Posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:16 AM PDT by xzins
Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race
While the most closely-watched contest on Tuesday may be the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary battle between six-term incumbent Dick Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, there will still be a few things to keep an eye on at the top of the ticket in the Hoosier State, North Carolina, and West Virginia.
For these three presidential primaries will be the first in which Mitt Romney faces only one opponent on the ballot who has not yet suspended his campaign - Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.
The primaries on Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-à-vis John McCain in 2008, as well as Ron Paul's own base of support.
These three states, along with the upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota, each also featured two-man races in 2008 with McCain and Paul.
And so, with Congressman Paul's support significantly higher this cycle throughout the primary season, as well as voters not coalescing around Romney's campaign compared to other presumptive nominees in Republican Party history, expect more scrutiny over Romney's ability to turn out the GOP base in November if he fails to receive at least two-thirds of the vote Tuesday.
Only one of the remaining 12 primary states, Montana, is in classic "Ron Paul country" - the Texas congressman has excelled in both cycles in northern border states - although he also may perform particularly well in Oregon and South Dakota in the coming weeks.
So how much of a boost can Paul expect to receive in his one-on-one challenge against the former Massachusetts governor?
In 2008, Congressman Paul averaged 7.4 percent in the 41 state primaries and caucuses held before Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race on March 4th - leaving the field open to just McCain and Paul.
That left just two active candidates in the race (with the occasional ex-candidate still lingering on the ballot) for the remaining 12 contests.
Paul averaged 12.4 percent of the vote in those dozen primaries, or an increase of only 5.0 points when he had a one-on-one matchup against John McCain.
In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests (excluding U.S. territories).
Representative Paul has at least doubled his percentage of vote received from 2008 to 2012 in nearly half of these contests (17 states): Ohio (+100.0 percent), Arizona (+104.8), Iowa (+114.0), Florida (+118.8), Georgia (+127.6), Wisconsin (+138.3), Delaware (+152.4), New York (+153.2), Missouri (+171.1), Oklahoma (+190.9), New Hampshire (+197.4), Connecticut (+221.4), Massachusetts (+251.9), South Carolina (+261.1), Rhode Island (+266.2), Vermont (+283.3), and Virginia (+800.0).
That includes double-digit improvements on his 2008 tally in seven states: Iowa (+11.4 points), Maine (+17.8), New Hampshire (+15.2), Rhode Island (+17.3), Vermont (+18.7), and Virginia (+36.0).
The only two states in which Paul has received a lower percentage of the vote in 2012 compared to 2008 are Idaho and Pennsylvania.
However, when Paul won 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania in 2008, he was the only active candidate in the race other than McCain. Paul fell just shy of that mark in April with 13.2 percent with Gingrich still officially in the race tallying 10.5 percent.
The same is true in Idaho, where Paul and McCain were the only candidates on the primary ballot in 2008 when he notched 23.7 percent of the vote. In the 2012 Idaho caucuses, Paul was one of four active candidates on the ballot when he won 18.1 percent.
In Tuesday's primary states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia.
If I lived in one of those states, I would vote for Paul. It’s hard to believe that he’s our last hope to stop the big government liberal from MA, but that’s his role. I want a contested convention, where the adults in the party (if any) can reconsider whether shoving Romney down our throats is working as planned.
Vote Romney to defeat Obama.
Vote Romney to defeat Obama.
Vote Romney to defeat Obama.
Gingrich would be tearing the zero campaign to shreds by now, especially reponding to Axleneck and the other accusers that leave mittens staring at the headlights .... and it's not even dusk yet ... too early for headlights.
Voted before Newt pulled out. If we went to the polls today would have voted for Paul....Lot’s of support for him here.
Only saw four Lugar signs. Two in each of two yards. Just feet apart. Lots of “Fire Lugar” and Mourdock signs.
No one here is crossing over because there is a big D race (5 condidates) to run against Todd Young.
Next time you take a dump, don’t flush before looking for a clue.
ABOR
Romney will lose.
The Convention needs support for dumping liberal Mitt.
VOTE Paul!
Here in Indiana, Gingrich and Santorum are still on the ballot.
Santorum was already gone when Pa had it’s primary and Santorum pulled a pretty good number. (I forget, I think in the high 20’s or low 30’s)
We need to give the GOP convention solid reasons for dumping Mitt Romney.
If they don’t, they’ll lose.
If you know you’re going to lose, then why continue down that path?
“Romney will lose.”
I am sorry that you are so eager to see Obama re-elected over Romney, but that prediction is way off ...
Romney up 5 ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2881233/posts
I’d vote for the nutjob over the Socialist.
Newts name was on top of my ballot....Don’t know about the rest of the state. He may pull the ABM vote. OTOH there have been a lot of Paul signs up for years. Big following in southern Indiana.
“If you know you’re going to lose, then why continue down that path?”
Exactly. Why keep pushing Ron Paul when the primary has already been decided and is over?
NO to Willard and NO to Zero.
Willard doesn’t have the delegates and WHY are you so anxious for us NOT to stop the Socialist abomination ?
Is it a "resurgence" when you lose the meaningless beauty contest and win the vote that actually matters?
Romney does not have the requisite number of delegates to be the GOP candidate.
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