[JediJones]

You can’t make the mistake of applying national poll numbers to particular state contests. New York and Texas will have very different vote spreads.

The possibility is more to deny Romney the nomination, not to have Newt win outright. So votes going to Paul isn’t the worst thing that can happen.

With 11 days to go until the next primary, a lot of things can change too. I just hope Santorum doesn’t re-endorse Romney in the primary. That would be enough to make me never support him for any position again.

[JCBreckenridge]

Here’s the problem. Gingrich was at 20 percent when Mississippi and Alabama rolled around.

Gingrich is now at 12 percent. Romney was at 33, and is now at 46.

So Romney has strengthened 13 points while Gingrich has lost 8.

Gingrich needs to be at 20 percent in order to be competitive to Romney when he is at 33 percent in the South. Gingrich at 12, will only get about double that, 24 percent in the Southern states, which isn’t going to be enough to overcome Romney at 46, who will probably get about 35 in the South.

So I would say TX is 35-30-24-12, right now with Santorum at 30, and Gingrich at 24.

If Santorum support breaks 30/30/20, it ends up with 35(+8), 24(+11), 12(+11), or 43 - 35 - 23.

Romney’s up by about 8 in TX based on those national numbers. This is very bad news for Gingrich at this point, because it assumes that all of Santorum’s support moves over.