The U.S. Senate is tiltiing our way, but not completely guaranteed. Here’s my take on the most vulnerable races:
ND- Congressman Rick Berg is not a particularly good candidate, but the ‘Rat Party doesn’t have anyone viable. We’ll pick it up unless Berg makes a major gaffe.
NE- Long-ago Senator Bob Kerrey is yesteday’s news, though older voters may remember him fondly. Problem is that none of the Republicans running are anything to brag about. State AG Jim Bruning has been the biggest dissapointment since the Edsel. I’m rooting for state Treasurer Don Stenberg, in spite of his spotty electoral history.
Wisconsin- Another ‘Rat retirement. The ‘Rat Party has rallied around Tammy Baldwin, who will be well-funded from the expected sources but whose general election appeal is debatable. Popular ex-Governor Tommy Thompson is running, but his age and record as HHS Secretary are liabilities. Some conservatives rallying around ex-Congressman Mark Neuman and state House Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, with no clear consensus candidate.
VA- Last time out, Jim Webb edged George Allen from the Senate by a hair. With Webb retiring after a single term and Allen running again, his party will go all-out to bring him back. The DemocRATS are running ex-Governor Tim Kaine. On the plus side, Kaine can’t portray himself as independent like Webb did. On the down side, the government workers of northern VA are a bigger share of the elcetorate than in 2006. It’s a tossup.
MO- Clare McCaskill has a 50/50 chance of winning at best, and would be doing worse if she had better opposition. None of the Republicans running have excited the grass roots. McCaskill’s scandal about the free airplane hurt for a while, but is becoming old news.
MT- Jon Tester and Denny Rehberg are running neck and neck, with Rehberg the very slight favorite. Montana is a conservative state, but one that values seniority and tends to reelect incumbents. That helps Tester a lot, but Obama hurts him.
New Mexico- Another ‘Rat retirement gives us an opportunity. Both parties face contentious primaries with the establishment candidates (Heather Wilson and Martin Heinrich) the likely nominees. The general could go either way.
NV- Interum Senator Dean Heller is a slight favorite to win. His opponent, Congresswoman Shelley Berkeley, has limited appeal outside of Las Vegas, but that’s where most of the voters live.
MA- Scott Brown still has celebrity after his surprise win in a special election, but his opponent (Elizabeth Warren) has celeb appeal of her own and she’s raised a ton of left-wing money. In spite of Brown’s last victory, the state is a ‘Rat Party stronghold.
Polling is out in Nebraska, Kerrey trails Bruning by 11 and Stenberg by 8.
In Wisconsin, to be blunt, can a lesbo win enough support to win a state wide election in a blue collar state? I think we take it whether Thompson is the nominee or not.
I think you are too down on Missouri I’d say 50/50 at worst. Given the state’s history we are pretty much guaranteed a 2 or 3 point race.
In ND what’s wrong with Berg? I have that race as safe Republican.