I still think 99% of freepers will vote for Romney. That 99% includes all conservative readers, not just recent posters. Among recent posters as many as 10% might vote third party, write in or leave it blank. Unless all of them live in swing states there's no chance they'll throw the election to Obama, so I wouldn't worry about it.
On the general question of why we're stuck with a less than conservative nominee, there's a myth on FR that the people are conservative, that the country is moving right. It's not that simple. On taxes and spending Republicans are moving right and have been since 2005 or so. Democrats are moving left on taxes but so far they're being blocked by Republicans. On abortion the country is moving slightly to the right. On gay rights we're losing badly. On defense spending things are moving slightly left. On the war on terror the country has turned hard left, which IMHO is why we're stuck with Obama. He was elected to end the war in Iraq.
A conservative who satisfied the social, fiscal and defense conservatives on FR would lose in a landslide.
But I don't have to argue this point with a lot of polling, it's obvious from the most meaningful polls, elections.
If the country is moving to the right why did the country elect a Democratic congress in 2006, and the most liberal Democrat president ever in 2008?
For that matter if the country is moving to the right why did Republican primary voters choose moderates McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012?
If the country is moving to the right why did the country elect a Democratic congress in 2006, and the most liberal Democrat president ever in 2008?
The answer is that the Conservative position went largely unstated by the Republican leadership--or when stated, without a proper or effective development of the argument. This is not hindsight, real Conservatives were constantly very very upset with the way that those whom they had elected, performed.
We simply need to stop trusting the office seekers to define the issues, and do a much better job offering reasoned, rather than emotional, arguments to our fellow citizens.
A good place to start is by getting away from simply shouting insults at those one disagrees with, and learn to carefully explain why the position you believe in, really is the valid approach to any particular subject.
There are enough intelligent Conservatives right here, at Free Republic, to turn America around, if we simply use our intelligence, rather than our anger.
I agree with your estimate about Romney voters.
Your assessment of the sentiment of the country is probably about right also.
I do think that people are moving right on abortion more than you do.
On gay rights, a lot of people don’t care that much. I don’t.
On the military, I think most people want America to retain a strong military presence and retain leadership in defense.
This is all muddled up with a general discontent with American military action in countries where we are going in without a clear purpose or where we have no national interest.
I personally am against interfering in middle-eastern countries. If we take the side of the rebels, the next thing we know is the rebels become the oppressors.
I really wish we would get to a position with our oil resources where we could ignore the middle east.
We are a sympathetic people and it’s hard to ignore suffering but there’s really not a dam thing we can do in those uncivilized countries with that peculiar oppressive religion.
On the other hand, the disaster of the Obama administration and the financial troubles have definitely moved people to the right on many issues.