I heard somewhere in the news someone claim that HALF of all Floridians had already voted through early voting. Is that possible? Anyone know what percentage of votes came through early voting in FL before?
One problem is Mitt has already been advertising, sending mailings and promoting early voting for a week or more, while no other candidates have been doing anything there. I suspect the significance of that was trumped up to add to the meme of Mitt’s “inevitability” but it could be a factor. OTOH, if Floridians watched last week’s debates, they may be shifting to Newt the same way SC did.
I don’t think the early voting will be that big of a deal. I expect Newt to be up big in the next polling out of FL.
Also, Jeb Bush sent a signal tonight by leaving Romney at the altar. Jeb knows FL as well as anyone. He also knows that it won’t be good for him to be seen as backing a loser. If he thought Romney was in good shape and could win I doubt he’d have given him the cold shoulder.
I think his plan is that he lays back, Newt wins, then loses to Obama. Come 2016 the GOP blames the tea party for botching the election and with the paryt desparate to prevent Hillary from replacing Obama, Jeb Bush rides to the rescue as the conservative who can appeal to the base and the establishment just like his brother did. And he won’t have the stain of having endorsed Romney...which has likely ended the future prospects of Christie.
Color me skeptical. That sounds ridiculously high for an early voting percentage. Best keep listening for further news.
One problem is Mitt has already been advertising, sending mailings and promoting early voting for a week or more, while no other candidates have been doing anything there.
And those mailings may not have created the desired effect. Mitt just isn't liked by roughly 75% of the center-right voting public, and that number hasn't budged, no matter what he's done.
Also, like you said, a lot of Florida voters watched the debates, just like we did, and no doubt came away with the same conclusions that South Carolina voters did. Newt simply stomped the competition and the news media this past week. So much so, that he completely upended a planned campaign killing attack by a major news network. That was EPIC!
We'll see how it goes, but right now, it appears that Newt has gained an historic level of momentum going into the Florida primary. I don't want to speak to soon, but it already looks like an unstoppable juggernaut.
We can expect every long knife in the kitchen to be thrown at him, this coming week. Be prepared for it. It's inevitable, but defensible.
Less than 10% have already voted.
Florida early voting started yesterday statewide:
According to the Florida GOP, more than 185,000 Republicans have already cast their votes via absentee ballot. And around 12,000 more Republicans have participated in early voting in the five counties where polling opened last week. (Those counties are not subject to a new law shortening the number of early voting days across the state. There are 67 counties total in Florida.)Given those numbers, party officials are speculating that 2012 could mark a record year for participation in the country's first closed primary. About 1.9 million Republicans voted in the contest in 2008. There are about 4.1 million registered Republican voters statewide.