Posted on 12/06/2011 3:34:48 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
Chapman University’s economics brain trust has run a formula they say predicts presidential winners – and it shows the Republican will win next year, regardless of the nominee.
Chapman’s formula, developed at the Orange school’s Anderson Center for Economic Research, works out to predict every presidential election winner but one, dating back to 1944. The exception was picking Richard Nixon to beat John F. Kennedy in 1960. It accurately picked Al Gore to win the popular vote in 2000, although George W. Bush won via the Electoral College.
Chapman’s model, which takes into account party but not the candidates, is based on three variables:
- Approval rating of the incumbent party’s sitting president on year prior to the election.
- Percentage change in real GDP in the election year.
- Percentage change in employment in the election year.
All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at totalbuzz.ocregister.com ...
Dittos!! And, I hope that their formula works.
They need a correction factor for Democrap voter fraud.
The 1960 election can be a good data point.
I hope Chapman’s model took voter fraud into account also.
And yet we have a lot of cowards that want to compromise conservative principles and support a RINO when an actual true conservative could win easily.
It doesn’t matter who the GOP nominee is. That person is pretty much guaranteed 219 Electoral Votes from the McCain State + NC+IN+VA. Win OH, FL, and one other toss-up state and it’s game over.
No one has yet provided an argument for why Bachmann or Santorum wouldn’t be able to pull this off. Why then settle for less, when you can get the real thing?
They probably had it right in 1960 as well. If you took away all of the fraudulent votes (over 100k in Illinois and Texas) Nixon probably did win the popular vote and would have been given the EC votes.
It's really simple.
I do believe that any of them could beat Obama (Paul being the exception).
With the possible exception of Perry, I just don’t think any of the remaining candidates will make a very good president.
All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent
WEL. MEBBI SO, BUT youall STAY WITH THE PROGRAM and work hard, take nothing for granted this guy has to be gone soon while there is something left to fight for, good luck
In 1960 they didn’t take into consideration the Chicago shenanigans.
And Nixon knew he had been had and decided for the good of the country not to contest it. Funny thing is he was enlisted to fix JFK and LBJ's messes which some still haunt us today...
I will crawl over broken glass to vote this commie out
That is true there are alot of the dead that come back to life and vote democrat.
Man are you ever right on the 1960 Voter fraud! That election was my first taste of a presidential campaign. Although just months short of being of voting age, working for the Nixon campaign was one of the most exciting associations for me up to that point in my life. There was voter fraud all over the state in Texas which was not unusual when LBJ was involved. The election results nationwide were close as fine hair on a gnat’s a... Things never change regarding democratic fraud.
Even if Obama loses his ass, the wrong candidate can still win.
....which only proves that the formula is racist. < /s >
“which was not unusual when LBJ was involved”
They didn’t call him “Landslide Lyndon” for no reason.
I was about to say Nixon won that one... voter fraud in South Texas and Chicago made the few electoral vote difference.
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