Fox news is the only data that we do have.
Fox news shows that Santorum supporters are breaking equally for Paul (30 percent), Newt (30 percent), Romney (20 percent), and the rest back to undecided.
Ron Paul is getting a bigger bounce than Newt.
Newt needs 100 percent of Santorum’s supporters to come to him, and he’s only getting 30.
With the current numbers, Romney’s going to win every remaining state.
You can’t make the mistake of applying national poll numbers to particular state contests. New York and Texas will have very different vote spreads.
The possibility is more to deny Romney the nomination, not to have Newt win outright. So votes going to Paul isn’t the worst thing that can happen.
With 11 days to go until the next primary, a lot of things can change too. I just hope Santorum doesn’t re-endorse Romney in the primary. That would be enough to make me never support him for any position again.