[tnlibertarian]

Whoa. That’s what we get for laughing at the earthquake predicting thread from this morning. They were two days early.

[dirtboy]

Whoa. That’s what we get for laughing at the earthquake predicting thread from this morning. They were two days early.

7.9 is a strong earthquake, but it is not catastrophic. Sometimes predictions get lucky through sheer timing against events that come to pass.

[commish]

That’s what we get for laughing at the earthquake predicting thread from this morning. They were two days early.

While it is fun to chuckle at those dolts, this quake is close enough to Baja to have put some real pressure on the San Andreas.

[Carriage Hill]

I read that one early this morning, but can’t remember the name or find it in a search, t. Do you have a link to it?

[hope]

hey, I missed that thread :) do you have a link or a title so I can check it out?

[dirtboy]

Whoa. That’s what we get for laughing at the earthquake predicting thread from this morning. They were two days early.

Let's take a look at similar earthquakes in 2010 - 7.5 and stronger. There were four of them (I'm not using 2011 because of the Japan earthquake and all of its aftershocks don't make it a good point of comparison:

USGS - 2010 Earthquake list

Magnitude 7.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA April 06, 2010
Magnitude 7.5 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION June 12, 2010
Magnitude 7.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES July 23, 2010
Magnitude 7.7 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA October 25, 2010

Four earthquakes. Giving your window of this happening within two days, that means a four-day window for a given quake to seem to have some correlation.

Four quakes times four days, and that's sixteen days. That means a random prediction had a 4.3 percent chance (16/365) of random correlation to a 7.5+ quake in 2010.

Lots of folks play the Pick 3 in the state lottery with far worse odds. Some even think their particular numbers are lucky.