http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdv_Iowa_1229.pdf
Looks like it is Gingrich surging in Iowa now.
Mittens 17
Gingrich 16.7
That’s a good sign. I don’t know whether it necessarily means Gingrich is surging, but I think it does show that these Iowa polls are highly volatile for a lot of reasons and that you can’t count anyone out yet.
There’s an interesting article on the front page of today’s Wall Street Journal on how evangelicals in Iowa have as yet been unable to unite behind a single candidate as they did with Huckabee in 2008. That situation of course benefits Romney.
I also think, however, that the situation is very fluid, and a lot could happen by Tuesday. Maybe even Santorum could pull out a win here. I’ve always thought he was the most natural fit for the evangelical bloc. Also, and maybe this is just my ignorance as to what drives the evangelical vote in Iowa, but I’m skeptical that Santorum’s Catholicism is really that big an problem for him there.
Oh well. One thing is for certain - at least one of the recent polls is going to be proven dead wrong next Tuesday.