I think the problem is that states like New Hampshire are SO scared to death of anything remotely socially conservative that even though they tend to have libertarian views on guns and taxes, they’ll go for the liberal rather than risk having someone who is right of Howard Stern on social issues.
Iowa has the opposite problem, they’re such Bible-thumpers, that they simply go for whomever seems the most Jesus-like, throwing fiscal sanity to the goats.
Ain’t that the truth. They may be two of the worst possible states for picking a Republican nominee. Is it any wonder why most of the campaign consists of “culture war” red meat and pandering to Iowa farm subsidies?