Replies

If Obama gets 55% of the American Jewish vote, his defeat is certain.

I don't think that's realistic.

To my eye, the best national “poll” for the last two presidential elections has been InTrade.com, where real gamblers bet their own real money on the outcome.

Obama’s reelection odds have been above 50% for four months, and near 60% for the last month.

Last March I predicted right here on Free Republic that Obama would be easily reelected.

Five reasons.....

(1) The economy would stabilize and slowly improve.

(2) The MSM would highlight every positive economic story and ignore or camouflage every negative story.

(3) A small majority of American voters now favor the European Socialist economic model.

(4) Conservatives have had no national leadership since Newt Gingrich imploded in 1998.

(5) After 50 years of relentless attacks from the Hard Left MSM, the Republican Party and its presidential candidates still have no national strategy to counter it.

Unfortunately, your reasons are on the money, but there are also good reasons for him NOT to be reelected (the economy will not really recover; people will see through the MSM smokescreen; even independents do not believe that gummint is the solution to everything; once Romney [or whomever] is the nominee, there will be a clear, cogent anti-barama message that we will all get behind).

You still may be right, though. I sure hope not.