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Where’s the ‘Probable Cause’?
national review ^ | 4-13-12 | John Lott

Posted on 04/13/2012 7:05:10 PM PDT by doug from upland

The charges brought against George Zimmerman sure look like prosecutorial misconduct. The case as put forward by the prosecutor in the “affidavit of probable cause” is startlingly weak. As a former chief economist at the U.S. Sentencing Commission, I have read a number of such affidavits, and cannot recall one lacking so much relevant information. The prosecutor has most likely deliberately overcharged, hoping to intimidate Zimmerman into agreeing to a plea bargain. If this case goes to trial, Zimmerman will almost definitely be found “not guilty” on the charge of second-degree murder.

The prosecutor wasn’t required to go to the grand jury for the indictment, but the fact that she didn’t in such a high-profile case is troubling. Everyone knows how easy it is for a prosecutor to get a grand jury to indict, because only the prosecutor presents evidence. A grand-jury indictment would have provided political cover; that charges were brought without one means that the prosecutor was worried that a grand jury would not give her the indictment.

Advertisement The affidavit consists of six main points:

● Zimmerman was upset about all “the break-ins in his neighborhood” and expressed anger at how criminals “always get away.”

● According to a discussion with Trayvon Martin’s girlfriend, who said that she was talking to Martin before the attack, Zimmerman followed Martin. He did so despite the police operator’s saying “we don’t need you to do that.”

● Zimmerman “confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” though no evidence is cited on this point.

● Trayvon Martin’s mother identified the voice crying for help on a 9-1-1 call as her son’s.

● Zimmerman shot Martin in the chest, and this is confirmed by both Zimmerman’s statement and ballistics tests.

● Martin died from the gunshot wound.

Note some of the points that are missing. The prosecution doesn’t claim Zimmerman had racial animus against blacks. There was no “f***ing coons” on the police call. Some extremely relevant information from the police report is completely excluded: There is no mention of the grass and wetness found on the back of Zimmerman’s shirt, the gashes on the back of his head, the bloody nose, or the other witnesses who saw Martin on top of Zimmerman, beating him, before the shot was fired. There is not even an attempt to say that the police report was in error; instead the affidavit just disregards it.

Even if everything in the affidavit is correct, it does not even begin to deal with the most crucial question: Who attacked whom? Even if it is true that “Zimmerman confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” there may have been no wrongdoing on Zimmerman’s part. “Confronted” does not mean “provoked” or “assaulted.” It could simply mean that Zimmerman followed Martin and asked him what he was doing in the neighborhood. Surely Zimmerman had the right to investigate a strange person in his neighborhood. The police operator’s advice that “we don’t need you to do that” was merely suggestive, not an order to stop. Indeed, the police had no authority to give Zimmerman such an order.

Now take the charge of “second degree” murder. There is no way that the affidavit justifies such a charge. In Florida, second-degree murder is defined as “the unlawful killing of a human being, when perpetrated by any act imminently dangerous to another and evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life, although without any premeditated design to effect the death of any particular individual.” But if Zimmerman was being beaten, there was no “depraved mind regardless of human life,” and the act “imminently dangerous to another” would be justified as self-defense.

Angela Corey, the special prosecutor who filed charges, claimed multiple times on Wednesday that the prosecutors “are seekers of the truth.” In our legal system, grand juries can sometimes provide a check on prosecutors who indict based on political pressure or the desire to seek the limelight. It is no surprise that Corey avoided the grand jury.

— John R. Lott Jr. is a FoxNews.com contributor and a co-author of the just-released Debacle: Obama’s War on Jobs and Growth and What We Can Do Now to Regain Our Future (John Wiley & Sons, March 2012).


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: blackkk; florida; georgezimmerman; johnlott; lott; marktwain; trayvon; trayvonmartin; z911calltranscript; zimmerman; zimmermancharged
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Did Zimmerman voluntarily go on the long walkway? Yes or No

Most likely, he did. The fight happened by the tree over Cheryl Brown's left shoulder in your photo.

Of course, by the time the encounter occurred, Martin, whose girlfriend tells us was either walking fast or running, should have been most or all of the way to Brandy Green's townhouse, which would be off in the distance, over Cheryl Brown's right shoulder.

Instead, Martin, obviously royally pissed at being profiled, pops out of the darkness and confronts and assaults Zimmerman.

Supposedly, the day after, Zimmerman met with the police at the scene and, on video, led them through the sequence of events.

161 posted on 04/14/2012 9:50:22 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: RIghtwardHo

just carrying the gun and following when told not to gets you there.””

Zimmerman had a legal Florida certificate for CCW. As I understand, he had had such paperwork for quite some time.

Neighborhood Watch is just that-—watching—observing—approaching people who do not seem to fit in your area or whom you do not recognise.

Zimmerman had been doing Neighborhood Watch for a long time. He did so with his unpaid time & unpaid car expenses, as do all the other volunteers.

Records show that he had called 911 a number of times over the prior year, about once a week. There has been no information brought forward about how many days of the week Zimmerman was on patrol, trying to protect his neighborhood & his area.

Calling 911 an average of once a week tells me that he is NOT a ‘renegade’ or a ‘cowboy’ out of control, looking for a target. He called when he saw something suspicious.

I have lived where we had Neighborhood Watch. We did it on foot up and down a number of streets where there had been chronic break ins. Just the presence of people walking the area did alot. We were NOT armed, nor did we have cell phones then. We walked in pairs, but at that time—the late 70’s, the thugs were not quite so brazen.
Our watch menbers worked the days as well as the nights.

The activity and increase in break ins rose expotentially when bussing kids from poorer neighborhoods started. Those kids didn’t even enter the school grounds—they were being chauffered to their criminal activities!! After a number of them were caught—it became plain that they were being assisted in their activities by the bussing policies.

This isn’t racist——it is just plain FACT!!


162 posted on 04/14/2012 9:56:14 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: doug from upland

This prosecutor needs to be fired asap! How dare she use tax payer money to try such a ridiculously political case!


163 posted on 04/14/2012 9:56:43 AM PDT by fabian (" And a new day will dawn for those who stand long, and the forests will echo with laughter")
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Of course. As does his brother, but they are simple parroting George's version, which at this point I have no reason to doubt.

The pink route falls under "what if" category. Like so, GZ say's "he's running", he hops out and takes the pink route to perform an end run around Martin. If fit's nicely with George's concern about Treyvon being so close he might hear this exchange...
Zimmerman: Um, I don’t know. It’s a cut-through so I don’t know the address. [3:25]

911 dispatcher: OK, do you live in the area?

Zimmerman: Yeah, yeah, I live here.

911 dispatcher: OK, what’s your apartment number?

Zimmerman: It’s a home. It’s 1950 – oh, crap, I don’t want to give it out – I don’t know where this kid is [inaudible] [3:40]

164 posted on 04/14/2012 10:09:20 AM PDT by moehoward
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Did Martin attack him on that short walkway and drag him part way down the long walkway to the site of the shooting?

I have no idea of the actual location of the shooting. Some place it at the T intersection of the walkways. There is no telling where Zimmerman was. He mentions he was in a cutout so wherever that is was one of his locations.

165 posted on 04/14/2012 10:10:07 AM PDT by USAF80
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To: doug from upland

mrkd


166 posted on 04/14/2012 10:24:49 AM PDT by KarenMarie (NEVER believe anything coming out of DC until it's been denied.)
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To: SuzyQueIN
Even if Martin was “scared” as his girlfriend claimed. All he had to do was wait for Zimmerman to get close and start talking loudly into his phone.

“Hey (mom, dad, friend (whoever)), I'm in the back on the walkway, which house is it. Can you meet me outside?”

If Zimmerman was up to no good he would heard, this think someone would be showing up and he would have retreated.

The most likely result would have been for him to relax and ask Martin who he was looking for.

C’mon, we teach our young kids tricks like this. If someone is tailing you in a car walk or run in the opposite direction, run places the car can't go, go to any door and ring the doorbell, start screaming, etc.

167 posted on 04/14/2012 10:30:58 AM PDT by USAF80
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To: doublecansiter; Tau Food
The way I first heard it was that the 911 call taker, not the police, that told him that they did not need him to follow the guy.

I understand it was not 911, rather a non-emergency police dispatch number.

168 posted on 04/14/2012 11:06:30 AM PDT by MileHi ( "It's coming down to patriots vs the politicians." - ovrtaxt)
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To: Aunt Polgara
Here's a link to another scenario. I've called it the "two encounters" version, as it has Martin approach Zimmerman, in his truck, twice.

The Missing 2:30 & DeeDee's Testimony by Dan Linehan on April 4, 2012

I haven't formed an opinion of the details of exactly how the two got within reach of each other, except that I think Martin is not scared, and he closes distance periodically. In the two encounter scenario, I have to think that Zimmerman may have willingly walked to within reach of Martin. That doesn't merit a punch in the face, and it also doesn't amount to Zimmerman "cornering" Martin, as DeeDee claims.

169 posted on 04/14/2012 12:31:52 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: djf

“They sure as heck ARE LEO and you ignore them at your own peril.”

No, they are not. Get over yourself.


170 posted on 04/14/2012 12:43:26 PM PDT by CodeToad (I'm so right-wing if I lifted my left leg I'd go into a spin.)
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To: doug from upland

The blacks don’t want justice, they just want to experience the joy they perceive whites get from a good old fashioned lynching.


171 posted on 04/14/2012 12:50:11 PM PDT by King Moonracer (Bad lighting and cheap fabric, that's how you sell clothing.....)
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Yes.

Trying to keep it short.

I think seeing the time line like this helps to visualize the event.

The alleged criminal acts took place in the 2 minute 30 second window between Zimm’s hang up and the first 911 call.

Did Zimm go back to his truck, or not?

Did Martin follow Zimm, or vice versa?

Did Zimm have reasonable cause to believe that Martin had a gun in his waistband at 7:11:35?

If so, did Martin's behavior constitute an imminent threat to others, specifically to Zimm?

172 posted on 04/14/2012 1:18:05 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Thanks for the link to George's father's interview. It seems a bit confused to me. He describes George seeing Trayvon from his vehicle “walking behind the townhomes.” The east-west sidewalk can be seen from the street, but is not “behind” the townhomes. Only a very small portion of the North-south sidewalk could conceivably be seen from the street, certainly not enough of it could be seen to determine if someone was acting suspiciously.

If you feel that George's father has his story correct, do you also agree that the rest of what he said is correct, namely:
1)Trayvon walked up to him and said, Do you have a f***ing problem.
2)George replying, No I don't have a problem and reached for his cell phone.
3)Trayvon then punched George in the nose, breaking it and knocked George to the concrete
4)Trayvon then got on top of George, beating him.
5)In the struggle the gun was revealed and Trayvon said to George something to the effect, You're gonna die now or you're gonna die tonight

173 posted on 04/14/2012 2:14:00 PM PDT by Aunt Polgara
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To: zeestephen
7:14:30 - Several reports claim that Zimm returned to his truck after hanging up - they claim that Martin confronted Zimm by banging on his window - they claim Martin then ran and Zimm followed him.

I haven't seen that report before. Can you provide a link to that info?

174 posted on 04/14/2012 2:15:44 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Paisan; Conservative Vermont Vet
Interesting. A careful parsing of the sentence suggests that the “WE” could be interpreted as meaning IF Zimmerman is following the suspect, the police (WE) don’t need to...

Dispatcher: OKAY WE DON’T NEED YOU TO DO THAT”

That is what the dispatcher actually said.

George Zimmerman 911 call about Trayvon Martin UnRedacted

(FWIW he called the non-emergency police line not 911)

175 posted on 04/14/2012 2:23:28 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: TigersEye
The one that comes instantly to mind is Wagist.com.

Scroll way down the page until you come to a group of abstracted headlines.

I think it's titled “The Missing Minute” or something.

I think there's a link to a Reuter’s article.

This does seem to be the critical period.

Did Zimm go back to his truck?

Not clear to me, at all.

176 posted on 04/14/2012 2:25:37 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: TigersEye

OK. I was just copying and pasting from a previous thread.


177 posted on 04/14/2012 2:28:37 PM PDT by Paisan
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To: zeestephen
OK, thanks for the tips. The Wagist website has a lot of info collected into one place. Very useful. The story you mention is The Missing 2:30 & DeeDee’s Testimony. The part about Trayvon going to Zimmerman's truck that you mentioned, from a Reuter's article, is as follows.

On Wednesday, the day after receiving the news, Martin went to the Sanford Police Department looking for answers - and his son's body. Police took him to a room and played some of the 911 recordings of neighbors who called to report a disturbance followed by a gunshot.

They did not play an earlier call to a police non-emergency line, during which Zimmerman reported a "suspicious guy" and ignored the operator's suggestion to quit following him. Investigator Chris Serino then took Martin to another room and told him Zimmerman's version of events.

Sanford police have stopped talking to reporters about the case, and Serino has never spoken publicly about his role in it, but here is how Martin recalls what Serino said: "He told me Zimmerman's story was that Zimmerman was of course following him and that Trayvon approached his vehicle, walked up to the car and asked Zimmerman, ‘Why are your following me?' Zimmerman then rolls his car windows down, tells Trayvon ‘I'm not following you.' He rolls his car windows up.

"Trayvon walks off. Zimmerman said he started running between the buildings. Zimmerman gets out of his car. He comes around the building. Trayvon is hiding behind the building, waiting on him. Trayvon approaches him and says, ‘What's your problem, homes?' Zimmerman says ‘I don't have a problem.'

"Zimmerman starts to reach into his pocket to get his cellphone, and at that point Trayvon attacked him. He says Trayvon hits him. He falls on the ground. Trayvon jumps on top of him, takes his left hand and covers Zimmerman's mouth and tells him to shut the F up and continues to pound on him.

"At that point Zimmerman is able to unholster his weapon and fire a shot, striking Trayvon in the chest. Trayvon falls on his back and says, 'You got me.'" The Martin family has been telling their story as part of a campaign to have Zimmerman arrested. He himself has kept quiet. (more in the article)

The problem with that is it is third-hand info. It is supposedly what Det. Serino told Tracy Martin and Tracy told his family who then told it to the press and others. As it says above at the end Tracy Martin himself hasn't told the press that. Another problem is that the first confrontation at the truck would have had to have happened before Zimmerman called the police dispatcher which doesn't make much sense since Zimmerman calmly describes Trayvon first noticing him while on the line with the dispatcher and Zimmerman gets out of his truck during that call. It just doesn't fit at all that there was a confrontation at the truck before Zimmerman made that call.

Really good links though. Thanks again.

178 posted on 04/14/2012 2:47:41 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Paisan

Yes, I know, you just copied it from post #136 from this thread. I was just clarifying the actual wording.


179 posted on 04/14/2012 2:50:37 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: zencycler
According to Martin's cell-phone friend, Martin asked, "What are you following me for?" and Zimmerman replied "What are you doing here?" I think this is what the prosecutor is using to claim Zimmmerman "confronted" Martin. Assuming this did occur, then Martin likely took off, ...

According to Martin's "cell-phone friend" (his girlfriend) the scuffle began a moment after Zimmerman said "What are you doing here?"

180 posted on 04/14/2012 3:10:16 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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