This past week, one campaign strategist with ties to the Romney campaign laid out Mitt’s problem to me. A back of the envelope count shows the likely number of delegates Romney will have by April 1, due to the proportion distribution of candidates up to that point.
After April 1, a winner-takes-all system kicks in. My source says that if Romney wins every single primary after April 1, his tally goes up to about 1,200 delegates, making him the winner.
“So if Romney stumbles and loses one or more primaries, he likely falls short of the 1,144,” the source said.
As we can see, there is a good likelihood Romney will lose one or more primaries after April 1. If either Santorum or Gingrich are still in the race by May, Romney will undoubtedly lose the delegate-rich state of Texas.
To date, Romney’s performance has been weak. Take for example, his Super Tuesday results. He narrowly won Ohio after outspending Rick Santorum by 12-to-1.
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and what does he have to show for it? Not much.
“Ed Rollins tells News Max Romany can’t win in Nov.”
Which is precisely why he’s the Dems and the lame-stream media’s favorite GOP candidate.
I wonder what Romney’s use of fuzzy math would mean for the budget should he defy all logic and actually become POTUS?
How in hell can a conservative vote for this guy and think he wont screw us?He will and I will not be played.
Wow, he finally gets something right.
!!!!!!!
Does anyone actually believe that if Romney got over 1,000 votes, but fell short of 1,144, the delegates at the convention (also known as the “Republican Establishment”) would award the nomination to Ricky or Newt, or even some as yet unnamed (and unvetted) dark horse? I don’t like the SOB (Mitt) either, but if he gets to 1,000 before the convention, it’s time for the other candidates to make their platform demands, and step aside.
BOTH SANTORUM AND NEWT HAVE TO STAY IN THE RACE TO SIPHON VOTES AND DELEGATES AWAY FROM ROMNEY BY GIVING REPUBLICAN VOTERS MORE ANTI-ROMNEY CHOICES TO VOTE FOR. SOME MIGHT LIKE SANTORUM BUT NOT NEWT AND VICE VERSA.
THE COMMON OBJECTIVE IS TO DENY PRO-ABORTION, PRO-HOMOSEXUAL, PRO-FEDERAL-CONTROL HEALTHCARE CANDIDATE FROM GETTING NOMINATED.
SEAN HANNITY APPEARS TO FAVOR ROMNEY AND IT COMES AS NO SURPRISE. RADIO STATIONS HE IS ON OWNED BY ROMNEY.
Then I've been thinking I'm going to have to eat my words.
I'm hoping that I don't have to eat my words.
It should be painfully obvious that Romney can’t win in November. He has been running for POTUS for the last 8 years and has spent millions in campaign organizations in key states like Iowa, yet Santorum comes from no place to take Iowa, nearly wins in Romney’s home state of Michigan. Even in the states Romney carried, his wins were largely because the other candidates spent little time or money there. Romney cannot close the deal with rank and file Republicans how the heck can he sell independents and disaffected Democrats in November?