Posted on 03/08/2012 7:54:01 AM PST by pgkdan
A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorum’s first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.
The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.
Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.
The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.
The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.
Gingrich, with 105 delegates, canceled campaign plans in Kansas this week to focus on voters in Alabama and Mississippi, which share a primary election day Tuesday.
But the poll results indicate that support for Gingrich is waning in Alabama, according to ASU political science professor Thomas Vocino.
“The numbers are just not in his favor, and the trend is working against him,” Vocino said. “I can’t foresee a situation where he can rebound and win in Alabama.”
Vocino said Gingrich’s support has fallen steeply since ASU began tracking the race five weeks ago. Gingrich led the field in Alabama with 26.9 percent in the initial round of polling on Feb. 2. His support slipped to 18.9 percent by Feb. 23, when results showed him with a slim lead over Santorum at 18.3 percent.
Santorum’s steady increase over the same time period came almost completely at Gingrich’s expense, Vocino said. Romney, by comparison, has held flat at around 16-18 percent, according to Vocino.
The results indicate that Gingrich is unlikely to reach the 20 percent threshold that would allow him to win delegates in any of the state’s seven congressional districts.
“I think it is very problematic for Gingrich to get any” delegates, Vocino said
“The House of Delegates’ districting system divides the state into 58 districts that elect a varying number of members. The majority of districts, 35, are single-member districts. 23 districts are multi-member constituencies, varying from two to seven (the 30th District in Kanawha County) delegates. Some have claimed that districts are gerrymandered in such a way as to preserve the status quo. Republicans have called for 100 single-member districts, with the districts representing compact areas of common interests.”
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/West_Virginia_State_Legislature
I know very little about the details of how West Virginia's system works in practice. Perhaps someone with knowledge of that state can comment.
Only for the neocon interventionists. Santorum's Iranian war drum banging is madness, a sure loser at the fall ballot box.
Newt's unafraid to engage in intellectual debate, he's willing to go beyond orthodoxy, to challenge assumptions, to investigate. On foreign policy, he's more circumspect in the model of Reagan. Santorum represents reckless hawkishness.
Santorum's not a curious person and he's dishonest about his own past positions having run on individual healthcare mandates in 1992 and 1994 both according to historical press accounts.
Fair enough. Thanks Manc.
The sample in this poll is way too small to be taken seriously.
Four years ago today, McCain was ahead by a whooping 30 points, but Romney is only ahead by around 10.
Getting rid of Romney is doable, but time is short.
>> The people in some states don’t take a real hankerin to folks from outside the area <<
You mean like Pennsylvania-born Newt, Pennsylvania-born Rick, or Pennsylvania-born Ron? Or were you referring to Michigan-born Mitt? All are outsiders, all are carpetbaggers. So what’s to choose?
Wonderful!
If Romney has any sense, and if his campaign managers have any strategy, they will choose Rick as the Vice-Presidential candidate.
Romney will get the business people; the Mormons; good, decent women; the family values crowd; and the moderates and Utah.
Rick will get the South, more family values crowd, more decent good women, the Catholics, the conservatives, the Evangelicals, and Pennsylvania.
It’s a win—win—win—for Romney, Rick, and the GOP.
But most especially for the American people, because Obama will go down to ignominious defeat in November!
ok, let’s all vote for Newt and be done with it. Good plan Ms. Sun. Not voting for Romeny, NO WAY.
Mittbot, Romney is an anti-freedom (Romneycare) socialist, anti-gun, pro-abort piece of human debris.
The GOP can GTH as far as I’m concerned, they’ve sold the American people out for whatever crumbs the RATs will let them have.
That’s a fair question. I believe my emphasis was concerning the idea that Mitt has tons of cash to exert influence, and the other folks were trying to win over people in a lot less (purchase the win) manor.
If a guy wants to come down there, meet with folks, and present his views fine. I think they’ll listen. If he purchases tons of media spots and trashes the others, I think the natives would get real restless.
Not a Mitt-bot. Just a pragmatist. After all, we conservative Republicans do want to win in November.
ALL my campaign cash has gone to Santorum.
I’m thinking of writing a polite letter to Newt, and ask him to support Rick, because Rick is 13.3 points ahead of Newt in the National polls.
btw, Mr. Sun asked me, who’s winning the discussion, and I said me. :)
Don’t waste your time writing such a letter to Newt. He is
the ultimate egotist, and cares only about what is good for Newt. (see: two previous wives ditched because they became ill.)
You’re promoting Romney, that makes you mittbot.
I’m a conservative before I’m a Republican.
The Republican party is dead to me.
And you, dear sir, are an ex-Mormon and hater of all things and persons Mormon.
That makes you a hater, and I will not respond any further to haters of any stripe.
What do you expect Mr. Sun to say. Geez. Let me ask my spouse. Well, you will never believe it but....lol. Go ahead write the letter, he will get a kick out of it. Jr. Senator who lost by 17 points in his home states asks former Speaker of the House to step aside because he is 13 points ahead in the national polls at this point. Well, if that be the case, Rick would have left the reace a very long time ago. Like when he was down 18 points, or wait that was 28 points in the national polls. LOL. You are a trip.
BTW, Sun, you are winning.
Keep up the good work.
Who has the mittbot watch (aka ZOT) list?
I think we have a live one here.
My, my, so judgemental.
I’m a “hater”? LOL! Pathetic dodge. You know absolutely NOTHING about me and pretend to be so much better than me. LOL! What a laugh a minute from a rookie such as you.
You are a promoter of liberal scum, get ready, a world of hurt is coming.
Something smells here...kinda like ozone.
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