Do the math: Senate could shift Republican in 2012

Human Events ^ | 04/23/2012 | John Gizzi

[neverdem]

Link to an oversize Senatorial map in a new window

Less than 200 days before the November elections, Republicans are brimming with confidence about gaining at least the four seats they need to put the U.S. Senate in their column.

With 47 Republican senators and 53 Democrats, the number of seats up for election clearly point to the much-desired GOP net gain of four and then some. There are 35 Senate seats are up for grabs this fall, with 10 held by Republicans and 25 by the Democrats.

Of that 25, six Democratic senators are retiring: Akaka (Hawaii), Nelson (Neb.), Bingman (NM), Conrad (N.D.), Webb (Va.), Kohl (Wisc.). In addition, one independent who votes with the Democrats for Senate control, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, is also calling it quits. In all seven situations, Republicans range from being slam-dunk favorites to pick up seats (Nebraska and North Dakota) to at least even money of winning (New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin) to fighting chances in states once considered lost causes. In Hawaii, which last elected a Republican senator in 1970, popular two-term Gov. and moderate GOPer Linda Lingle is thought to be a formidable candidate against whoever wins the hotly contested Democratic primary. In Connecticut, where Rep. Chris Murphy and Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz are duking it out for the Democratic nomination, Republicans feel they can pick up the pieces and win their first Senate race since 1982.

“I’m an honest broker,” Connecticut GOP Chairman Jerry Labriola told Human Events during a recent interview, underscoring his neutrality, “but if Chris Murphy [who is 38] wins, he could be there for the rest of my life. So we have to have a candidate we can rally behind to stop that from happening.” The two Republican hopefuls are 2010 nominee and former World Wresting Entertainment executive Linda McMahon, a center-right GOPer, and former Rep. (1987-2006) Chris Shays, a liberal Republican.

In contrast, three of the seven Republican incumbents facing the voters are considered certain winners: Wicker (Miss.), Corker (Tenn.) and Barrasso (Wyo.). In Indiana and Utah, the two most senior Republican senators respectively—Richard Lugar and Orrin Hatch, both of whom won their first terms in 1976—faced spirited renomination challenges. But so weak are the Democratic contenders in either state that even if the insurgents were to depose the senators, they would be the betting favorites to keep the Senate seats in the two states.

Only two Republican senators are in danger of possible defeat: Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who won the nationally watched special election for the seat of the late Edward Kennedy in January 2010, and Dean Heller of Nevada, appointed to replace fellow Republican John Ensign when he resigned over a sex scandal last year. Brown faces former Obama administration official Elizabeth Warren, while Heller is locked in a tight contest with Democrat and Las Vegas-area Rep. Shelley Berkley.

Danger in Maine

Of the three Republican Senate seats in which incumbents are retiring, only one is in danger of falling into Democratic hands: Maine, where former two-term Gov. and independent Angus King is the favorite to defeat both major party candidates and succeed retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe. King insists he won’t say which party he will side with for Senate control, but it is widely expected that the former governor would go with the Democrats. In contrast, retiring GOP Sens. Jon Kyl of Arizona and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas are sure to be succeeded by fellow Republicans.

In the 15 states where Democratic senators are running again, at least half are sites for highly competitive contests: Florida, where Sen. Bill Nelson should face a strong challenge from Rep. Connie Mack; Michigan, where either former Rep. Pete Hoekstra or former Legal Services chief Clark Durant could upset Sen. Debbie Stabenow; Missouri, where three strong GOPers are vying to challenge Sen. and narrow ’06 winner Claire McCaskill; Montana, where Rep. Denny Rehberg is in a nasty bout with Sen. Jon Tester; Ohio, where State Treasurer Josh Mandel is locked in a tight battle with far-left Sen. Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia, where the administration’s “war on coal” could sweep out Sen. Joe Manchin in favor of John Raese, who narrowly lost to Manchin in the 2010 special election.

That leaves Vermont, where Bernie Sanders, an independent with Democratic backing, is favored to win again.

So you don’t think Republicans can win the Senate this fall, huh? Just do the math.

Senate 2012 map courtesy of the National Republican Senatorial Committee

[neverdem]

"In the 15 states where Democratic senators are running again," IIRC, all voted for the stimulus, Dodd-Frank and Obamacare!

[Lazlo in PA]

This is stacking up to be another bloodbath for the Rats.

[Greg123456]

If it ends up 50-50, the Veep casts the tie. Remember that when you vote Ralph Nader or Virgil Goode or whatever protest candidate you choose. There may not be very many good reasons to vote for Mittens, but this may be one.

[tsowellfan]

I hope a Republican will replace Olympia Snowe (a real republican this time)

[tsowellfan]

If it ends up 50-50, the Veep casts the tie. Remember that when you vote Ralph Nader or Virgil Goode or whatever protest candidate you choose. There may not be very many good reasons to vote for Mittens, but this may be one.

Only problem is Mittens has been on both sides of every issue assuming the VP would vote the desires of the President. As I see it, it may not change a thing.

[cableguymn]

not to mention Mitts invisiable coattails..

The top of the ticket is not going to bring people in for the down ticket races.

The pubs wining the senate is not a lock.

And you’ll have to pitch Mitch to get much conservative work done in the senate anyways.

[lewislynn]

Senate could shift Republican in 2012

Not that we could notice any difference...

Hey, maybe the conservative's favorite Hispanic son Rubio could get his Dream Amnesty bill passed and Obama could sign it...Cuz it won't be Mitt.

[Vendome]

Could¿¿¿¿¿¡¡¡¡

Will!!!

[preacher]

Republicans Poised to Win Senate - Dick Morris and Eileen McGann
http://townhall.com/columnists/dickmorrisandeileenmcgann/2011/02/05/republicans_poised_to_win_senate/page/full/

 

[lentulusgracchus]

There may not be very many good reasons to vote for Mittens, but this may be one.

Nuts. Willard at the top of the ballot means -6% GOP turnout and a host of lost downballot contests. It only remains to be seen, how many. Willard will be lucky to get 45% of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, Obozo will be packing buses full of tax eaters to go vote wherever they can wedge themselves into a polling place.

[muawiyah]

Not really. With the rank and file Republicans and Conservatives beaten down and totally dispirited with the Romney candidacy, it's likely ALL the Republicans running for the Senate will lose.

Mitt must step down to avoid the total destruction of the party and the nation.

[muawiyah]

For all practical purposes the same Kenosha centered Republican ‘Blue Hair” coupon clipper establishment is running Romney’s campaign that ran Goldwater’s campaign, and we’ll get the same old result.

[Graybeard58]

Mitt's presence at the top of the ticket will depress republican turn out, just as his leading the polls all along in the primaries depressed republican turn out. Let's face it, he's a very depressing person, if he can be called a "person".

I won't vote for the slime ball and there's no Senate candidate to vote for. My republican rep. is expected to win in a land slide and he's a global warmist.

Other than that, I'll go vote anyway as there will be a couple of purely local issues on the ballot.

Romney vs. Obama? One of them has to lose, rejoice in that fact, whichever it is.

[lentulusgracchus]

For all practical purposes the same Kenosha centered Republican ‘Blue Hair” coupon clipper establishment is running Romney’s campaign that ran Goldwater’s campaign

I don't know about that. The Establishment people were behind Rockefeller and Scranton and a couple of other 11th-hour, "stop Goldwater" dark horses. Theodore White describes the group that gathered in the "stop Goldwater" caucus that tried to put something together before the Cow Palace convention.

Barry's campaign was run by F. Clifton White, who mobilized an insurgent army of Main Street Republicans (old Bob Taft supporters); I don't know how "establishment" or "blue-haired" they were, but I personally relate them back to Taft's people, and before that to the Bull Moosers and the 1880's Mugwumps (so called, scornfully, by the Old Guard plutocrats .... just like the scorn that gets piled on the Tea Party today).

[muawiyah]

"Kenosha" ~ Barry's wife was "Borg Warner" ~ among other things. The midwestern industrialists class tried this before, and you are on the right track with the Taft connection but not the Mugwamps. The Bullmoosers were a problem inasmuch as they sponsored and supported PROGRESSIVE government policies ~ Environental Extremism, giveaways to JAPAN (the Chicoms of their day), income taxes, increased federal debt, interference in local and state government and government structures, etc.

They were hardly comparable to the TEAParty.

[Venturer]

If the Senate and House are both Republican, what real difference will it make if we keep Boehner and Mitch McConnell as the leadership?

IMO almost none. Obama will still pass his own laws while they merely get a greater proportion of the pork.

Does anyone really think they will work to kill Obamacare?

If the Republicans are in both houses and Romney is President I would bet we will still be stuck with Obamacare, unless the Supreme Court kills it this summer.

[jmaroneps37]

It “could”? Rasmussen has the Republican Senate candidate in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin plus ten points now and things will get worse now that the campaign has actually started.

Those who still think Obama will win please take note. With so many losing Democrats as his running mates does anyone think people will go into the booth to vote for a GOPer for Senate but then vote FOR Obama.

Our nominee not being who we wanted doesn't mean he won't crush Obama. We could have picked a name from the phone book and beaten Obama and sadly we did.

[muawiyah]

You will have anywhere from 5% to 25% of Republicans who vote simply leaving the choice for President unmarked.

That's not what hurts the worse. Typically your state and local party committees try to get their volunteers to carry the water for all the party candidates, and you just won't get a lot of Republicans to work for the Senate and House candidates if they also have to pass around propaganda for Romney.

There's really no room for compromise in this. The old saying is that if you lie down with dogs (the Mittbots) you get up with fleas (instead of voters).

[ripley]

“This is stacking up to be another bloodbath for the Rats.”

If that is surmised by Progressives in September, look for a surprise in October. (adolescent psychotics are capable of anything.)

IMHO

[chrisnj]

The GOP E threatened to lose the House and Senate if Gingrich is the nominee. So now they should/would work to get the House and Senate? Should obozo win, non-Rats H and S is better than Rats - at least obozo has to work harder and longer to get his wishes! (Because the R will have to at least put up a show resulting in delaying and frustrating obozo.)
Should Rino R win, with a Rep H and S, and a vigilante people, they are not so much at liberty (or not so pressured by the Rats/leftists) to tax and spend and ring up the deficit and dismantle the US constitution.....

Now that we have lost our last standing conservative candidate, I say we should focus on -
1. help obamaballotchallenge.com or any other of your favorite org. to keep obozo’s name off the ballot. This will discredit obozo and his gang in the eyes of the voters.
2. help to elect good Rep Congressman/senators from your states.
3. keep up the pressure on obozo - expose him any way you can - discredit, discredit, discredit!!! Return him the favor - assassinate his name and character just like what he did to all his opponents, only we do it based on the truth!