The conservative winner in Iowa will get the SC advantage? Oh really? You mean like Huckabee did?
The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will get maybe 30 thousand votes. That is a tiny county in SC and a rounding error in Florida. LIke always, the Iowa winner will mean nothing.
Yeah, I’m working on the same model for the 46 counties in SC that I used for the 99 Counties in IA.
Huckabee/Thompson dominated NW South Carolina and the Bible Belt, with McCain running respectable, and Romney tanking in that area. McCain and Romney ran better along the I-95 corridor and in and around Columbia, although Romney never performed well in any area, including the more “moderate” areas.
What put McCain over the top though was the military veterans, particularly in Horry County (Myrtle Beach) and Charleston and along the eastern coast. For Romney to have a prayer in SC, he’ll have to win at least 40% in Charleston and 35% in Myrtle Beach AND get at least 20% in every NW County in SC. He might acheive one of those goals, but all three is heavily unlikely even if the conservative base is fractured. These folks may support Perry before they support Romney even in these more “moderate” areas.
The winner of the IA Caucus of the Conservative candidates WILL get a bounce in NW SC just like Huckabee did. And that will be enough to win that state this time around.