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Numbers Suggest Santorum Could Be Romney's Worst Nightmare
Townhall.com ^ | February 17, 2012 | Scott Rassmussen

Posted on 02/17/2012 5:48:02 AM PST by Kaslin

In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge ahead. While it's impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the GOP race shows that Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that's nothing new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich in the polls.

What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent. None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a toss-up in such a contest.

Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other candidates drop out. Romney adds just 7 to his column. Santorum makes huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race. Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal amounts. For the first time, the numbers show that if one of Romney's challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.

Both Romney and Santorum are well-liked by Republican Primary voters, but Santorum has a slight advantage on this pointm as well. Seventy-five percent offer a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 66 percent say the same of Romney.

There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum, though. Forty percent of Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum. Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.

The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as the strongest general election candidate. For some Republicans, that's enough. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and the best organization.

Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only strongly opposed to President Obama's agenda but that they don't think much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would shake up the good old boys network in Washington rather than join it. To date, Romney's attitude signals that he'd be more comfortable leading the club than challenging it.

Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney's worst nightmare.

The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over. However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far more than the latest flavor of the month.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; freeperheadsexplode; prolifelikebush; prolifesantorum; rassmussen; santorum; santorumbush3; santorumprolife
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To: Kaslin

The funny thing is this would have happened to almost any candidate who would have stayed in the race while Mitt and Newt were killing each other. The only smart move Saint-orum made was not dropping out. Perry, Cain, Pawlenty, etc. could all have been polling as well as Saint-orum right now. Even Bachmann and Huntsman might have been competitive now. Of course Palin would’ve been cleaning up at this point. Saint-orum didn’t do anything to earn his position. Unfortunately this would make him a very weak candidate to run against Obama. Simply being the last man standing as others fall doesn’t prove you have anything going for you.


81 posted on 02/17/2012 1:04:23 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: Preachin'
"It may be true that Newt has had some issues in his personal life, but seems to be repentant. I can deal with that, because I’m not perfect either."

Good point. If the left wants to bring personal matters to the forefront of the general election, Newt need only remind them of Bill Clinton and BJ's in the Oval Office. He could remind them he has apologized for his personal indiscretions where Clinton never did - and was impeached - and lost his law license. Let the libs bring it, but I don't think they'll go there if Newt is the GOP candidate.

The lib focus will be on the whole "hopey changey" thing. The independents will be focused on who looks better and/or who TALKS the better game, as I stated above.

82 posted on 02/17/2012 1:08:07 PM PST by A Navy Vet (An Oath is Forever)
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To: Antoninus

It’s definitely scary going against someone who is just as willing to drive the country into debt to buy votes as Obama is. What’s “conservative” about redistributing wealth to a favored industry like manufacturing again at the expense of all others? Isn’t that the same kind of central planning economics Obama’s been doing with the green energy groups?


83 posted on 02/17/2012 1:09:23 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: WPaCon

So the plan is to move the party to the left on economics in order to be more “electable?” That’s more acceptable than moving to the left on social issues? How about we stick with a candidate who’s RIGHT on every issue...Newt.


84 posted on 02/17/2012 1:13:10 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: presently no screen name

You need help. Quickly.


85 posted on 02/17/2012 1:27:36 PM PST by pgkdan (Rick Santorum 2012. Conservative's last, best chance!)
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To: WPaCon
Should Rick rethink his plan to subsidize manufacturing through a tax holiday?

"If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it." -Ronald Reagan

"Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them." -Ronald Reagan

If I make computer programs, does that count as "manufacturing?" If I'm denied the tax holiday, I guess me and everyone who else who makes stuff can just sue to find out why the products we make don't count as "manufacturing" under Saint-orum's definition.

86 posted on 02/17/2012 1:30:05 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: pgkdan

I’m just fine, thank you! Are you campaigning and using lies and trashing to win, also? Seems he’s rubbing off on his supporters.


87 posted on 02/17/2012 1:31:59 PM PST by presently no screen name
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To: afraidfortherepublic; American Constitutionalist; Antoninus; AuH2ORepublican; BlackElk; ...
Santorum for President Ping List.

FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.

88 posted on 02/17/2012 1:45:57 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: JediJones
That’s more acceptable than moving to the left on social issues?

I'd generally say so.

But Santorum's weakness on fiscal issues is vastly overrated. It's more that the perception of him being moderate on fiscal issues will help him.

89 posted on 02/17/2012 2:15:16 PM PST by WPaCon
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To: JediJones
"....a candidate who’s RIGHT on every issue...Newt."

Now I know you're living in FANTASY ISLAND!

90 posted on 02/17/2012 2:42:39 PM PST by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: RasterMaster

http://www.newt.org/answers#Second

Second Amendment

Newt has been long recognized as a strong defender of the Second Amendment’s right to bear arms. Newt is a recipient of the National Rifle Association’s Defender of the Second Amendment Award. His legislative voting record was consistently scored by the NRA as either an A or A+ all 20 years that he served in Congress. Furthermore, Newt is the only candidate in the GOP race who has spoken out about the threat to the second amendment from the United Nations and other global governance organizations, and on the first day, he will instruct the Department of Justice and State Department to defend American sovereignty and block all international treaties that infringe on Second Amendment rights.

Defending Second Amendment Rights

The right to bear arms is a political right designed to safeguard freedom so that no government can take away from you the rights which God has given you.

– Newt Gingrich, NRA’s Celebration of American Values Leadership Forum

We live in a time when international organizations and our own federal government are devoting significant efforts to eliminate the right of Americans to keep and bear arms. We must forcefully echo the Declaration of Independence and insist that the first duty of government is to provide for our safety. At the core of this is the Constitutional right of the people to provide for their own safety.

THE GINGRICH RECORD DEFENDING SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS:

* Newt has been a committed and vigilant defender of Second Amendment rights since first being elected by the people of Georgia’s Sixth District in 1978.
* Newt is a Life Member of the National Rifle Association, and speaks regularly at the NRA’s Annual Meeting. He received an A or A-plus rating from the NRA all ten terms that he served in the House of Representatives, and received the NRA’s Defender of the Second Amendment award in 2010.

WHAT NEWT WILL DO ON DAY ONE:

* Instruct the Department of Justice and State Department to defend American sovereignty and block all international treaties that infringe on Second Amendment rights.
* Take immediate steps to decisively control the border so Mexican drug cartels are blocked from entering the United States.
* End all illegal gun exports to Mexico by the federal government.
* End the discriminatory treatment of firearms imports. If a gun can be legally made and sold in the United States, it should be importable from outside the United States.

View Newt’s responses to the Gun Owners of America survey here.

http://www.newt.org/sites/newt.org/files/images/GOASurveyPDF.pdf


91 posted on 02/17/2012 3:01:00 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: RasterMaster

http://www.newt.org/answers#GlobalWarming

Global Warming/Cap and Trade

Newt does not believe there is a settled scientific conclusion about whether industrial development has dramatically contributed to a warming of the atmosphere.

Newt absolutely opposes “cap and trade” as well as any system of taxing carbon emissions. He testified before Congress against it in 2009 and led a grassroots effort while the Chairman of American Solutions to block its passage in the House and Senate.

Newt believes that cap and trade would kill hundreds of thousands of American jobs, cause electricity and fuel prices to skyrocket, and make America poorer. In contrast, Gingrich believes the best way to protect the environment is through markets, incentives, and entrepreneurs, who quite often are deploying innovative new technologies.

As for the question of whether industrial development has dramatically contributed to a warming of the atmosphere, Newt has noted there is no settled scientific conclusion. Many scientists believe it is the case. Others do not. But this unsettled scientific question has nothing to do with the best approach to protecting our environment, which is always markets, incentives, and entrepreneurs creating better and more efficient products and services.

Q: So why did Newt do the ad with Nancy Pelosi in 2007 calling for action to address climate change?

Newt does not believe there is a settled scientific conclusion about whether industrial development has dramatically contributed to a warming of the atmosphere.

Through his entire career, Newt has supported pro-market, pro-entrepreneur, innovative solutions to our environmental challenges, which he believes are superior to the liberal pro-bureaucracy, pro-tax, pro-regulation approach to the environment.

Newt believes that conservatives cannot be absent from the conversation about the environment and instead that conservatives must offer and explain why conservative solutions are better. Unfortunately, the attempt to get that message out through the ad with Nancy Pelosi failed. On November 8, 2011, Newt told FOX News’ Bret Baier that doing that commercial with Pelosi was “probably the dumbest single thing I’ve ever done”.

Newt will continue to oppose the Democrats’ destructive cap-and-trade and carbon tax proposals, continue to support expanded domestic oil and gas drilling, and continue to fight for a fundamental replacement of the job-killing Environmental Protection Agency with an Environmental Solutions Agency.


92 posted on 02/17/2012 3:03:14 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: RasterMaster

http://www.newt.org/answers#ProLife

Consistent Pro-Life Record

Newt Gingrich has consistently upheld a pro-life standard. He had a consistent pro-life voting record throughout his twenty years in Congress, including his four years as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Gingrich pledges to uphold this consistent pro-life standard as president.

Gingrich’s consistent pro-life standard is reflected by the following:

1. 98.6% Lifetime Pro-Life Rating from the National Right to Life Committee (NRLC). For the 20 years that Gingrich served in Congress (1979-1999), Gingrich supported the pro-life position in 70 out of 71 votes. (In the one instance that he did not take the NRLC position, it was because the NRLC opposed an early 1995 version of welfare reform because it changed certain welfare payments for mothers with children; NRLC did not oppose the final version of Gingrich’s welfare reform passed in 1996)

2. Supported the Hyde Amendment. Gingrich consistently voted for the Hyde amendment and other bans on government funding of abortions.

3. Partial Birth Abortion Ban. During Gingrich’s tenure as Speaker, the House of Representatives twice passed legislation banning partial birth abortions. President Clinton vetoed this legislation both times. Finally, a partial birth abortion ban was signed into law in 2003. The legislative effort to ban partial birth abortions had a very positive impact increasing pro-life support in the United States.

4. Signed the Susan B. Anthony List Pro-Life Leadership Presidential Pledge. In June 2011, Gingrich signed the SBA List Pro-Life Leadership Presidential pledge in which Gingrich pledges to the American people that if elected President he will (i) only nominate judges to the Supreme Court and federal judiciary who are committed to restraint and applying the original meaning of the Constitution, and not legislating from the bench (ii) select pro-life appointees for relevant executive branch positions, (iii) advance pro-life legislation to permanently end all taxpayer funding of abortion in all domestic and international spending programs, (iv) defund Planned Parenthood; and (v) advance and sign into law a Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act to protect unborn children who are capable of feeling pain from abortion.

5. Pledges to Sign Two Pro-life Executive Orders on the first day of a Gingrich Administration.

i. “Mexico City Policy” of Respect for Life. Reauthorize President Ronald Reagan’s policy – also known as the “Mexico City Policy”— to stop the federal funding of any non-governmental agencies or charities that perform or promote abortions in foreign countries.

ii. Respect the Beliefs and Integrity of Healthcare Workers. No American working in a medical environment should be forced to perform any action or procedure that he or she finds morally or ethically objectionable. This protection should include, but not be limited to, abortion and sterilization procedures. Existing conscience clause protections need to be strengthened.


93 posted on 02/17/2012 3:09:00 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: JediJones
Wow...directly from the campaign, now that's digging DEEP!

Drink up!

94 posted on 02/17/2012 3:10:21 PM PST by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: RasterMaster
Blaming the messenger is always a good logical fallacy to fall back on when you can't win the argument.


95 posted on 02/17/2012 3:20:55 PM PST by JediJones (Just say NO to the MittRick system! Disenfranchise the establishment!)
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To: JediJones

Which is why you have nothing but campaign propaganda to support your thread spamming.


96 posted on 02/17/2012 3:24:59 PM PST by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: xzins
Santorum has a lot of state-wide campaigning in Pennsylvania, so his “baggage” has been inspected, and the liberal PA press even gave a loving, TSA style pat-down.

Oh really?

Descriptions are from the people in his own State that worked directly with Santorum in the Republican Party who know Santorum best politically and professionally:

“extreme”,... “big government”,... “pork barrel spender”,... “hair trigger volatility”,... “cruel”,... “extremely arrogant”, ...“dismissive”,... “massive ego”,.... lack of character,... poor temperament, ...“unfit”, ...“He treats people really badly with arrogance and contempt”, ...multiple personas,.. vindictive,... nasty,... “a disaster”,... “abrasive”, ...“absurd”,... “phony”,... “rigid”,... “divisive”,.... “a sure victory for Obama”.

Santorum will have no learning curve...he has had leadership experience with one of the world’s major legislative bodies.

Santorum’s record has been recounted here on numerous occasions that ..."Rick Santorum has never been a leader when it came to bucking the party leadership on anything, most especially including spending.".... On every major spending issue Medicare Part D, earmarks, etc. he's been compliant......In light of this, I am at a loss as to how he has suddenly become the choice of so many who loudly proclaim that only a crusader on spending issues will do.

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2012/02/13/the-main-problem-with-santorum/

No one knows what Obama’s baggage is

Obama carries the most damaging 'baggage' of all -- the economy.

97 posted on 02/17/2012 3:58:55 PM PST by caww
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To: presently no screen name

You are a despicable creature.


98 posted on 02/17/2012 4:31:49 PM PST by pgkdan (Rick Santorum 2012. Conservative's last, best chance!)
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To: WPaCon
You should care. 'Cause you can't win without the South. The South will not come out to vote for Romney, and Republicans would lose in the general. Pennsylvania is North in my book, but I like Santorum (though not as much as Newt) as I think many Southerners may.
99 posted on 02/17/2012 5:49:28 PM PST by 22cal (Forgiven, not perfected)
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To: 22cal

I trust that the South will vote against Obama no matter who the candidate is (even Romney, although I have not looked into the matter deeply,) so Gingrich playing well there isn’t an advantage of his. Santorum (if the theory holds up) is the only one that would win states that the other two wouldn’t.


100 posted on 02/17/2012 6:14:38 PM PST by WPaCon
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