Yeah, I’m working on the same model for the 46 counties in SC that I used for the 99 Counties in IA.
Huckabee/Thompson dominated NW South Carolina and the Bible Belt, with McCain running respectable, and Romney tanking in that area. McCain and Romney ran better along the I-95 corridor and in and around Columbia, although Romney never performed well in any area, including the more “moderate” areas.
What put McCain over the top though was the military veterans, particularly in Horry County (Myrtle Beach) and Charleston and along the eastern coast. For Romney to have a prayer in SC, he’ll have to win at least 40% in Charleston and 35% in Myrtle Beach AND get at least 20% in every NW County in SC. He might acheive one of those goals, but all three is heavily unlikely even if the conservative base is fractured. These folks may support Perry before they support Romney even in these more “moderate” areas.
The winner of the IA Caucus of the Conservative candidates WILL get a bounce in NW SC just like Huckabee did. And that will be enough to win that state this time around.
Are you saying the folks in SC care at all what Iowa does? Iowa is even more spastic this time around because of the oddity of all the campaigns attacking a single person.
I do not think Iowa will impact SC that much. Huck had decent SC support before Iowa, which I don’t think Santorum does. An Arkansas preacher does better than a slick Pennsylvania politician type in SC.
I think Newt will get a lot of the McCain vote because they are older and they will well remember what Newt did in congress. And he’s polling well there now. Mitt will do what he did in 08 there.
But I don’t see Iowa meaning that much, nor NH, for SC.
Anyone know what happens if no one gets a majority of the delegates by the time the convention rolls around? Can the 2nd and 3rd place candidates pool their delegates in order to overtake the 1st place candidate?