Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: tnlibertarian
Whoa. That’s what we get for laughing at the earthquake predicting thread from this morning. They were two days early.

Let's take a look at similar earthquakes in 2010 - 7.5 and stronger. There were four of them (I'm not using 2011 because of the Japan earthquake and all of its aftershocks don't make it a good point of comparison:

USGS - 2010 Earthquake list

Magnitude 7.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA April 06, 2010
Magnitude 7.5 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION June 12, 2010
Magnitude 7.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES July 23, 2010
Magnitude 7.7 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA October 25, 2010

Four earthquakes. Giving your window of this happening within two days, that means a four-day window for a given quake to seem to have some correlation.

Four quakes times four days, and that's sixteen days. That means a random prediction had a 4.3 percent chance (16/365) of random correlation to a 7.5+ quake in 2010.

Lots of folks play the Pick 3 in the state lottery with far worse odds. Some even think their particular numbers are lucky.

59 posted on 03/20/2012 12:01:07 PM PDT by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies ]


To: dirtboy

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0008m7e.php

5.1 aftershock


61 posted on 03/20/2012 12:02:35 PM PDT by ltc8k6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies ]

To: dirtboy

Let’s not jump the gun here. This one is a day or two short. Now if we get a big one on exactly the 22nd or within a few hours of the 22nd, the 188 day theory gets real interesting, IMO.


67 posted on 03/20/2012 12:09:56 PM PDT by Errant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson