[so_real]

The upcoming March/April primaries are : Louisiana, District of Columbia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. That's 375 delegates inside the next four weeks.

Now name one of these states that Gingrich has even a remote chance of winning.

Gingrich may be the smartest guy in the room; I've said so myself. But the baggage that comes with him is too heavy for the common man to bear apparently. I know Louisiana will break for Santorum. I believe my home state of Wisconsin will break for Santorum as will Maryland. I would bet money on Pennsylvania. The surrounding east coast states of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island (and similarly D.C.) will be battle grounds ... head to head between Romney and Santorum ... with zero opportunity for Gingrich or Paul.

It all boils down to: do you trust the delegate negotiating that comes with a contested convention to work in our favor? Or can you live with Santorum for four years? The only other option is Romney. I, for one, will not live with that for four years. Much better to deal with Obama for two years and fill the houses with conservatives in 2014. Let him try to rule by fiat and see how far that gets him.

[entropy12]

By April 24th, we will know results of LA, MD, DC, WI, CT, DE, NY, PA & RI. That is a total of 401 delegates.

Romney has 497, Santorum has 183, Newt has 135 Committed delegates according to Wiki.

If Santorum wins 50% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 183+.50x401 =384 delegates.

If Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 497 + .30x401= 617 delegates.

After April 24th, there are 796 delegates remaining to be won.

Santorum needs to win (1144-384)/796 x 100 = 95.5% of remaining delegates to get to 1144.
Mathematically possible, in reality, impossible.

Romney needs to win (1144-617)/796 x 100 = 66% of remaining delegates. Mathematically possible, in reality improbable.

Conclusion? We are going to a brokered convention. And that convention is highly unlikely to pick a 2nd place winner. So if Romney does not get it, it will be some one else from the sidelines.