EXIT POLLS: Michigan (STRONG Newt-mentum detected!)

EXIT POLLS: Michigan ^ | 2/28/2012 | CNN Politics

[JediJones]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi?hpt=hp_t1

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az

[C. Edmund Wright]

That’s true. Newt’s calculation, and we’ll see in next week whether it works or not, is that he would build momentum going into good states for him while Santorum would lose momentum - going into good states for Newt - and Newt would pass him as the alternative to Mitt again for Super Tuesday.

Newt had a hunch Santorum was sinking late in Michigan and that’s what he meant when he said the “race would clarify” after Michigan.

Now, will that theory work well enough? I don’t know. But it certainly looks like Santorum’s momentum is downward at this point and with Newt’s focus on energy, his should be upward.

[dforest]

There were no attacks in that post. The proof is in the pudding.

The final tally is what it is.

6.5 is close to what was projected for Newt from the start in Michigan.

Wheres the beef? Better yet, where’s the surge?

Newt had a great debate before these primaries, but it didn’t change much.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

[true until wittle wicky explicitly invited Democrats into the Republican primary]

Reaching across the isle.........Where have we heard that before? But what is most concerning is, the fact that Sanpander went out of his way to point out to those Dems, at how bad it was for Romney to “NOT SUPPORT THE AUTO BAILOUTS!

I am no Romney supporter, but is Santorum really that stupid to claim to be a CONservative you need to support bankrupting your country?

You can bet the “Tricky Ricky” supporters (worshipers) will tell the rest of us, that he was taken out of context, that he really didn't say that, or do that, that it was all meant to beat Romney and was the smartest, the best, the only thing to do. But more importantly, what he really said was; “Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah..........(enter excuses here)

[Cboldt]

I think Romney is about to hit a brick wall. The “vote for me because I’m winning” and “vote for me because I’m inevitable” arguments are pathetic in general; but even more so given his performance in the polls up to this point.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Laugh all you want, the joke is on you.

Your hero really stepped in it this time. It was quite revealing, when Sanpander made those desperate calls to Democrats, letting them know how bad Romney's failure to supprort the Auto bailouts was.

You will never spin this one away, so don't even try. I'm sure you will try, but this clearly shows that your hero will stop at nothing to win. He is desperate and is starting to do some very stupid things that there are no excuses for.

There is no way Santorum can be trusted to hold the most powerful office in the World. If he will cut our throats like this, then he can not be trusted. His Liberal leanings as Senator prove that. We all need to get back behind Newt now, and it is clear, that your kind never should have abandoned him in the first place.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

You may be right. Especially after Santorum revealed his true nature by the way he pandered for their votes. True Conservatives don't do that. And it shows Sanpander will say and do anything to win.

So much for those “unmovable principles”. The truth of what he is, is clear for all to see. He is a Big Government, Big spending, Big Labor, Union loving Chameleon and cannot be trusted.

[true believer forever]

Tricky Rick is becoming quite a flip-flopper in his own right, he seems to say whatever the moment requires to achieve his ends... and he steals all Newt’s ideas on top of that...

Santorum, on voter call, January 29th:

“We want the activists of the party, the people who make up the backbone of the Republican Party to have a say in who our nominee is as opposed to a bunch of people who don’t even identify themselves as Republicans picking our nominee,” Santorum told voters on the call held January 29. “I don’t like that. I believe that states should only allow Republicans to vote in Republican primaries.”

In stark contrast to his campaign’s more recent courtship of Democrats, in January Santorum told Democrats that if they wanted to vote for a Republican, they should switch their party affiliation.
“It’s the Republican nomination, not the independent nomination or the Democratic nomination,” he said on the call. “If you’re a Democrat and you want to be a Democrat, then vote in the Democratic primary, not the Republican. If you want to vote in the Republican Party then become one.”

At the time, Santorum’s main criticism was of Romney’s success in the New Hampshire primary, where 53% of Republican primary participants did not identify themselves as Republicans. In the weeks following Romney’s win in the Granite State, Santorum repeatedly cited that statistic in arguing that his rival’s supporters was out of step with the mainstream GOP electorate. Now Santorum is hoping non-Republicans will help give him the edge in Romney’s home state.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/28/santorum-flips-on-dems-voting-in-gop-primaries/

[JediJones]

The point is that in both of these states, Newt did 2-3 times better with people who decided on the last day of the vote than he did with people who decided or voted early in the weeks/month prior. Like one of you said, if Newt got 6.5% overall in MI, but on the last day he got 11%, that means his popularity is on the way up. The newer votes favored him more than the early votes.

That is despite Newt not doing any special campaigning, advertising or push this weekend in AZ/MI.

That is a sign that Newt’s overall message to the country has been starting to resonate these last couple days. It means there’s a chance his message will work for him when he takes it to Super Tuesday states this week. It also may be a sign people are souring on Rick and Mitt, which is also good for Newt. Rick’s numbers definitely collapsed like a rock on the last day in MI, and it appears Mitt’s may have dropped in AZ, which I would guess is because whenever Mitt isn’t hammering the voters in one state hard with millions of dollars in ads and constant campaigning, the voters just naturally lose interest in him. He has no depth to his ideas or policies and makes no emotional connection so his messages evaporate in voters’ minds very quickly.

I don’t hate Rick, he’s about 50% of the candidate I want where while Mitt is 0% and Newt is 100%. But Rick is clearly not ready for prime-time. I would fully support him as a V.P. understudy under Newt who could learn how to speak to a national audience from the master for the next 8 years.

[JediJones]

I don’t object to a candidate going after Democrat votes, but it should be from a conservative position. We should be trying to convince them that liberal policies don’t work and that they should at least give us a chance since Obama has failed. I agree with Newt that you don’t write off California or the black vote, that you at least talk to these audiences and convince as many as you can.

[Pride in the USA]

This does give us some hope. Maybe Newt is getting a second look by the voters. He is the one candidate who can and will do all he can to save America. His point by point plan to do just that is brilliant. Go Newt!

[Gator113]

** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”

[Darren McCarty]

That did not happen in Michigan.

In the otherwise 50/50 counties, Santorum lost absentee voters 2-1. That was where this election was decided. Romney won Macomb County by 200 on election day. He won the absentees by over 7000 votes.

Santorum's support didn't "collapse" on election day. He probably WON on election day. He did not have 55% to begin win in early February because the absentee vote destroyed him.

Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum because he did best with seniors and had a good absentee program going while Santorum just got started campaigning in Michigan. It wasn't total loss because Santorum got 14 out of the 16 delegates.

[Darren McCarty]

14 delegates to Romney’s 16.

[JediJones]

You’re wrong, Santorum’s support did collapse on the last day. You are right that Romney had a lead from the very earliest deciders but that switched to Santorum in February. You need to look at the exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi?hpt=hp_t1

Scroll down to the “Vote by Time of Decision” section.

Romney’s lead in absentees was probably from people who decided in 2011. A whopping 32% of them did and Romney won them 53% to 16%.

Romney just barely won people who decided in January.

Santorum won big from everybody who decided in February up until the last day. He was in the 50s, Romney in the low 30s. Santorum began losing steam in the last few days though.

Then suddenly Santorum collapsed on the last day. His support went from 50% to 31%, putting him way under even his January average of 41%. The votes that left him split evenly among Newt, Mitt and “Uncommitted,” whatever that means in an exit poll.

I do believe exit polls do incorporate polls from people who voted absentee.

[Darren McCarty]

I don't buy the exit polling in a winter election. The reason is snowbirds. They aren't home. If you've been to the Florida Gulf Coast, you'll see a lot of Michiganders. A lot of snowbirds keep their homesteads here (often in Northern lower Michigan) because of property tax caps. Non homesteads get taxed at a much higher rate than homesteads. My neighbors pay more for their small cottage up north than they do for their 4br house. With "prop a" the assessments are capped and the tax rate is limited its millage rate. The rate is often doubled on 2nd homes.

As for the collapse, people who made their mind up on the last day are likely not sold on anyone to begin with. They wern't the '55%' to start with.

I'd have to go through every county's election results to prove it, but I think this was a case of Santorum winning the official election day and losing the real election day that started when those ballots first arrived in the mail down in places like Bradenton, Sarasota, and St Pete.

[esarlls3]

Abortion should be ...
Legal	36%
Illegal	59%

Is this a Republican primary or a general election?

Will You Vote for GOP Nominee in November
Definitely	62%
Probably	19%
Only if My Candidate Wins	12%

Maybe that explains it.

[FreedomGuru]

“I support Newt”

Madame President Newt Gingrich???? WTH?????