Posted on 04/06/2012 7:41:42 AM PDT by Qbert
This is interesting. There’s a lot of issues as to how this will be handled at the convention by the RNC as they explain below, but their numbers certainly look better than the media’s counts. I’m sure they will be analyzed quite at bit in the coming days:
The Media’s Delegate Math is WrongThere are a couple of fundamental flaws with the delegate counts that the media keeps that reveals that this race is much closer than they report:
1) Florida, Arizona, and quite possibly Puerto Rico will be proportional rather than Winner Take All. They broke RNC rules by going winner take all before the window and therefore RNC Members and/or the convention will enforce the rules and make the delegations proportional. This will reduce Romney’s delegate total substantially and increase the other three candidates’ respective delegate totals.
2) National Convention Delegates are elected at County, District, and State conventions rather than by the initial beauty contests in many states. For example, in Washington State Romney was allocated 25 delegates, Paul 8 delegates, Santorum 7 delegates, and Gingrich 0 delegates. The Santorum and Paul campaigns are working together in Washington State and the result will be more delegates for Santorum and Paul and a dramatic decrease in delegates for Romney. Santorum will also over perform in most other states that use this process and Romney will underperform.
3) Unbound delegates – The media continues to put unbound delegates in their counts in the territories and other states. These folks can change their mind, or have yet to make up their mind, and should not be counted as if they are bound.
The REAL Count
Our current internal count that takes into account ongoing county, district, and state conventions is as follows:
Romney – 571
Santorum – 342
Newt – 158
Paul – 91
Texas is Going Winner Take All
The state of Texas is in the process of announcing that they are going to go Winner Take All rather than proportional. This will have a dramatic impact on the delegate projections, tighten the race after Santorum wins Texas, and significantly hinder Romney’s capacity to ever get 1144 delegates because he will not get his proportion of the state. Simply put, this is a Game Changer. The race is almost even if you account for a Rick Santorum win in Texas under a Winner Take All system, and there is a clear Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich.
The Calendar Moves to May
The month of April was always going to be difficult but the calendar gets much more friendly for Rick Santorum in May. North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas might lead to Santorum winning roughly 7 out of 8 states in May, and heading into the June 5th primaries with a freight train of momentum.
Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich
The campaign continues to reach out to Newt Gingrich’s team to work together on County, State, and District conventions to prevent Romney from achieving 1144 and to elect a Conservative Majority of delegates.
Countdown to attacks on Santorum by those who supposedly want Romney to lose in 3-2-1...
LOL
Mark Levin was questioning the pro Romney delegate math a few days back.
So my Texas might yet still have an impact on this election?! Cool!
PING!
It’s a shame to see so many conservatives give up at this point and say, “Oh well, at least we tried!”.
In primaries you do not win a state just by getting the most votes.
Our Conservative candidates have proved conclusively that Conservative candidates get Conservative voters ~ and they are in the majority.
The "other kind" of voters are going for Mit and they are in a distinct minority, and do not represent the party base.
In the Virginia primary where there was NO Conservative candidate we had the smallest turnout since they began having primaries here.
And the people in charge of choosng the calculation method are the people who want Mitt. We are essentially stealing the election from ourselves so that Obama can beat us.
Santorum could have separated himself from the liberals by standing up for Augusta National’s right to have whatever gender members it wants.
The three points the writer brings up are all speculation.
For Florida/Arizona, the punishment of less delegates has already been enforced. The rule was if you were WTA, you couldnt schedule before a certain date. But the punishment for breaking the rule is to lose delegates, not to force the states into proportional delegates.
For Washington, if Santorum and Paul work together, it may raise Santorum’s numbers, but wont really affect Romney’s (on a side note, where are the Santorum people complaining about trying to change delegates they way everyone was complaining about Paul in Mn/Mo/Me)
For the unbound, what makes the writer think a majority will go to Santorum? They might, but it is all speculation on that. The same way as counting Ia, Mn, Mo delegates was speculation early on.
I think the establishment lives in fear that the Santorum candidacy may get a gasp of air in PA and come roaring back in May. Once again I heard in Wisconsin voters saying that they preferred Santorum, but were voting Romney because they were buying the establishment’s argument that this had to end to beat Obama. I remember hearing the strategic voting argument from some voters in FL earlier. Then this thing got away from the establishment when Santorum pulled the hat trick in the midwest, and voters had a momentary inkling that a more conservative candidate was just as viable against Obama. That’s why they need Santorum to quit on his own. This is to unstable and dangerous. I had a Romney supporter call for a donation yesterday and ask for $400 out of the box. Wow, Mitt thinks I make $10k bets.
Romney shows little concern for conservatives as he grabs delegates in the most liberal areas of the country. Detroit, Chicago, Cincinnati etc. He’s doing exactly what I said when he won the straw poll in Michigan, just stepping over the people on the way to HIS goal and to hell with what we little people want.
Last week I was looking at a county by county map that showed that Santorum had won nearly 1000 flyover country counties and Romney had won in less than 500 primarily urban counties.
The whole thing is just wishful thinking. In addition to the points you make, the article claims Texas is going "winner take all". Texas is almost certainly NOT going "winner take all". The Santorum campaign is pushing for such a change, but the odds of that actually happening are next to none and none.
Imagine that- a big red state actually having a say in the GOP nominating process...
I know I heard Rove say those states were not proportional. It's stupid to get worked up about this anyway. Only a fool goes to the casino thinking he has just as much chance to win as the house.
This campaign has been an eye opener, though. I now see FOX as just another propaganda machine. They complain about the left wing media distorting and taking things out of context, and they do exactly the same thing.
I'm in Texas visiting now....IT'S A GREAT STATE!!!....and Lord Willing, Texas will put Santorum over the top
PRESS ON SANTORUM!
No it's not. They need approval from the RNC to do so, and the RNC has already said they won't issue a waiver.
"Santorum could have separated himself from the liberals by standing up for Augusta National’s right to have whatever gender members it wants."
Normally I would agree on that- but I think the time is now to put Obama on the defensive. We shouldn't just react to every Obama-generated faux controversy- every minute that we are responding to his newest lame argument is a minute that we are not attacking him on his abysmal record. (He wants it this way, of course, to distract people).
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