Ipsos: 85%-99% chance of Obama winning

Washington Examiner ^ | 040312 | Paul Bedard

[Fred]

Mitt Romney’s slow but seemingly successful trudge to the GOP nomination aside, President Obama is a virtual lock to win a second term, according to a blockbuster election analysis by Ipsos. The bottom line, said Ipsos’ polling director Clifford Young: If Obama’s weak approval rating stays at 47 percent, there is an 85 percent chance he wins reelection. Should it rise to 50 percent or better, which is the goal of the Obama-Biden campaign, he stands a 99 percent chance of winning.

“The Republican primaries are nothing more than an interesting side-show to an eventual Obama victory,” said Young, managing director of Ipsos Public Affairs’ U.S. polling. He tells Secrets: “Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?”

[svcw]

You say it’s nonsense - tell me what part is incorrect.

[CommerceComet]

I don’t remember too many republicans being all that fired-up when Bob Dole was the standard-bearer.

But how many Republicans did you hear say that under no circumstances would they vote for Bob Dole? I have at least a dozen people in my circle of acquaintances who have voted for Republican candidates their entire lives but who won't vote for Romney.

[gogogodzilla]

I don’t trust anything that predicts elections with a 99% chance.

That’s like Saddam’s Iraq or Kim Jong-Un’s North Korea for electioneering.

[kabar]

All of it.

[svcw]

So you are actually saying that Romney does not support:
gun grabbers
abortion
the homosexual agenda
big government
government mandates
man made global warming
working with democrats
the language of the left
welfare
Wow, you really have not been paying attention to his words.

[mountainbunny]

Romney can win if you guys will quit beating on him...

And then what? In what way is Romney any different than Obama?

If you discount what Romney says, and go by his record, what are the major differences between Romney and Obama?

No one I have ever asked has been able to answer. "It's obvious!" "Don't be silly!" and such are not answers. I'm looking for specific, concrete ways in which Romney's record is different from Obama.

Difficulty: Talking =/= Record

[svcw]

There aren’t any.

[woofie]

What good does all the pessimism do ? FR is now a home for unhappy morticians.

I dont care who runs Obama is gonna lose big time

[kabar]

It is not just me that is saying that, it is Romney.

Read his policy positions on the issues. They are clearly different than Obama's whether it is abortion, the 2nd amendment, immigration, etc.

[svcw]

Ok, you are correct his (today’s) policy positions are different than BHO.
Silly me I was just going by decades of his words, actions, and governance.
A piece of paper in a campaign is way important than the way Romney has lived his life both politically and privately.

[kabar]

You said, Wow, you really have not been paying attention to his words.

I have been paying attention to his words. I firmly believe that if elected Romney will issue a wavier to Obamacare for all 50 states and work for its repeal. I expect Romney will support measures to open federal lands for greater exploration of energy resources. I believe he will work to reduce taxes. I believe he will not make drastic cuts to defenese, including eliminating anti-missile defense. I expect him to reduce the size of the federal government and to reduce spending. He will support entitlement reform. He will not govern using czars and the EPA will be reined in.

I could go on and on about how a Romney or any Rep in the WH would be far different than the radical Marxist who is there now and who wants to transform America through class warfare and racial division. Four more years of community organizeer Obama will destroy this country. To say there is virtually no real difference between Obama and Romney is pure sophistry. I will support anybody but Obama given the stakes at hand.

[svcw]

Ok, you beleive what you want.
Romney is a fraud, what he says today has no baring on what he said yesterday or will say tomorrow.
We all have access to decades of his actions, words and governance, if you are choosing to beleive his current words over history, that is of course your right.
It is my right not to support another stink’n liberal.
Have a nice day.

[kabar]

We will just agree to disagree. Have a swell day.

[napscoordinator]

At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.

Romney is no Reagan. Romney will lose and lose big.

[jmaroneps37]

Always remember “Ipsos” means "Democrat scumbag" in some foreign language.

[jmaroneps37]

One other point: where are all the scared to death Freepers who agree with this prediction? You say Obama is a dog with no chance to win and get flamed here so where are the “See I told you so!” Freepers?