Posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:16 AM PDT by xzins
Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race
While the most closely-watched contest on Tuesday may be the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary battle between six-term incumbent Dick Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, there will still be a few things to keep an eye on at the top of the ticket in the Hoosier State, North Carolina, and West Virginia.
For these three presidential primaries will be the first in which Mitt Romney faces only one opponent on the ballot who has not yet suspended his campaign - Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.
The primaries on Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-à-vis John McCain in 2008, as well as Ron Paul's own base of support.
These three states, along with the upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota, each also featured two-man races in 2008 with McCain and Paul.
And so, with Congressman Paul's support significantly higher this cycle throughout the primary season, as well as voters not coalescing around Romney's campaign compared to other presumptive nominees in Republican Party history, expect more scrutiny over Romney's ability to turn out the GOP base in November if he fails to receive at least two-thirds of the vote Tuesday.
Only one of the remaining 12 primary states, Montana, is in classic "Ron Paul country" - the Texas congressman has excelled in both cycles in northern border states - although he also may perform particularly well in Oregon and South Dakota in the coming weeks.
So how much of a boost can Paul expect to receive in his one-on-one challenge against the former Massachusetts governor?
In 2008, Congressman Paul averaged 7.4 percent in the 41 state primaries and caucuses held before Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race on March 4th - leaving the field open to just McCain and Paul.
That left just two active candidates in the race (with the occasional ex-candidate still lingering on the ballot) for the remaining 12 contests.
Paul averaged 12.4 percent of the vote in those dozen primaries, or an increase of only 5.0 points when he had a one-on-one matchup against John McCain.
In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests (excluding U.S. territories).
Representative Paul has at least doubled his percentage of vote received from 2008 to 2012 in nearly half of these contests (17 states): Ohio (+100.0 percent), Arizona (+104.8), Iowa (+114.0), Florida (+118.8), Georgia (+127.6), Wisconsin (+138.3), Delaware (+152.4), New York (+153.2), Missouri (+171.1), Oklahoma (+190.9), New Hampshire (+197.4), Connecticut (+221.4), Massachusetts (+251.9), South Carolina (+261.1), Rhode Island (+266.2), Vermont (+283.3), and Virginia (+800.0).
That includes double-digit improvements on his 2008 tally in seven states: Iowa (+11.4 points), Maine (+17.8), New Hampshire (+15.2), Rhode Island (+17.3), Vermont (+18.7), and Virginia (+36.0).
The only two states in which Paul has received a lower percentage of the vote in 2012 compared to 2008 are Idaho and Pennsylvania.
However, when Paul won 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania in 2008, he was the only active candidate in the race other than McCain. Paul fell just shy of that mark in April with 13.2 percent with Gingrich still officially in the race tallying 10.5 percent.
The same is true in Idaho, where Paul and McCain were the only candidates on the primary ballot in 2008 when he notched 23.7 percent of the vote. In the 2012 Idaho caucuses, Paul was one of four active candidates on the ballot when he won 18.1 percent.
In Tuesday's primary states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia.
Then your vote would do EXACTLY as intended.
Not at all. The time for that is the primaries and between elections. In the general election 3rd parties are spoilers you wasted a vote.
Thanks for the help.
Voting for the only candidate with both fiscal and social conservative values and promises, is destroying conservative support in the GOP?
Kick both Obama and Romney to the curb, support Paul.
Sorry, Sun, but you don’t build 3rd parties in primary elections.
The time for a 3rd party to gain name recognition is in the general election. That is the time to vote and have your vote accomplish something.
Romney can't be trusted (imo) to cancel every EO zero has ever signed, nor fire every czar, nor defund and eliminate EPA (f'rinstance).
The only one that had the aggies to speak hard against obama and vow to destroy all of his administrative efforts was Newt ... and he's gone.
We REALLY need a handle on the delegates and the convention if we are to be pre-emptively effective in regaining our America.
When has that ever happened. Don't say that's how the Republican party started. When Lincoln won the Whigs were gone, morphed into the Republican party. The Republicans didn't win anything as a third party. Support grew for the (R) between elections, not as a third party spoiler. Republicans won when the Whigs were history.
No one is going to stop Romney at the convention at this point.
As to judges, save your link I’ve seen it 500 times.
As a republican president facing a republican Congress, Romney is NOT going to appoint the likes of Sotomayer or Kagan. I’m very sorry if you’ve convinced yourself he will.
As to Newt, well that really should be clear by now.
I voted for Paul today...because he wasn’t Myth Romney. Piss on the GOP-e.
Realistic choices for whom ? Socialists. You’re barking up the wrong tree, because I’ve actively opposed and exposed Willard’s ultraleft record going back a long time. There is no scenario imaginable that I would vote for that lying fraud and sociopath ever. Unless the GOP does the right thing and dumps that abomination at the convention, my vote goes to Virgil Goode.
“Willard doesn’t have the delegates”
He will, it’s inevitable. He just got 65% of the NC vote and got 100% of Indiana’s delegates as well. Add in the delegates from the rivals who endorsed him and he’s already there.
“and WHY are you so anxious for us NOT to stop the Socialist abomination ?”
I am anxious for November to stop the Socialist abomination Obama.
“The Libertarian and Constitution Party are recognized alternative parties in the US.”
Uh huh. Remind us again of how many Presidential races they’ve won and how many laws they got passed....
as many as Daffy Duck?!?
“There is no place at all that the US Constitution says “The US is a 2 Party System”.”
Yeah, and the Bible doesnt tell you how to compute the area of a circle, so obviously pi*r^2 is bogus.
“Inevitable.” You even talk like the leftists. You’re on the wrong website.
Ron Paul failed the test in NC:
Romney got 65% and Ron Paul got 11%.
“Reagan lost to the guy that lost to Carter, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Carter.”
Good one.
Romney’s doing a bit better than Reagan was doing pollwise in May 1980, but otherwise this is shaping up quite a bit like that election.
I also voted for Santorum, even though he is out of the race. Romney won easily here in Indiana. I will hold my nose and vote for him in November.
So, I agree with you. In NC Romney met the test. That's not to say he didn't elsewhere. I just haven't seen the results yet.
Faulty illustration. The bible is not set up as a math book.
The US Constitution is set up to establish the details of our government.
Political parties aren’t government. They’re political parties. Why would the Constitution say anything about it?
Because of the insistence by some that the US is a 2-party system. I pointed out that the US Constitution requires no such thing. That was the topic of discussion.
You reinforce my point by inferring that political parties aren’t mentioned in the US Constitution.
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