This past week, one campaign strategist with ties to the Romney campaign laid out Mitt’s problem to me. A back of the envelope count shows the likely number of delegates Romney will have by April 1, due to the proportion distribution of candidates up to that point.
After April 1, a winner-takes-all system kicks in. My source says that if Romney wins every single primary after April 1, his tally goes up to about 1,200 delegates, making him the winner.
“So if Romney stumbles and loses one or more primaries, he likely falls short of the 1,144,” the source said.
As we can see, there is a good likelihood Romney will lose one or more primaries after April 1. If either Santorum or Gingrich are still in the race by May, Romney will undoubtedly lose the delegate-rich state of Texas.
To date, Romney’s performance has been weak. Take for example, his Super Tuesday results. He narrowly won Ohio after outspending Rick Santorum by 12-to-1.
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and what does he have to show for it? Not much.
He lost Iowa.
He lost South Carolina.
He lost Missouri and Minnesota.
So far he’s lost almost every Southern state. On Tuesday we saw landslides for Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Tennessee. And states that should be “easy” Mitt wins, like his home state of Michigan, he only squeaked by after spending millions in attack ads there.
The state he’s won handily, he did so by running brutally negative ads against his fellow Republicans.
Ed Rollins, the genius behind Reagan’s brilliant 1984 re-election, said on Fox News the overall voting trends for Romney are not good.
Rollins observes that Romney has done really well in blue-state primaries. But Republicans won’t win these states this November. Rollins adds that Romney loses badly in many red states — ones he must carry in November.
So Romney has almost all the money, all the big endorsements from the Washington and New York insiders, and a well-oiled campaign machine, and yet he’s being beaten by Rick Santorum who has a clipboard and whistle, and by Newt Gingrich who has a podium.
What’s the message here? A supermajority of the Republican party — about 65 percent at this moment — either don’t want Mitt Romney or are not comfortable with him as their nominee.
The leaders who make up the conservative movement across the nation consistently tell me the same thing: Mitt talks a conservative game, but he has yet to walk it.
The truth is that his policy advisers and campaign staff are filled with moderates who are out of step with the base of the Republican Party.
Pooor Mittens is getting jammed. See you Myth at the August Convention when you lose it all.
HOw many delegates did Romney get in Virginia?
There was only him and Ron Paul on the ballot & the statewide Virginia turnout was only about 5%......The lowest ever known there.
Seems to me, he better not be crowing too loud about winning Virginia!!!!
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads “””
I think he has surpassed the $60 million mark. He supposedly spent $25 million in Florida alone——and got 50 delegates. That is about 1 HALF MILLION per delegate.
IF the $25 million Florida number is correct, I think he is well above $60 million by now.