A Brokered Convention Could Be Dangerous for GOP

Real Clear Politics ^ | February 17, 2012 | Sean Trende

[neverdem]

For the past two weeks, I've commented on the increased possibility of a brokered Republican convention. This is a scenario where no candidate manages to claim a majority of the delegates, and the convention deadlocks.

At that point anything can happen. Candidates can combine forces, urging their delegates to support another candidate (usually in exchange for a vice presidential nod or cabinet appointment). Or the convention can turn to an outside candidate in an attempt to break the deadlock.

The latter possibility has caused some excitement among GOP’ers dissatisfied with the current field. After all, a brokered convention could end up drafting one of their favored candidates, such as Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie. The idea is that this person could then unite the party in a way that none of the four current contenders has been able to.

This is certainly the upside of such a scenario. And one argument in particular supports it: The remaining field of candidates is clearly very weak. While it isn’t the weakest in my lifetime, it gives the 1996 Republican contenders and the 2004 Democratic group a run for their money.

So if you look at the 2012 field and conclude that none of them can defeat President Obama, then a brokered convention probably makes sense for Republicans. In other words, if you believe the GOP couldn’t do any worse than Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich, then there’s little to be lost with a brokered convention.

I wouldn’t personally endorse that view, as I continue to believe that this election is about Obama, and that his re-election chances are quite weak regardless of his opponent. Reasonable minds can certainly disagree, but if you conclude that one of the remaining four could win, I think the upside of...

[Pollster1]

A gun fight with a home invader could be dangerous for the family, but that is no reason for your wife and daughters to carry all the family valuables out to the front porch and then strip down for the unwelcome intruder.

A brokered convention could be dangerous for the GOP, but that is no reason for conservatives to settle for a big government leftist like Romney.

I would prefer to see Newt take 51% of the delegates in the primary process. I would settle for Rick Santorum taking 51% of the delegates, and I'm not a big Santorum fan, he's just tolerable. Failing either of those options, my next choice is a brokered convention, and even though my first choice candidate is not running, I can imagine the excitement if they allow her to speak at her second convention. It's quite possible that everyone in the room, except the big government liberals pledged to Romney, would coalesce around her.

[DH]

I suspended my affiliation with the GOP after Regan left office and saw the GOP turning into Political Correct mush. I now consider myself an ultra conservative independent and give no financial support to anyone or any party that goes against the principles of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights as written.

The Tea Party is a refreshing movement in this country but until it can either take over the entire GOP establishment or form into an organized new party, it will simply float without a rudder in a storm of freedom snatching and self-interested politicians bent on enriching themselves while stripping the meat off the bones of an America that once existed.

[Pravious]

I’m not interest in going through all this just to have another dull talking suit. If I wanted that, I’d support Santorum.

I still think Sarah has the energy, charisma and message to bring everyone on board. I don’t see how scraping up Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush is going to change or help ANYTHING - the fact is, just as the country is split in half between the brain-dead left and the right, our own party is split in half between the RINO “vote safe!” crowd and the fire-breathers who want Newt (and might tolerate Santorum) simply because they’re SO sick of these lying, weasel-y SOB’s who keep getting elected to office year after year after year, doing nothing and changing nothing (so what happened to that flat tax, huh, GWB???).

But I think it’s true - all of these people are such damaged goods now that none of them would make a good candidate. If Romney wins, Newt’s supporters (or Santorum’s) are not simply going to shrug and say: “Aw, gee. Well, we lost. Time to rally around our guy and defeat Obama!” — Sounds good, but I, for one, can’t do it and won’t do it. I’m willing to bet some percent of Romney’s supporters feel the same way.

[Redleg Duke]

Yep, a brokered convention where the GOP Elites lose control of the party to the rank and file.

Pretty risky...for the GOP Elites, Ann Coulter, Karl Rove, et al.

[BRL]

This guy is not serious. He left out the most prominent name - Sarah Palin.

No he didn't, you just didn't read the whole article. The article is very sobering.

[rbg81]

A “brokered” convention is total BS. The candidate who deserves the nomination is one that puts himself out there and does the hard work. The thought that an [untested] “White Knight” can come out of nowhere and have it handed to him on a silver platter is anathema to me.

I always thought Gingrich was unelectable on the national level—nominating him would be worse than McCain (which was a disaster). Romney, who I initially supported, has turned out to be a very weak candidate. The more I watch Santorum, the more I think he is underrated. A lot of people say he would get torn apart in the GE. I’m not so sure anymore.

Whoever we field will have a tough time with Obama. As in 2008, the MSM will go pedal-to-the-metal to support him and the bureaucratic apparatus will do its best to paint the Economy as either recovering or recovered. That and most voters are just plain stupid.

[Rider on the Rain]

The only thing worse than a democrat is a liberal republican.

[Pit1]

Lancey, this is what “go along to get along” has reaped. After 2010 house pickup, all we got was higher debt, Issa threatening, and loss of spirit. The new Pubs just occupy space. Check out this post

http://netrightdaily.com/2012/02/republican-democrat-whats-the-difference/

I so agree with you. Play as hard as possible. Rip on the Rat leaders every chance they get. We would be in a much better position. Holder should be in leg-irons and Obeeee should be getting ready for his impeachment for not upholding the Constitution. To hell with the 4 left. Give me a street fighter. Ted Nug would do.

[jmax]

The GOP is a danger to the GOP. They are the party of S-T-U-P-I-D....

[Mike Darancette]

The GOP candidates have “destroyed” each other over not being true conservatives a claim I daresay that Obama will not be making (unless he intends to run as a far right candidate). As to 1940, name the person who could have beaten FDR.

As the author points out this election is about Obama. Either Obama beats all possible GOP candidates (like FDR in 1940) or none of them (like Carter in 1980).

[Mike Darancette]

Why do we NEVER see any Romney supporters on Free Republic?

They usually post as anti the other guy. I have yet to see a cogent argument posted supporting the notion that Romney is the only person who could beat Obama.

[Mike Darancette]

Why do we NEVER see any Romney supporters on Free Republic?

They usually post as anti the other guy. I have yet to see a cogent argument posted supporting the notion that Romney is the only person who could beat Obama.

[W. W. SMITH]

I, naively, thought that ALL Mormons were honorable, decent, truthful people
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

A Mormon should not lie, cheat or steal.......to or from another Mormon. Non Mormons are fair game!

[E. Pluribus Unum]

It could be dangerous for RINOs.

The worst that could happen from a conservative standpoint is we get the same RINO they have been trying to shove down our throats all along.

And we could wind up with she whose name must not be spoken.

[KansasGirl]

[ This lot of GOP candidates have so destroyed each other during the Primary process, ]

Let’s put the blame where it belongs, with Romney. Romney has ran his campaign with the attitude that if he can’t win, he is going to leave the last person standing unelectable. His seems to enjoy splitting and damaging the party. In fact, his campaign operates much the same as I’s expect a Democrat who was seeking the GOP nomination to act. Scorched earth. He has nothing to lose because he’d rather see Obama re-elected than see a conservative elected.

[KansasGirl]

Yep, Romney supporters are the ones who go around attacking every other candidate and voicing their “concerns.”.

[no dems]

Your Post #55 is exactly right. I will not vote for RINO-Rom. I will go Third Party first and I mean that.

[af_vet_rr]

Why do we NEVER see any Romney supporters on Free Republic?

Because Romney supporters aren't Conservatives and because Conservatives will never support Romney.

We all know that there is very little difference between a liberal with an (R) next to their name and a liberal with a (D) next to their name. Both want to take you down the road to socialism, it's just a matter of how fast.

[PJ-Comix]

A brokered convention could be exhilarating IMHO

It would actually make watching the convention on TV INTERESTING for a change since it won't be a pre-arranged coronation.

[hinckley buzzard]

Yep, a brokered convention where the GOP Elites lose control of the party to the rank and file.

The whole problem is, that scenario cannot and will not ever happen. The elites will run the process and insure that their candidate wins the nom. The rank and file will sit around outside the closed door, and wait to be told who their candidate is. That's why this whole proposition is laughable.