The RCP average is frequently wrong since it includes old polls in it’s average. It cannot reflect late swings as old data holds the average down
There have been two different sets of data...two polls showing 15% leads, and two polls showing 5-7 % point leads. It needs to be determined which polls are older. This particualr poll was 1/28 and 1/29, I believe. How ‘bout the others?
PPP’s second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday’s polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.
Here is your answer on polls.
SurveyUSA - Romney +15 (data through 1/29 ;today)
Rasmussen = Romney +16 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
PPP - Romney +8 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
NBC/Marist - Romney +15 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
Mason Dixon = Romney +11 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
(several others through 1/26, showing Romney +11 or so)
I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.
I usually try to look at the trends and also what the candidates are saying and doing. The fact the Newt said he was staying in this to the end, regardless of what happens in Florida is kind of telling to me.
But hey, this has been a volatile race, with wild swings in short amounts of times. I wouldn’t bet on anything at this point. Personally, I don’t think Romney will win by double digits as most of the recent polls are showing. But unfortunately, I do believe Romney will win in the 5-7 point range.