IMHO, I would say around 5 years. Even shorter, if Iran develops a nuclear weapon.
I agree.
LLS
I agree, a goo probability that within 5 - 7 years a nuke will be lit somewhere. Then we all need to pretend as if we're surprised and shocked, as if none of this was predictable and of course the witch hunt needs to ensue, after the real culprits (policy makers that are avoiding the issues and their consequences) will be long gone. It's no different with government deficit spending etc. We look and worry about there here and now not the consequences later.
Pakistan-India
Iran-Israel
North Korea-South Korea/Japan/USA
Soon, Japan (not really worried about them) will join the ranks, likewise because of Iran other Middle East nations will begin pursuit of such systems, Saudi Arabia being the obvious one having the money and infrastructure to support such a program...
BUT! The US is reducing her nuclear arms stockpiles, cutting on defense, missile defense and Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. “It's all good,” and Der Spiegel thinks we're on the right track, so everything has to be OK.