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There is still time to stop Romney, but it’s running out fast. We’re down to one bullet: conservatives coalescing around Rick Santorum in SC and FL and building upon victories there to beat Romney one-on-one in later primaries. If we keep arguing over whether perhaps Gingrich or Perry or Ron Paul should get to shoot our one bullet instead of Santorum, Romney will wipe the floor against the divided opposition. A month ago one could argue over who should be the one conservative standardbearer, but the die has been cast and relitigating that will only help Romney.

In the days prior to the Iowa caucuses, I told anyone who would listen that the most important thing wouldn’t be whether Romney, Paul or Santorum finished first, but whether Perry and Bachmann get below 10% and then dropped out, given that Santorum wouldn’t be able to defeat Romney in later states if a chunk of the conservative vote was going to Perry and Bachmann. Well, Bachmann got below 10% and dropped out, and Perry got just north of 10% and, after some initial confusion, decided to stay in; hopefullt he won’t get 10%-15% in SC and hand the state (and perhaps the nomination) to Romney.

In NH, on the other hand, the most important thing won’t be Romney’s victory margin or whether Santorum finishes 3rd, 4th or 5th, but how well Huntsman does. A strong 15%-20% showing by Huntsman could be enough for him to live to fight another day and maybe build a little momentum, and if Huntsman is able to compete in the FL primary he could cut into the Romney vote from moderate Republicans in the Gold Coast and Tampa Bay. That would be terrific news for Santorum, since otherwise Romney may be able to forge a coalition that would give him a plurality against Santorum, Newt and Perry (with Paul getting some votes as well).

Regarding the subject of this thread, I think that the obvious GOP VP candidates from this cycle—Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Susana Martinez, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Pat Toomey and Jeb Bush—have one thing in common that could make them bad picks for Romney: they are all Roman Catholic. If, as has been speculated, Evangelical Protestants (particularly Southern Baptists) are wary of Romney’s Mormonism, he needs a VP pick that will assuage the feelings of this crucial voting block, and picking a Catholic runningmate may not be a good way of achieving that end. In other words, a Catholic VP candidate would be terrific for the GOP, and, in a happy coincidence, most of the obvious GOP VP candidates happen to be Catholic, but only a Protestant presidential nominee would be able to pick a Catholic runningmate; and while every single Republican presidential nominee from 1856 to 2008 has been Protestant, this year our nominee will almost certainly not be (the only Protestants still in the running are Perry and Paul, and it’s too late for someone else to jump in). So, because of our curious predicament, I think that we’d be better off with a Protestant VP nominee, and that (God forbid) Perry wins the nomination he should pick former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, SC Senator Jim DeMint or WI Gov. Scott Walker as his runningmate.