[Pharmboy]

I respectfully disagree...I believe that Obama will get about 55% support from Jews this time around. Still way too much, but no way will he get more. This is based on two things: 1) The number of Jewish friends and relatives who say they will not support him this time around and 2) the polls.

And, of course, this will not matter in NY or CA (since, as you say those stated will go barama anyway), but could be VERY important in FL, PA, OH and MI.

[zeestephen]

If Obama gets 55% of the American Jewish vote, his defeat is certain.

I don't think that's realistic.

To my eye, the best national “poll” for the last two presidential elections has been InTrade.com, where real gamblers bet their own real money on the outcome.

Obama’s reelection odds have been above 50% for four months, and near 60% for the last month.

Last March I predicted right here on Free Republic that Obama would be easily reelected.

Five reasons.....

(1) The economy would stabilize and slowly improve.

(2) The MSM would highlight every positive economic story and ignore or camouflage every negative story.

(3) A small majority of American voters now favor the European Socialist economic model.

(4) Conservatives have had no national leadership since Newt Gingrich imploded in 1998.

(5) After 50 years of relentless attacks from the Hard Left MSM, the Republican Party and its presidential candidates still have no national strategy to counter it.