Posted on 02/05/2012 12:55:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Instead, if Mr. Romney loses the nomination, it is likely to be because of the one region that has yet to give him a victory: the Midwest.
A contiguous block of eight swing states containing 95 electoral votes — Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — determine the winners and losers in most presidential elections. When at least six or seven of these states are added to the state bases of the Democratic or Republican candidate, he or she is all but guaranteed a victory. (Barack Obama won seven of them in 2008). Only when they are about evenly divided, as in 2000 or 2004, do swing states in other parts of the country — like Nevada or New Hampshire or Florida — tend to make much difference.
Mr. Romney lost Iowa to Rick Santorum, albeit by about the narrowest possible margin. He will have two more opportunities to win a Midwestern state on Tuesday, when Minnesota has its caucuses and Missouri holds a primary. (The Missouri primary does not matter for delegate selection: the state will hold a separate caucus for that purpose in March.)
Mr. Romney could be vulnerable in both states. A survey released on Sunday by Public Policy Polling, which has had fairly accurate results so far in the primary season, had Minnesota as a toss-up between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul not far behind.
And in Missouri, where Mr. Gingrich is not on the ballot for the “beauty contest” primary, it had Mr. Santorum ahead of Mr. Romney, 45 percent to 34 percent.
Imagine that Mr. Romney were to lose both states. That would make him zero for three in the nation’s most important swing region. It would raise questions about his performance in Ohio,
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
There is still time to stop Romney. One candidate alone isn’t likely to be enough, but perhaps Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul combined can get enough delegates to prevent Romney from winning a majority of delegates at the convention.
Romney’s support base in Michigan is going the way of the dinosaurs and his claim to fame as a Michigan native is wearing pretty thin after living elsewhere for a few decades.
Like JimR says, resist it. We can win with Newt if the country is angry enough to want a real change. People must get out of their comfort zones and not to be allowed this spoon feeding of the lies.
Up here (not sure about your part of the state), there have been a lot of good radio ads against Mitt, perhaps they will be effective by the time the primary hits us.
Yeah, I can see Illinois, Ohio, Indiana etc going for Moonman Newt.
Not counting Floriduh!...has Romney won a “real” southern state yet?
I don’t see Mitt doing well in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee or Texas.
That's our best bet. If any of you know someone in the Santorum campaign, put a bug in their ear. They need to stop Romney now or there won't be any contest.
While Santorum does not impress me as a limited government conservative, he is more acceptable than Newt.
As best I can tell, he's only really strongly conservative about “right to life” issues; although I am willing to listen if his supporters can give me a different “take” on his stand on issues.
The NYT wants Santorum in this thing to divide up the votes.
Many Santorum supporters dislike Gingrich as much as they dislike Romney. Santorum’s exit would not automatically help Gingrich.
I am having a hard time convincing my wife and my mom to vote for Newt if he gets the nomination. Why is he so unliked by women?
“Why is he so unliked by women?”
His abrasive manner combined with his marital history.
Mitt is not liked at all here.Newt and Santorum bot have a very good chance of taking Ohio though I think Newt has a better chance.
“Imagine, moreover, that Mr. Santorum wins both Minnesota and Missouri. That could revive his campaign, especially given that he also took Iowa.
Mr. Santorum is, in many ways, a more dangerous opponent for Mr. Romney than Mr. Gingrich at this point. He has run a more disciplined campaign than the former House speaker, has less personal baggage and is less disliked by party leaders.
Mr. Santorum can also make a credible claim to challenging Mr. Romney on electability. Mr. Santorum’s current unfavorable rating among all voters is 11 points lower than Mr. Romney’s, 36 percent versus 47 percent. Their favorable ratings are roughly equal: 30 percent for Mr. Santorum to 29 percent for Mr. Romney.”
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