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One Test Left for Romney: The Midwest (Santorum bigger threat than Gingrich)
New York Times ^ | February 5, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/05/2012 12:55:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Instead, if Mr. Romney loses the nomination, it is likely to be because of the one region that has yet to give him a victory: the Midwest.

A contiguous block of eight swing states containing 95 electoral votes — Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — determine the winners and losers in most presidential elections. When at least six or seven of these states are added to the state bases of the Democratic or Republican candidate, he or she is all but guaranteed a victory. (Barack Obama won seven of them in 2008). Only when they are about evenly divided, as in 2000 or 2004, do swing states in other parts of the country — like Nevada or New Hampshire or Florida — tend to make much difference.

Mr. Romney lost Iowa to Rick Santorum, albeit by about the narrowest possible margin. He will have two more opportunities to win a Midwestern state on Tuesday, when Minnesota has its caucuses and Missouri holds a primary. (The Missouri primary does not matter for delegate selection: the state will hold a separate caucus for that purpose in March.)

Mr. Romney could be vulnerable in both states. A survey released on Sunday by Public Policy Polling, which has had fairly accurate results so far in the primary season, had Minnesota as a toss-up between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul not far behind.

And in Missouri, where Mr. Gingrich is not on the ballot for the “beauty contest” primary, it had Mr. Santorum ahead of Mr. Romney, 45 percent to 34 percent.

Imagine that Mr. Romney were to lose both states. That would make him zero for three in the nation’s most important swing region. It would raise questions about his performance in Ohio,

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: newt; romney; santorum4romney
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To: Clintonfatigued
Espionage novelist Brad Thor just tweeted a link to Santorum's article in the Washington Times:

SANTORUM: Romney’s record of judicial capitulation
Fixing our judiciary too important to settle for excuses

Brad Thor @BradThor 17 min [tweets]
#Romney’s liberal record of judicial capitulation
washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/… #tcot [link above]

21 posted on 02/05/2012 1:30:24 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: Arkady Orinko
"I am having a hard time convincing my wife and my mom to vote for Newt if he gets the nomination. Why is he so unliked by women?"


I am not sure, this is a topic that a lot of woman posters on another site discuss. Part of the problem most likely is the way he treated his previous wives. My problem with Newt is that he is nearly as unreliable as Romney when it comes to limiting government and on top of that he appears to has a questionable personal life. I would support either of them if they get the nomination, but am not going to lift a finger to help either become the nominee.
22 posted on 02/05/2012 1:31:43 PM PST by rob777
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To: Clintonfatigued
"His abrasive manner combined with his marital history."
That and his entering the revolving door from political leader to influence peddler. How on earth he has the nerve to paint himself as a Washington outsider is amazing to me.
23 posted on 02/05/2012 1:37:02 PM PST by rob777
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To: Clintonfatigued

Newton will more than double the Mittiot’s delegate count in the aforementioned States.


24 posted on 02/05/2012 1:38:44 PM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: rob777

I guess you’d have to address that question to the cats in DC…


25 posted on 02/05/2012 1:40:12 PM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: Arkady Orinko

Tell your wife the little known fact that Gingrich’s first wife was his high school teacher preying on a young man. He must be psychologically scarred by this first affair. Give a young man a break! If the church forgives him why can’t people forgive him? He is happily married now.
Hey Romney is from men with many wives; obama is bi, Clinton seduces young women..... We are not looking for a mate. We are looking for a capable, proven leader who can restore our Republic! Gingrich is the man!


26 posted on 02/05/2012 1:43:27 PM PST by chrisnj
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To: loveliberty2; NavyCanDo; BillyBoy

If Rick Santorum wins in Minnesota, it will change the game plan for everybody involved. I think that Santorum could stop Romney if he can get some air time. The most Gingrich can do is delay Romney’s coronation.


27 posted on 02/05/2012 1:44:20 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: Arkady Orinko
“Why is he so unliked by women?”

That's easy; two ex-wives and serial audulterer.

We have the same situation in my house. My wife views Newt as a “moral leper.” My daughter - a college Republican - says: Anyone who thinks a fat old guy who has been married three times, left congress under a cloud and has more baggage than O’Hare can be elected President is nuts. She's probably right.

28 posted on 02/05/2012 1:46:58 PM PST by bwc2221
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To: Clintonfatigued

The favorable rating for Santorum is because he was given a pass - no one attacks him because he is not perceived to be a threat. Plus I can’t help but feel that he was using his young daughter to get sympathy.


29 posted on 02/05/2012 1:47:38 PM PST by chrisnj
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To: chrisnj

“Hey Romney is from men with many wives; obama is bi, Clinton seduces young women.....”

how many wives does Mitt have ?


30 posted on 02/05/2012 1:51:00 PM PST by IWONDR
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To: chrisnj
” We are looking for a capable, proven leader who can restore our Republic!”

Doesn't Rick Santorum fit that description?

31 posted on 02/05/2012 1:53:33 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: IWONDR

:)


32 posted on 02/05/2012 1:54:56 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: Krankor
Moonman Newt

The fact that Newt has seriously considered giving any validity to the man-caused climate change/global warming premise has made me question his vaunted intelligence, because all one has to do is the math -- if we had detailed global-wide climate records for every single day of the past five million years, or even 20 million years, we still wouldn't have enough data to identify, let alone manipulate, indications of significant climate change on this ancient old earth in the context of the gnat's-breath amount of time fifty or even 1,000 human lifetimes represents. It is ludicrous on its face.

Happily, Newt has demonstrated the extremely rare and valuable quality of being able to own up to his mistakes (as opposed to flip-flopping, such as Romney's habit of saying one thing one day, and something different the next, without acknowledging that he ever held the previous position).

That tells me that it's entirely possible that Newt will figure out the math and be big enough to say, "Oops! Wow, I was wrong!" (and in fact he's already questioned the validity of the "science" behind global warming).

But more than anything else, the one thing Newt did to earn my willingness to overlook his gullibility on the Global Warming hoax, was his statement about colonizing the moon.

The nation that dominates space technology in the coming decades, will also have global military dominance. Of all priorities in the United States, its NUMBER ONE must be superiority in space. It's too bad that folks are so distracted by the romance and entertainment aspects of sci-fi space fantasies that they stupidly poo-poo the VERY REAL national security, technological, and military advantages of being THE world leader in space. IT IS CRUCIAL to our future success.

Now you, Krankor, you had better think long and hard on this one: 20 years from now, when your grandkids or great-grandkids are gazing up at the moon, how will you feel if they're looking at a Moon "owned" by China, or a moon "owned" by Russia? Because that moon, and Mars as well someday, WILL be "owned" by some nation or an alliance of nations, and if that alliance ISN'T American-led, then America will be an inferior, secondary power and our freedoms and liberties -- and those of your grandchildren and great grandchildren -- will be at the mercy of other nations, such as China or Russia.

Newt was SPOT ON with his vision for the moon, and people who laugh it off as "kooky" are as smugly deluded as they are short-sighted.

GODSPEED NEWT GINGRICH.

33 posted on 02/05/2012 1:58:37 PM PST by Finny ("Raise hell. Vote smart." -- Ted Nugent)
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To: bwc2221

It is unfortunate that people only see the outer image -
Obama - is seen as charismatic and capable when his image was only artificially created by the media and the burial of all facts about his life (e.g. his drug problems, his gay affairs, his cold calculating ways disguised by his devilish smiles......)
Gingrich - a brilliant man whole-heartedly devoted to saving America, a proven leader, but people only see his older, not overly appealing physique and label him ‘fat old guy’
I will take an unattractive older wise leader who can save our Republic any day. You can have the devil liar anti-American lawless criminal usurper, or the plastic-smile, talk-out-of-both-sides-of-his-mouth liberal food-stamp romney!
This is from a woman’s mouth!


34 posted on 02/05/2012 2:00:43 PM PST by chrisnj
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To: Clintonfatigued

Gingrich has the proven records.
Where is Santorum’s? He is not as qualified as Gingrich.

Plus only Gingrich is the fighter who can take on obama and the lamestream.
Only Gingrich can articulate his visions, the problems and solutions clearly and precisely.

Only Gingrich can win the argument of where we want to go as a nation.


35 posted on 02/05/2012 2:07:04 PM PST by chrisnj
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To: Christie at the beach

Is winning with Newt really a good thing?


36 posted on 02/05/2012 2:07:38 PM PST by Raider Sam (They're on our left, right, front, and back. They aint gettin away this time!)
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To: Christie at the beach
The NYT wants Santorum in this thing to divide up the votes.

They are trying but it has not happened yet. Not one state that Romney won could the two together would have beat Romney. NH, FL and NV, Romney beat both Newt and Santorum together with both vote totals. Nobody is stealing any body’s votes. Newt won SC without needing Santorum’s votes and Santorum won Iowa without needing Newt's votes. This nonsense of one or the other taking their votes is the biggest Bull crap ever stated.

37 posted on 02/05/2012 2:09:05 PM PST by napscoordinator (Go Santorum! Go Patriots! America's Team)
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To: IWONDR

Mitt is from men with many wives (his grandfathers) . No one says Mitt has many wives.


38 posted on 02/05/2012 2:09:05 PM PST by chrisnj
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To: Clintonfatigued

A brokered convention would be great, but if that happens, I think Mr. Newt will deserve the lion’s share of the credit, and our gratitude. He certainly has endured a lot already, and now the Romney people are out planting the seeds to suggest he is mentally unstable. Although I am still hopeful he can win the nomination and the election, he has done enough for his country if he can stick it out. In the 1990s, we were in the same situation then as we are now, accept not so far gone then, but he stopped it cold and just by sticking this out, he can do it again. I think it is important now, more than ever, to support your non-Romney candidate as much as you can. I also believe after yesterday’s caucus, that the Mormon support for Romney is a mile wide and a fraction of an inch think, the other candidates need to work hard to win as many votes as they can in these Mormon-populated states.


39 posted on 02/05/2012 2:10:36 PM PST by erkelly (Never underestimate the stupidity of the stupid party!)
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To: proudpapa

Well, there have only been two southern votes so far.

But, yeah lets discount Florida and call it stupid because it didnt vote the way we wanted. Not like we need Floridians in the November election, or anything.


40 posted on 02/05/2012 2:10:46 PM PST by Raider Sam (They're on our left, right, front, and back. They aint gettin away this time!)
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