Don’t forget as well that Florida is a closed primary. In South Carolina, Newt won 40-28, but he carried GOP voters 45-28, a 17% margin. Newt only won the indies by 31-26.
The takeaway: Mittens has a much steeper hill to climb in Florida. Florida may be a more “diverse” (Translate: liberal) state than S.C. but the primary electorate will be less diverse (translate: more conservative). Santorum is going to fade because people will not want to waste a vote. This will help Newt run up huge margins in the panhandle and the I-4 corridor that Willard will be unable to overcome elsewhere.
I think Newt will effectively end Romney’s chances in Florida.
The takeaway: Mittens has a much steeper hill to climb in Florida. Florida may be a more “diverse” (Translate: liberal) state than S.C. but the primary electorate will be less diverse (translate: more conservative).
Santorum is going to fade because people will not want to waste a vote. This will help Newt run up huge margins in the panhandle and the I-4 corridor that Willard will be unable to overcome elsewhere.
Love your analysis. What do you suppose Mitt's campaign strategists are thinking about the scenario you've just laid out? They've also got to realize that Florida is the do or die state for Mitt.
Do you think they'll try to counter Newt by opting for the traditional all-out negative ad blitz - or do you think they're realizing that they've got to consult Sun Tzu for a better strategy?
One thing is certain - they're not about to fold their tents and go home. They're about to do something.