Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
I think Perry should get out of the race, throw his support to Newt, and then campaign alongside him. He’s gotten pretty good at debates and would be a big help to Newt, (especially with Palin). I do like Santorum too, I just don’t think he’s nasty enough to take on Obama. That’s why I like the Nasty Newt better than the Newtered Newt!
Bash? No.
Vultures, ants and flies perform a valuable service by removing carrion. The difference is, the taxpayer isn’t left to pick up the tab for what can’t be sold for profit.
But remember, Perry can be much more influential out of the race than in the race. If he drops out he will be able to speak his mind without any regard to how the opposition paints him .... ungagged! Same is true for Palin. She is a kingmaker now. She is much more of a threat now than she was when she held public office.
She did no such thing. Palin said that Romney, along with the other candidates, should be held accountable for what they claim on the campaign trail and, specifically, that Romney should provide evidence to back up his claim that Bain created 100,000 jobs. That's far different from “criticizing Romney's tenure at Bain” as Perry and Newt did.
More on the black support for Gingrich: overheard on Mike Gallagher today an interview with one J.C. Watts. He has endorsed Newt and is in fact in SC right now campaigning for him. There you go.
This is a push poll. No way does Romney(care) flies in SC. These are self-determination and state’s rights folks here. It is, afterall, part of the Bible Belt.
Ditto for Gingrich. He cannot outrun his sitting on a sofa, knee to knee, with Pelosi in a pro global warming ad. Nor can he out run Pelosi’s very public claim that she has Newty by the short hairs. What else would explain his appearance in the ad. His “inexlicable” explanation does not cut it.
This is a push poll. No way does Romney(care) flies in SC. These are self-determination and state’s rights folks here. It is, afterall, part of the Bible Belt.
Ditto for Gingrich. He cannot outrun his sitting on a sofa, knee to knee, with Pelosi in a pro global warming ad. Nor can he out run Pelosi’s very public claim that she has Newty by the short hairs. What else would explain his appearance in the ad. His “inexlicable” explanation does not cut it.
This is a push poll. No way does Romney(care) flies in SC. These are self-determination and state’s rights folks here. It is, afterall, part of the Bible Belt.
Ditto for Gingrich. He cannot outrun his sitting on a sofa, knee to knee, with Pelosi in a pro global warming ad. Nor can he out run Pelosi’s very public claim that she has Newty by the short hairs. What else would explain his appearance in the ad. His “inexlicable” explanation does not cut it.
I have NOTHING against Rick Perry. I’ll even accept that he might be the most conservative guy left. And I believe he’s a good man.
Unfortunately in the world of presidential politics, the ability to express yourself is crucial. And, to put it bluntly, he just comes across as a dope far too often. I’m not saying he IS a dope....but boy oh boy....
At any rate, he is NOT going to be the nominee. He can only help Mitt by staying in, whether he intends to or not.
Hank
I also like Rand.
Yes, I worried about RP being a spoiler in the general from day one, just never dreamed he’d be one this early, providing cover for Romney
I’ve got it - promise him a cabinet spot!
Evidently your not a conservative or you wouldn’t be bashing Bain Capital! There is no guaranteed outcome to any business venture. What Bain did was do a service for some companies and saved them. Some companies couldn’t be saved. You go in put up Capital take some risk downsize the company and hopefully they survive. Sometimes they don’t. Sometimes people get hurt. Kinda like Solyndra except they didn’t use taxpayer money. They used theirs or other Capitalist money.
By the way I’m a Newt guy I am backing Newt but he is making me uneasy with this!
Well, County Agent Kimball, I appreciate your response although I disagree about Rick Perry’s ability to express himself. After the first, and maybe second (I don’t remember) he’s expressed himself fine.
I’ve also seen him interviewed numerous times and viewed speeches he has made.
His speech cadence may be a little foreign to some people and he certainly is not as glib as Newt or as smooth as Romney, but I don’t think it’s a problem. I’d like to know exactly when you felt he came across as a dope.
I’ve been on all the debate threads and the general consensus from people who watched them was that Rick Perry was first or second.
That being said, I don’t know what the problem is but he’s not staying in to help Romney. He’s staying in because so far we’ve had one caucus and one primary in a liberal state and he thinks he has a chance.
It may be slim at this point, but only a very small number of delegates have been chosen even by Mitt.
Well, Cain certainly doesn’t favor Perry.
He’s tried to trash him from the start and is still trashing him.
Fortunately, I don’t think Cain’s support means that much anymore.
Oh, so you’ve been appointed by the “Home Office” to be “Acting Arbiter of All Things Conservative” have you? I won’t lose any sleep over it! I think it’s more corporatist than conservative but to each his own.
I would have
As far as actively supporting a candidate from the current crop, it would have to be Newt.
As a post-script, there seems to be a bit of concern among the pseudo-Conservatives on the Fox Panel because of the Bain thing having legs among the S.C. electorate.
All I can say is if your bashing Capitalism, Free Market Idea’s that is not Conservative thought! That is Obama’s ideas of his government. You have to limit how much companies can make!
And another Limpbough drone speaks out, cluelessly.
Unless you are working with a Laissez Faire form of capitalism, which we in America do not, there are restrictions placed upon business. Some are fair, some are not.
I’m sure we both agree it isn’t proper to use illegal immigrant workers to keep costs down and profits up or do you support porous borders?
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