[nascarnation]

In my view, a Romney win of the R nomination essentially guarantees a 3rd party challenger from the right.

That’s why I think the Dems will work hard to put Mitty in via crossover votes in open primary states. If I can figure this out, I think Axlegrease and Plouffe can too.

I believe Baraq will get 42% of the vote in either scenario. Enough for a landslide defeat in a 2-way race or a Clintonian plurality win in a 3-way.

[TribalPrincess2U]

In my view, a Romney win of the R nomination essentially guarantees a 3rd party challenger from the right.

Probably so but a third party would assure 0 another win. There isn't enough backing for a third party IMO, unless you know there is.