KYLE BASS: This Is What The End Of The Global Debt Super-Cycle Looks Like

TBI ^ | 12-1-2011 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

CHART OF THE DAY: KYLE BASS: This Is What The End Of The Global Debt Super-Cycle Looks Like

Joe Weisenthal
Dec. 1, 2011, 10:39 AM

In his latest investor letter (via Gurufocus), Kyle Bass lays out his case that a wave of hard defaults is coming.

His basic argument: The world is just saddled with too much debt.

Throughout history, he says, total debt-to-GDP only ever breached 200% when nations were spending on war. Today we're at 310%.

Says Bass: "There is no savior large enough with a magical pool of capital to stafe off this unfortunate conclusion to the global debt super cycle. We think hard defaults are imminent."

[DuncanWaring]

“Beam me up” ... don’t remember the guy’s name, but I think it started with a “T” (Toricelli or something like that?) and he was from Ohio.

[DuncanWaring]

Sure, they go on about exponents & math, but they never seem to realize that if the end-game is obvious once a credit cycle has started, why isn't the end-game obvious when it started?

Try this:

What You Simply MUST Understand

[DuncanWaring]

Illegal immigration is, in terms of public finances, one of the least of our problems.

Not exactly familiar with Arizona and California, are you?

[DuncanWaring]

...there is pain coming unlike anything any American has ever endured.

Not sure that's exactly true ... things were pretty grim for the guys at Bataan ... but there is much unpleasantness coming ... no matter what anyone does.

The real questions are "How bad?" and "Does it ever get better?".

[LibLieSlayer]

I was waiting for someone to make a statement like you did. I had an uncle that was there... I know plenty about the Death March... my uncle survived it.

I was talking about domestic pain by our civilian populace.

LLS

[DuncanWaring]

Be careful what you suggest.

There was plenty of suffering in Germany in the early 1920s.

I’m sure you know how that turned out.

[DuncanWaring]

I figured that was what you really meant ... “Aside from anyone who’s been a POW of Orientals (and possibly fanatical Muslims), no living American has seen pain like what’s coming...”.

[LibLieSlayer]

True that. I will tell you one thing... Pat told me of how horrible and animalistic the Japanese were and how they beheaded friends and murdered without thought. He also told me that if it were not for a Christian Japanese guard... he and those with him that survived... would never have made it.

BTW... I knew that you knew that I knew... you know? :-)

LLS

[dennisw]

Great link thanks. I could not believe how boorish the female BBC interviewer was.

[DuncanWaring]

Ever read “The Knights of Bushido: A Short History of Japanese War Crimes” by “Lord Russell of Liverpool”?

“Short” being a relative term; it’s around 350 pages.

[Travis McGee]

"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig Von Mises

[central_va]

I don’t think you will be disappointed... there is pain coming unlike anything any American has ever endured.

Well compared to living in the South during reconstruction maybe not....

[LibLieSlayer]

I have discussed that book but I forgot about it until you mentioned it... just put it on my read list. Thanks!

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

I understand what you are saying... I had family that fought and died and some that survived. If I was any further South... I’d be standing in the Gulf.

LLS

[blam]

"For some strange reason, folks seem to think we can just continue to spend 43% more then we earn forever. And that is just at the federal level, local gov and state gov are just as bad. "

That bit of information seems to have been lost in discussions. We're just trucking right along spending 43% more than we have EVERYDAY. No-body mentions it.

[cherry]

I've decided to prep as much as I can for my adult children...like you, it may be hard for them to get here....but we do have an old pig of a 1973 truck that would probably still work if we had the fuel...we'd to get them if we had too....

the times we live in....

[cherry]

these people with the fat pensions.....will they end up being poor like the rest of us?

[EyeGuy]

“...these people with the fat pensions.....will they end up being poor like the rest of us?”

###

That depends on the extent, depth and longevity of the inevitable fiscal meltdown we are facing, doesn’t it?

Government is at some point going to default. Someone is not going to get paid.

[DuncanWaring]

The Federal Government spends a dollar in less time than it takes light to travel two miles.

[blam]

"The Federal Government spends a dollar in less time than it takes light to travel two miles. "

That still doesn't beat my ex-wife.