sharp lines. It has blinded the thinking of some of our own people, I believe. They have allowed their political affiliations to color their thinking to some extent.I think I have read enough to give you an idea of what the Negro is after."

"He is not just seeking the opportunity of sitting down in a cafe where white people eat. He isn't just trying to ride on the same streetcar or the same Pullman car with white people. It isn't that he just desires to go to the same theater as the white people. From this, and other interviews I have read, it appears that the Negro seeks absorption with the white race. He will not be satisfied until he achieves it by intermarriage."

"That is his objective and we must face it. We must not allow our feelings to carry us away, nor must we feel so sorry for Negroes that we will open our arms and embrace them with everything we have. Remember the little statement that we used to say about sin, 'First we pity, then endure, then embrace'...."

(Rosa Parks would have probably told Petersen under which wheel of the bus he should go sit.)

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1967, (then) Mormon President Ezra Taft Benson said,

"The Communist program for revolution in America has been in progress for many years and is far advanced. First of all, we must not place the blame upon Negroes. They are merely the unfortunate group that has been selected by professional Communist agitators to be used as the primary source of cannon fodder."

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We are told that on June 8, 1978, it was 'revealed' to the then president, Spencer Kimball, that people of color could now gain entry into the priesthood.

According to the church, Kimball spent many long hours petitioning God, begging him to give worthy black people the priesthood. God finally relented.

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Sometime before the 'revelation' came to chief 'Prophet' Spencer Kimball in June 1978, General Authority, Bruce R McConkie had said:

"The Blacks are denied the Priesthood; under no circumstances can they hold this delegation of authority from the Almighty.

The Negroes are not equal with other races where the receipt of certain blessings are concerned, particularly the priesthood and the temple blessings that flow there from, but this inequality is not of man's origin, it is the Lord's doings."

(Mormon Doctrine, pp. 526-527).

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When Mormon 'Apostle' Mark E Petersen spoke on 'Race Problems- As they affect the Church' at the BYU campus in 1954, the following was also said:

"...if the negro accepts the gospel with real, sincere faith, and is really converted, to give him the blessings of baptism and the gift of the Holy Ghost, he can and will enter the celestial kingdom. He will go there as a servant, but he will get celestial glory."

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When Mormon 'Prophet' and second President of the Church, Brigham Young, spoke in 1863 the following was also said:

"Shall I tell you the law of God in regard to the African race? If the white man who belongs to the chosen seed mixes his blood with the seed of Cain, the penalty, under the law of God is death on the spot. This will always be so."

(Journal of Discourses, Vo. 10, p. 110)

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Yeah; Native Americans are althroughout the Book of MORMON; too.

 

“I saw a striking contrast in the progress of the Indian people today ... they are fast becoming a white and delightsome people.... For years they have been growing delightsome, and they are now becoming white and delightsome, as they were promised.... The children in the home placement program in Utah are often lighter than their brothers and sisters in the hogans on the reservation.

At one meeting a father and mother and their sixteen-year-old daughter were present, the little member girl-sixteen-sitting between the dark father and mother, and it was evident she was several shades lighter than her parents—on the same reservation, in the same hogan, subject to the same sun and wind and weather.... These young members of the Church are changing to whiteness and to delightsomeness.

One white elder jokingly said that he and his companion were donating blood regularly to the hospital in the hope that the process might be accelerated.

 

(Improvement Era, December 1960, pp.922-23). (p. 209)

 

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[Elsie]

Once we elect him, Romney will accept and act on his mandate.

...the presidential campaign of Mormon Church founder Joseph Smith in 1844: “Challenging Democrat James Polk and Whig Henry Clay, Smith prophesied that if the U.S. Congress did not accede to his demands that ‘they shall be broken up as a government and God shall damn them.’

Smith viewed capturing the presidency as part of the mission of the church.

[MAexile]

I take it that you are in New Hampshire, correct? If so, I would welcome any details which you could add, including recent state polling data.

There hasn't been much at all. I just did a check of the Union Leader, the Monitor and the TV station and couldn't find a thing.

If I do see anything I'll let you know.

[Jim Noble]

NH is a peculiar state, politically speaking.

In 2006 the RATs took over both houses of the legislature in a landslide election which was mostly about Iraq.

RATs being what they are, they immediately started regulating everything. NH has the cold-weather state “look-after-your-neighbor” socialist tendency, but also has strongly, almost fanatically, a “mind-yoiur-own-damn-business” libertarian tendency, so that after four years of RAT regulation, the GOP came back with huge, veto=proof majorities in both houses and have since passed (weak) school vouchers, voter ID, more gun protections than before, and lots of other good stuff.

The state GOP organization is all clubbers, and they don’t connect well with the base. The GOP base voter, here, is an agnostic or weakly Christian low-tax open carry dope loving pickup driving leave me alone guy with seven children, and the wrong GOP candidate (of whom GWB was the prototype) can leave him cold.

Mitt is strong - very strong - with the organization. That will help a little. Obama’s totalitarian nature can hurt him here - badly - but Mitt’s campaign has to shove that in people’s faces, and I’m not sure he has it in him.

I may get to shake his hand this week, and provide a little encouragement to go for the jugular at the same time.

I think as of now, polls aside, NH will go GOP.

[Jim Noble]

By the way, if you all had 20 seconds of face time to say one thing to Mitt, what would you say? (I’m not saying FUMR - I’m serious).

[Vigilanteman]

Excellent analysis back in April, no less. At the time, the New York Times list had Pennsylvania assigned as a Democrat leaner, not a toss-up. That makes the decision by our GOP state chairman Rob Gleason to lobby against the legislation which would have made us a district voting state like Maine and Nebraska when it was brought up last fall look all the more stupid still.

Remember, the legislation wasn't introduced by some back bencher, but by the senate majority leader. The GOP enjoyed healthy majorities in both houses and our governor was pledged to sign it. It was only last minute lobbying by Gleason, who also arm-twisted a few GOP legislators from RINO friendly districts, which scuttled the plan.

Just based on results from the 2008 blow-out, we'd be winning 13 of 20 electoral votes. Two districts which elected jackasses in the SW part of the state also voted for McCain. So I'm counting the newly combined district among the 13. Of the remaining 7, two are at large (statewide), three are safe Democrat and the remaining two are leaners. So the 13 could actually grow to 15 or, in the case of a moderate 1988 style blowout, even 17.

You've got to wonder what Gleason was thinking in trading 13 fairly winnable electoral votes for the once in 20 years or more chance to win 20, rather than 17.

Most likely, he was thinking of his own outsized influence in the national GOP which places too many delegates with states with potential electoral votes and too little with states which actually deliver electoral votes.

[Vigilanteman]

I'd tell him to go on the Michael Savage show a.s.a.p. It is well worth the risk to sway the thinking but wavering conservative vote.

Rush and Hannity (as good as they are) are perceived as GOP cheerleaders. Savage, not so much.

Savage may very well ask some uncomfortable and unscripted questions, but no worse than he would get in any debates with BO.

[Elsie]

I’d tell ‘im to leave MORMONism - it is a DEAD end.

[catfish1957]

My bumpersticker probably reads.... We’re Screwed 2012

[melancholy]

Great election analysis Ping..........................

A great thread by viglanteman who wrote:

Feel free to debate the order of the 9 toss-ups, but I consider it pretty solid based on statewide polls and demographic changes, especially a surge in the illegal alien friendly Hispanic demographic in Colorado and Nevada since 2008.

If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn't need a single state above it. Romney doesn't need a single state below it.

Of course, if the election is a blow-out either way, nobody will need New Hampshire either way. But if it is as razor-thin as some expect, New Hampshire's four electoral votes is the difference between victory and defeat.

We need more of electoral rational analysis and less rhetoric on these threads.

Again, thank you, vigilanteman.