What supply do you think is falling?
Our domestic production of oil is climbing, we are refining more petroleum than we use, making us a net exporter of products. We still import too much oil, but the global supply is climbing, not falling.
There is a short term risk of an interruption of supply creating a spike in prices while refineries around the world try to top off their stocks prior to that happening, if they believe it likely.
But the global demand is growing and that is the biggest impact on the world oil price trends.