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Newt is on FOX now. He just made two good points for not dropping out. He pointed out:

1. Rick Santorum went head-to-head with Romney in Ohio and lost and Michigan and lost.

2. If Romney has only one opponent to pour his money and negative ads into rather than two candidates, he will clean his opponent’s clock.

Newt could be right.

Newt could be right.

Well, yeah. Like him or hate him, you have to admit that Newt is a strategic thinker. That's why he doesn't waste money trying to win meaningless, no-delegate primaries in Missouri, while Santorum pours money down the toilet to grab a headline. That's why he's still in this thing period, despite having only won two states so far.

And Santorum's supporters tend to be the same way. They pat themselves on the back for winning two primaries by less than 4% that Santorum should easily have had by double digits, and would have three weeks ago. In politics, there really is such a thing as momentum, and for the past three weeks, Newt's has been upward and Santorum's has been downward. They can chirrip about it all they like, but that fact remains true. Newt overperformed, and Santorum underperformed. That happened because of the longer-term trending going on - something that I'm sure Newt's staffers can recognise as easily as I can, and which is why he's still saying he's in it till Tampa, even when the short-term thinkers are flabbergasted and astounded that he hasn't conceded tonight.

Rick Santorum went head-to-head with Romney in Ohio and lost and Michigan and lost.

BARELY and despite being outspent 12-1 in Ohio.

And, Romney, at some point soon, isn't going to be able to keep spending that sort of money on smearing his opponents.

Newt went head-to-head with Romney in Florida and was beaten by double digits.

At some point reality has to set in and you're going to have realize it is Santorum or Romney. And, Santorum is the better choice.

If Newt can't win in AL and MS its hard to think of any other states he can win. He may pick up some delegates, but is a candidate who's only won two states going to get the nod in a brokered convention. Far more likely the establishment would anoint someone new than someone Obama would paint as an already 48 state loser. In a brokered convention Newt, in or out now, would probably have the third greatest number of delegates and become a powerbroker, but no way would he lead the ticket. CNN's analysis of how things might go, in what they characterized as best case scenarios for Santorum, with Newt in vs. with Newt out. Might still get to brokered convention with Newt in, but Romney would be real close to a majority. CNN didn't say it, but Paul's delegates could put Mitt over the top. In any case Mitt would have enough of a lead it would be hard to argue Santorum should get the nod. With Newt out CNN says Santorum can come very close to catching Mitt, but probably not quite catch him. Which would give Newt more influence at the convention.

Santorum's team put out a release earlier today claiming Mitt won't get near as many delegates as the media is granting him (and as CNN granted in their simulation.) I don't know enough to evaluate their claims, I can only relay their summary. Part was based on FL and AZ having gone winner take all contrary to GOP rules. They claim that will be overturned at the convention. Newt's fight to get a share of FL is well known here; AZ would be comparable and would be a sweet hit on McCain. Their other claim, which is more nebulous, but may more significant. They claim Rick's forces are out maneuvering others in caucus states as they progress through county and district levels. That they'll get more delegates than expected and Mitt fewer than expected. There has been minimal news coverage other than the usual wild Ronulan claims. Iowa had its county conventions Saturday. Rick's guy claimed Romney and Paul were wiped out there. My Scott county (Davenport) convention was covered by the local rag, but little was said about any changes... except that Ron Paul's guys were whining big time. Apparently Paul's guys tried to stage coups in several counties.