Posted on 03/07/2012 10:32:50 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Republican Hard and Soft Count Delegate Summary
Total Delegates: 2,286 (1144 needed to win) 2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically
This is a good chart to study to get a feel for the delegate "count" jungle.
And think about this when you hear a candidate or their PAC "demand" another candidate withdraw. (Newt and Rick are very close in the count -- actually Newt looks potentially stronger).
The candidates know these numbers and they play the MSM and the MSM plays us.
Stay informed.
“Mitt only needs about 75 more delegates and he’s half way to the nomination.”
Please recheck your math Mittens is just over 400 delegates half of 1144 is 572.
There is also part of the Problem, Mittens has 80 Delegates that at least half belong to Newt and Santorum. Now whether the Convention adjust to the correct formula remains to be seen.
So it is between 170-220 for Mittens to reach half way point. And there is a ton of delegate states coming up that does not favor Mittens.
You folks can comfort yourselves with these sorts of things as long as you want to. The hard reality is that Rick has entered more contests, and has won more of them.
For your hard delegate idea to work, Newt has to start winning big. He isn’t even projected to start winning little.
If you think it is reasoned to give a guy credit for not entering races, then give him big mounds of praise because he won his old home state, then run with it all you like.
Except for Newt’s die-hard supporters, nobody is giving Newt props for his big one out of ten state win yesterday.
He cannot win this. He’s not winning states. Other people are.
I appreciate what you are trying to say, but I don’t believe in casting a lot of people’s choices to the wind. These contests are all a part of the selection process, and they should be honored as such.
If Newt wins the nomination, you two can come back and remind me you told me so. As of now, unless Newt backs out, Romney is the nominee.
That’s my call. We know what yours is. We’ll see.
I think Rick would be a total failure as president and that’s the best case scenario. I too will vote for Mitt if Newt drops out. I concede that Rick is more conservative than Mitt, but that does not mean he would make a better president. And even Mitt would not nominate another Sotomayor or Kagan to the court, so the choice between Obama and anyone else is a foregone conclusion.
Since many in the Santorum camp would never support Newt, after the derogatory nature of their treatment by his supporters, Santorum dropping out will not help Newt either. What I suspect is about to happen, and I believe I am seeing begin in the polls, is for the support to wither away from two of the four. That appears to be the two polling the smallest numbers. It will take time to tell.
I suppose it comes down to this: during Santorum’s plummet in the polls, why did Gingrich only gain a single point? The camps are so divided that many would rather see Romney than the other.
“Since many in the Santorum camp would never support Newt, after the derogatory nature of their treatment by his supporters”
You have it completely backwards, not to mention you just destroyed the effectiveness of the “we would have supported Newt” mantra.
Go Newt!
The popular vote of Rick + Newt now equals 3,784,760 compared to Romney’s 3,194,834. I would assume Ron Paul’s 900,099 would split evenly between conservatives and liberals. So even though us conservatives are the majority of voters, the elites want us to “come around” to Romney. Yeah, right.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html
Below shows how the rest of the states give Romney a much less favorable map than he’s had so far. The states are ranked according to Gallup polling from most conservative to least. Almost half the remaining delegates come from the conservative states. Romney only won two of those so far, both caucuses, but only Missouri and Kansas remain of those that are caucuses. He will win Utah, but I don’t know about any others. North Carolina and Pennsylvania from the moderate states should be competitive for Santorum/Gingrich. So there are about 757 delegates to go from states that I think should favor them (although I’m not clear which of the conservative states are Romney-favorable Mormonland).
Romney’s got a good shot at the remaining 659 delegates from other moderate and liberal states and Utah, but even if he got all of them, those alone wouldn’t get him a majority of delegates. So it all comes down to the margin of victory and delegate allocation rules. It doesn’t look like Romney has an easy path to getting a majority of delegates. And there only 3 or 4 caucus states left, which hurts Ron Paul’s ability to get more delegates.
Alabama is WTA, so if Newt takes it, its 50 WTA delegates cancel out Romney’s from Florida. Romney’s next biggest delegate win was Virginia which of course cannot be repeated. Massachusetts was the next biggest for him although WTA Utah will beat that with 40. He’ll also pocket about 86 in DE, NJ and D.C. which are all WTA so that’s a strong spot for Romney. I’d like to see an analysis of who is likely to win these remaining states.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/Mississippi-Conservative-State-Liberal.aspx
TOTAL DELEGATES BY STATE (1144 needed to win):
CON 909 (670 to go)
MOD 661 (278 to go)
LIB 605 (468 to go)
??? 32
CON Mississippi (primary) - 40
CON Utah (primary) - 40 (WTA)
*VOTED* CON Wyoming (caucus) - 29 [ROMNEY]
CON Alabama (primary) - 50 (WTA)
CON Louisiana (primary) - 46
CON Arkansas (primary) - 36
*VOTED* CON Oklahoma (primary) - 43 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
CON Nebraska (primary) - 35
*VOTED* CON Idaho (caucus) - 32 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* CON Tennessee (primary) - 58 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* CON South Carolina (primary) – 25 [GINGRICH]
*VOTED* CON North Dakota (caucus) - 28 [SANTORUM]
CON South Dakota (primary) - 28
CON Kansas (caucus) - 40
CON Texas (primary) - 155
*VOTED* CON Georgia (primary) - 76 [GINGRICH]
CON Indiana (primary) - 46
CON West Virginia (primary) - 31
CON Montana (primary) - 26
CON Missouri (caucus) – 52
CON Kentucky (primary) - 45
MOD North Carolina (primary) - 55
*VOTED* MOD Ohio (primary) - 66 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Virginia (primary) - 49 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Arizona (primary) - 29 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Florida (primary) - 50 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Iowa (caucus) – 28 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Michigan (primary) - 30 [ROMNEY]
MOD New Mexico (primary) - 23
MOD Pennsylvania (primary) - 72
MOD Wisconsin (primary) - 42
*VOTED* MOD Colorado (caucus) - 36 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Minnesota (caucus) - 40 [SANTORUM]
MOD Delaware (primary) - 17 (WTA)
*VOTED* MOD Nevada (caucus) - 28 [ROMNEY]
MOD Illinois (primary) - 69
*VOTED* MOD Alaska (caucus) - 27 [ROMNEY]
LIB Maryland (primary) - 37
*VOTED* LIB Maine (caucus) - 24 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* LIB Vermont (primary) - 17 [ROMNEY]
LIB Connecticut (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB New Hampshire (primary) – 12 [ROMNEY]
LIB Rhode Island (primary) - 19
LIB New Jersey (primary) - 50 (WTA)
LIB California (primary) - 172
LIB Hawaii (caucus) - 20
LIB New York (primary) - 95
*VOTED* LIB Washington (caucus) - 43 [ROMNEY]
LIB Oregon (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB Massachusetts (primary) - 41 [ROMNEY]
LIB District of Columbia (primary) - 19 (WTA)
??? U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus) - 9
??? Puerto Rico (primary) - 23
The 50 FL delegates should have been awarded proportional.
Mittens got the majority of Voters but Newt won the Majority of the CDs. Should have been near a 50/50 split.
The 29 AZ delegates should have been awarded proportional.
Santorum should have picked up a portion.
The 01 MI that Should have went to Santorum.
Course the GOP-E gonna do their Damnedest to Hand it to Mittens.
“Father Rick” “Ricky” “Little Ricky” just to name a few. My point is that there are significant numbers in both camps who will not support the other. The solution is no longer getting one to drop out, if it ever was. It would create even more hard feelings. The trouble is, the delegate landscape favors Romney because of proportional votes where he is weakest and winner take all where he is strongest. Short of combining the two into one campaign, I am not yet seeing a good answer. Do you?
Newt’s got 1,827,245 votes compared to Rick’s 1,957,515. There isn’t much space between them, about a 5% difference.
The only poll I can find on Alabama shows Mr. Gingrich in third. Granted, the poll source is questionable, but it might not be wise to count on that boost.
Got to give Mitt credit for at least one thing. He showed what winning your home state SHOULD look like with his 72% win in MA. I guess that means MA, not MI, is really his home state, the state that best reflects for what he stands. Although he may not want to admit it outside of Red Sox nation. By comparison Newt’s 47% plurality in GA. ‘Southerners’ couldn’t garner a majority in the deep South?! Nope, not unless you counted Paul as one and add in his votes.
“Father Rick” “Ricky” “Little Ricky” just to name a few.
I have never referred to Rick that way, but have been told that I “hate Rick”, “want Romney to win, and am “being paid by the Romney camp” by Santorum supporters. There have also been implications that I am immoral, and not Christian enough.
The situation is dire. I largely agree with your strategy. Both should try to deny Romney delegates where they can in proportional contests. However, I have a problem regarding the winner take all states. Rick could have thrown his support behind Newt in Florida. Instead he echoed Romney’s lies about Newt in the media, and many of his supporters (at least many the here) refused to back Newt because he had been divorced and because of baloney “ethics charges”. The problem with strategic voting is that it has never been reciprocal. Romney could have been dealt a death blow early on if Santorum and his supporters backed Newt in Florida.
So don't add apples ('votes' in states with primaries) with oranges ('votes' in states with caucuses) and claim that their total means anything. Remember that those who stayed home on primary or caucus day also 'voted,' but weren't counted. They passively voted to accept the choices of their neighbors and if there aren't a lot of similar 'passive votes' cast in November history says we're in trouble. So long as we're free country you retain the right to proclaim apples or oranges are superior and others retain the right to disagree. But you dang well better endorse the rights of other states to do things differently than yours, within fairly broad parameters, or we'll lose this Republic.
“The camps are so divided that many would rather see Romney than the other.”
I think that is an accurate analysis.
The only way, at this point, that I can see either Gingrich or Santorum beating Romney for the nomination, is for them to make a deal where one of the two drops out and is then announced as the VP choice for the other.
And that seems unlikely, as neither wants to be number two all that much. But it could happen if they both come to the same conclusion that it’s their only chance, and if they can find a mutually agreeable way to settle who would be the top of that ticket.
Yes I agree with your take on that. The GOPe isn’t worth the powder to blow them to hell.
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