Newt’s Logic: Why Gingrich Isn’t Getting Out of GOP Race

Not many Newt articles today, but I'm still with the only one who will change DC... until the last dog dies.

Perhaps it takes a "leap of faith"; but if this little one's willing, I am, too. -:)

Newt knows how to get things done, and he’s not afraid to do what’s necessary.

Despite what I wrote to you earlier, this article actually makes a lot of sense once you sit down and do the math.

Others would disagree:

Here’s one analysis

By Matthew Jaffe
@matthewbjaffe
Matthew Jaffe is covering the 2012 campaign for ABC News and Univision.
Mar 8, 2012

How Gingrich’s Refusal To Quit Has Hurt Santorum, Benefited Bitter Rival Romney

Analysis

If a thank-you note arrives in Newt Gingrich’s mailbox in McLean, Virginia, the former House Speaker shouldn’t be surprised if it’s from Mitt Romney: the likely Republican presidential nominee may have Gingrich to thank for his frontrunner status.

In a surprising development, given Gingrich’s intense dislike of Romney, Gingrich has been indirectly responsible for some of Romney’s recent successes in the GOP primary. If Gingrich had dropped out of the race, say, after his resounding defeat in Florida in January, the dynamic of the Republican contest could be drastically different today.

In the month since Florida’s primary, Santorum has suffered narrow defeats to Romney in Ohio and Michigan, defeats which have made it all but impossible for him to win the nomination – and defeats which might have been victories had it not been for Gingrich’s continued presence in the race.

On Tuesday in Ohio, for instance, Santorum apparently lost to Romney by only about 10,000 votes, a mere 0.8 percent margin of defeat. 175,000 voters, however, backed Gingrich that day and, polling shows, if he had not been on the ballot, Santorum would have benefited more than Romney and would have had a better chance of winning.

Sixty-three percent of voters in the Ohio Republican primary – the largest amount for any candidate – said the would be satisfied if Santorum were the party’s nominee. Fewer – 57 percent – said they would be satisfied with Romney. Fewer than half – 48 percent – said they would be satisfied with Gingrich.

Romney may also benefited from Gingrich’s presence in other states such as Alaska and Georgia. In Alaska, Romney squeaked out a win over Santorum by a little more than 400 votes. In that race, more than 1,800 voters, including Sarah Palin, backed Gingrich.

In Georgia, meanwhile, Gingrich’s home state, the former House Speaker cruised to an easy victory with 47 percent of the vote, trailed by Romney with 25 percent and Santorum with 19 percent.

39 percent of Gingrich supporters said Santorum’s policy positions were “about right.” Only 23 percent of Gingrich supporters said the same about Mitt Romney.

Give Santorum victories in Ohio, Alaska and Georgia and suddenly the GOP race looks a little bit different. While Romney would still be ahead in the delegate count – and still the favorite to eventually secure the nomination – Santorum would stand a much better chance at mounting a serious challenge for the party’s nod, especially with the former Pennsylvania senator favored to win a slew of the upcoming primary states, such as Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and Missouri.

That fact is not lost on Santorum’s campaign, which has vociferously called on Gingrich to leave the race. As Super Tuesday wound down, Santorum’s national communications director Hogan Gidley said a head-to-head matchup with Santorum was Romney’s “worst nightmare”, but that the continued presence of Gingrich and Ron Paul was preventing that from occurring.

“Look at the numbers… we’d be winning these states by ten points,” Gidley said. “You’re talking about the anti-Romney vote being split three ways.”

The next morning Santorum’s Super PAC – the Red, White and Blue Fund – followed suit, calling on Gingrich to abandon the race so that “conservatives would be able to make a choice between a consistent conservative in Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney.”

“With Gingrich out of the race, Santorum would have won both Ohio and Michigan,” Stuart Roy, an RWB Fund adviser, said. “Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative.”

The former director of Gingrich’s South Carolina campaign even added her voice to the growing number of calls for Gingrich to get out now, although DeLinda Ridings wants Gingrich to exit not to give Santorum a better chance, but so Republicans can coalesce around Romney.

Despite Roy’s claim, it is unclear if in fact Santorum would have been able to win Romney’s home state of Michigan if Gingrich had not been in the race. Romney defeated Santorum there by a little more than 32,000 votes. Gingrich that day earned around 65,000 votes. That means Santorum would have had to win a huge percentage of those Gingrich votes – better than a 2-to-1 margin.

According to the New York Times’ Nate Silver, Gingrich’s absence would not have been enough for Santorum to triumph in the state.

“He would not have won Michigan – Mr. Gingrich received very few votes there so there was little marginal benefit to Mr. Santorum – although it would have flipped one Congressional district and therefore given him the majority of delegates in the state,” Silver wrote on his Five Thirty Eight blog on the New York Times’ website.

Overall, Silver wrote, if Gingrich had exited the race before South Carolina’s primary in January – which he won – Santorum would have emerged victorious in four states that he lost: South Carolina, Georgia, Alaska and Ohio.

But Romney would still be leading where it matters, in delegates.
“Mr. Romney would still be significantly ahead in the delegate count,” Silver said. “I have him with 404 delegates versus 264 for Mr. Santorum and 71 for Mr. Paul. Mr. Romney’s delegate total, in fact, is very slightly higher than it would have been before the redistribution of the vote.

There are cases when the shift in votes costs him delegates, such as in winner-take-all districts, or when one of his opponents gains more votes and crosses a threshold that enables him to receive proportional delegates.

But Mr. Romney is being given some votes under these assumptions – if not, as many as Mr. Santorum – and that helps in cases where the delegate allocation is more proportional. These factors came close to balancing out, but Mr. Romney gained about 10 delegates on net.”

“Mr. Santorum, however, made the larger gains, winning about 110 delegates than he has taken in the real world with Mr. Gingrich on the ballot,” he concluded.

On Wednesday Santorum acknowledged that he “wanted” Gingrich out of the race, but stopped short of calling on his opponent to step aside.
“I’m not saying I don’t want him to get out. If he wants to get out, I’m all for him getting out. I’m for Mitt Romney getting out. I wish President Obama would just hand me the thing, but that’s not going to happen,” Santorum said in Lenexa, Kansas.

Gingrich, though, has said he isn’t going anywhere… except on to campaign stops in upcoming primary states like Alabama and Mississippi, states his campaign calls must-wins. “We’re staying in this race because I believe it’s going to be impossible for a moderate to win the general election,” Gingrich said Wednesday in Montgomery, Alabama.

Earlier in the day, Gingrich said on “The Bill Bennett Show” that he might drop out if he thought Santorum could knock out Romney and Obama.
“If I thought he was a slam dunk to beat Romney and to beat Obama, I would really consider getting out,” Gingrich said. “I don’t.”

Considering Gingrich has waged a bitter primary battle with Romney, depicting the former Massachusetts governor as a lying, hypocritical moderate, it is a little surprising that he now intends to stay in the race even if that benefits Romney.

On January 26 in Florida, as Romney launched an astounding barrage of attack ads against Gingrich – Romney and his allies spent over $15 million on ads in the state and all but one of those ads was negative. Gingrich has since then ripped into Romney, denouncing his campaign, his background, and his character.

“To have his campaign take on a lifetime of work and lie about it, frankly I do find infuriating,” Gingrich railed. “I think it is one of the most dishonest things I’ve seen in politics. It is so fundamentally abusive.”

“Here’s a guy a who owns Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stock. He owns a Goldman Sachs subsidiary that forecloses on Floridians. He is surrounded by lobbyists who are paid by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to stop reform. And on that front he decides to lie about my career? There’s something about that hypocrisy that should make every Americas angry.”

“I am angry,” he continued. “But I think I’m angry and every American should be angry. How can somebody run a campaign this dishonest and think he’s going to have any credibility running for president?”

Only four days later, in an interview with ABC News in Tampa, Gingrich continued to denounce Romney, saying he has “a profound character problem.”

“He governed as a liberal who was pro-abortion, pro-gun rights, pro-tax increases, and pro-gay rights. Appointed liberal judges. Passed Romneycare,” Gingrich said.

But now this is the same rival who Gingrich is indirectly helping by staying in a race that has left him beaten, bruised, and with virtually no shot at all of winning the nomination. He has only won two states – South Carolina and Georgia – compared to six for Santorum, not counting Missouri, which last month held a primary – won by Santorum – but it was known at the time that the primary would not affect the state’s delegate allocation in favor of caucuses in March.

Ultimately, playing the game of “what might have been?” is a pointless exercise. Gingrich didn’t drop out after his loss in Florida. Santorum didn’t win Ohio, Georgia, and Alaska. And Romney now has a huge – seemingly insurmountable – lead in the Republican race, with 401 delegates compared to 177 for Santorum.

The only thing left is for Romney to secure the 1,144 needed to lock up the nomination… and perhaps send that thank-you note to Gingrich.

2) Romney is then able to aim all of his considerable firepower at Santorum, destroying him with negative ads the way he twice destroyed Gingrich (in Iowa and Florida).

This is where his thinking falls apart. Just like Newts fabled Southern Strategy was a bust, the idea that the attack ads are affecting Rick the same that they did Newt isn't panning out either. Rick has been the singular focus of the Milt Smear machine since CO and it is not having the impact that it did to Newt. Ricks approvals are still solid and he is getting results by besting Milt in state contests. What else can Milt possibly do other than melt down on a CNN interview about Rick. Oh yeah, he already did that.

I’m with you :)

Look at it the other way: it is a certainty that Santorum cannot win enough delegates to secure the nomination.

So the two choices now are to a) do what Newt says here and force an open convention, or b) for one or the other to quit and thus assure that Romney is the nominee.

Those are the options as I see it.

Let’s talk after Illinois.

Perhaps I haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't recall seeing Romney taking a majority of ANY state. The majority, knowing as well as all of us that the media chose Romney for us a long time ago, refuse to ratify the media's choice.

It is at the convention that the delegates will decide whether, given that their candidate cannot win, they will vote for Romney or someone else. That's how it works. Good for Newt for realizing this.

Romney reminds me so much of Schwarzenegger here in Kalifornia, claiming not to be a liberal and yet never seeming to do anything but support liberal causes.

I see the same two options.

Take it all the way to Tampa Newt Gingrich. :-)

Great picture.

Yes, I am supporting Newt for a convention fight.

Maybe, Romney and Ricky will have more vetting by then as well.. Our country is so at a crossroads. Go, Newt. No Romneycare, no Bushie.

There is a good interview with Newt on
www.gretawire.com

Still others will disagree even more,

And then some.

Both Newt and Rick will be in until the convention.

Load up on beer and pop corn and relax, 'cause bitching about it will only give you heartburn.

Good Lord, steelfish, just like Santorum — long winded and just taking up space. -:)

Til the last dog dies. Victory or death!

Well sorry about that- but then again it was from an ABC reporter. Maybe I should have just posted his link. But again detailed voting pattern analyses cannot be written in monosyllabic grunts.

I’m with both of you, and a LOT of us are.

Maybe I should have just posted his link.
**************
Yes, you should have. -:) No worries.

You’re right. Once again, truth is simple :-)