Your analysis is not confirmed by this poll:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153308/Romney-Santorum-Tie-Gingrich-Voters-Second-Choice.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Politics
Romney will get LESS delegates if Newt stays in based on above poll.
I don't think the poll is correct.