Posted on 03/15/2012 7:44:14 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The latest FOX News poll of Republican voters supports Newt Gingrich’s strange-sounding assertion that his presence in the race is actually a benefit to rival Rick Santorum.
Gingrich casts the advantage to Santorum in a tactical sense, saying that the two of them together divide Romney’s attention and bleed the Republican frontrunner of his money. Gingrich argues that Romney’s success is attributable to negative ads and out-spending that cannot be replicated in a general election and so, therefore he should be bled and blocked so that someone else can get the nomination at the end of August.
Santorum supporters have argued that the time has long since come for Gingrich to drop out of the race so that Santorum can unite the right and defeat Romney outright before the convention.
But with Romney so far ahead on delegates, Santorum would need to win 66 percent of the remaining delegates to win, a tough task for someone who has won only 27 percent so far. Even if he had won all of the delegates Gingrich had won so far, Santorum would only have 41 percent of the total, still 12 percent behind Romney.
The poll suggests, though, that the reality of a Gingrich-less race might not even be as good as that for Santorum.
Gingrich polls at 13 percent in the latest survey, one point better than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 19 points behind Santorum and 25 points behind frontrunner Romney.
But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too.
While Santorum would move up, Romney would be pushed even closer to the finish line......
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
“It would seem to me that either one would have a better shot without the other. Am I missing something here? BTW, I’m not making a case against either of them.”
The thinking goes something like this:
Neither Santorum nor Gingrich is likely to get the needed delegates at this point. The only realistic option they have (Santorum more than Gingrich) is to deny Romney as many delegates as possible. Some Santorum folks refuse to vote for Gingrich and vice versa (just look around FR for confirmation). If both stay in, conservatives can cast a ballot for their favored candidate that isn’t Romney and deny him a coronation in Tampa.
Then one can toss his delegates to the other and Romney can go home, never to be seen or heard from again. Newt despises Romney and will do anything at this point to deny him delegates. Whether or not this is a viable strategy remains to be seen.
Polls indicate Romney vs. Santorum very close, while Obama vs. Santorum is a tie.
Given the winner take all format which takes effect after April 1, I'm still having problems grasping how a split conservative vote hurts Romney. Does anyone actually believe that a majority of Gingrich supporters would support Romney over Santorum?
The only way I see this strategy working is if Gingrich could win a few states? If so, which ones?
This argument really doesn’t make much sense. Two conservatives are splitting the vote, and Mitt is profiting by that.
And since Newt hasn’t been doing very well, Mitt has concentrated his attacks on Santorum. You can see it on Drudge’s website, where there are constant photos and headlines extolling Mitt and damning Rick. They were bashing Newt earlier, but at the moment they’re pretty much ignoring him.
I’m not saying that Newt has to drop out. That’s his choice. But it is damaging the conservative position at the moment.
The essential thing is to keep Romney from getting a winning number of delegates on the first vote at the convention. But that is harder to do with the two conservatives splitting the vote.
When we are then committed, they will unload a whole lot more than the Paterno/Sandusky scandal. There is “K” Street, the stillborn 8th child, as well as many of Santorum’s corrupt dealings that awarded him the vote for “Most corrupt” Senator.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. There are volumes about him ready to come out when the time is right.
This is why I am making such a hard effort to get the facts out about Santorum, to reverse this brainless infatuation the base has with him.
>>Newt staying in also acts as an “insurance policy” in case something unforseen causes Rick’s campaign to “tank.”
This is an extremely good point, and one that is rarely considered in this debate.
Don’t worry, I am very keene to it! If you knew what I know about Santorum, that is a very likely possibility. It makes Newt look like an Eagle Scout!
While he really wants the Presidency (something his detractors call “overbearing ego”), he is probably the one who cares more for the Nation than any of the others in the race. I can’t vote for Romney, but would do another “settle” for Santorum. Newt’s the only guy left I would vote for with some enthusiasm. I wonder if it would have turned out any different in MS and AL if he had, in fact, announced at least an intention to grab Perry as his Veep. Mississippi had depressingly low turnout and from atlking with folks, many feel that Romeny won’t be stopped and that if he’s the guy, they’ll vote Obama instead to try to force the People over the edge to fight for the future. I wish they had come out in bigger numbers because they all consider Newt the best chance even though they don’t see him pulling it off. I voted Newt and wish I could have voted for a bunch who didn’t show.
Those polls are next to worthless. At this point in the contest when Reagan beat Carter he was down 30 points.
I base my post on over 50 years following this stuff. I am telling ya, Rick does not have crossover appeal. He will need it in the general. Romney has crossover appeal but can not excite the base. Newt could do both.
The lack of political instinct out in the public at large is astounding. I give President Obama at least a 70 percent chance of retaining his position, as of what I see right now. The money agrees with me.
You can’t beat Obama by saying, Hey I am not Obama. You will have to beat him with ideas and conservative principles. Rick has principles but struggles with message. It is a good message delivered in a way that only a certain segment of the population understands and will respond to. Mitt is hopeless, no message and no ability to muster one. We are screwed without a brokered convention with a different candidate or Newt raising again.
Biden is a year older than Newt.
Newt staying in also acts as an “insurance policy” in case something unforseen causes Rick’s campaign to “tank.”
If both stay in, conservatives can cast a ballot for their favored candidate that isn’t Romney and deny him a coronation in Tampa.
I have been debating whether to switch to Santorum from Newt. I think these 2 points drive home my desire to support Newt full steam. Is a brokered convention a good thing? I don’t know. Would it lead to Obama being reelected? Possibly. Would Romney being President change anything? I say no.
IF Newt gets out whose to say he won’t support Romney?
Haven't you been paying attention? He is the one making an issue out of the fact that Romney needs to be stopped.
Concur. I expect they're doing the same w/Romney also.
Newt's been so thoroughly vetted (we're talking endoscopy here) that I doubt there is anything we don't know about him. The real problem is there is a lot of popular mythology about what Newt is BELIEVED to have done that is much worse than what he actually did.
Biden is a year older than Newt.
Totally agree. Just sent Newt another $100.
I believe that in both Mississippi and Alabama any candidate that received more than 50% of the vote would have gotten ALL of the delegates. With no one getting 50% the distribution was proportional.
If Newt had not been in the race, Santorum would have easily have won more than the required 50% and received all of the delegates.....and Romney and Paul would have received none. That would have made him the overall delegate winner for the evening.
I think that all of the states which are required to award on a proportional basis by the RNC have a similar setup.
From the survey in the article:
"But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too."
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Newt can coalesce all factions of the party.
this is correct and something people STILL refuse to see.
If what happened in MS and AL, with Romney getting a 1/3 of the delegates repeats itself across other favorable Anti-Romney states of WV, NC, KY, AR, LA, MO, TX, NE, and SD, then Romney will EASILY hit 1,144 before the convention.
I encourage everyone to go to the Green Papers website and review the rules for the remaining states and play it out. Newt staying in means 100% Romney nomination.
However, you are correct, in many of these states, the Anti-Romney gets 50% or more, they get the massive bulk of the delegates.
One thing to look for on the Calendar. April 24 is a big day. It’s got PA and NY and a bunch of NE states. If Santorum get do well delegate-wise in NY, win PA, and pull off an upset in DE, he is poised to have an OUTSTANDING May, because the states that vote in May are all in the South/Midwest and Include:
Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Nebraska, Indiana
It is very possible Santorum would sweep all of these states in a two-man race, which would give him the maximum amount of momentum going into final Super Tuesday on June 5 with California, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, and New Jersey. Romney would be going a month without a victory by the June 5 primaries. This should allow Santorum to pick up at least 1/3-1/2 of the delegates in CA, and make him the favorite in SD, MT, and competitive in NJ and NM. If Romney is under 1,104 at the end of June 5th, the convention will likely be brokered (UT gives Romney his 40 delegates on June 19).
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