Posted on 09/29/2011 4:34:38 AM PDT by RonDog
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Governor Palin is Still Alley Cat Smart
Posted on September 28 2011 - 8:23 PM - Posted by: SubmissionsGuest Submission by John Smith
And therefore those skilled in war bring the enemy to the field of battle and are not brought there by him- Sun TzuEveryone is getting all wee-weed up lately about Sarah Palins supposed indecision about a run for President, especially after her interview last night with Greta. Some here are nearly suicidal. Others are begging for people to have faith and keep their powder dry. For my part, Ill just offer a simple statement: Sarah Palin has already decided to run for President.
Suppose that you, like me, believe that she believes what she says. Phrases like Id rather sleep well than eat well and a ship in harbor is safe, but thats not why the ship is built arent empty slogans. Theyre words that capture the essence of a life lived so far. In this world, Sarah remains UNDEFEATED if she tries but fails to win. She only is defeated if she fails to try for fear of failure. Simply put, for someone like me, Sarah running makes perfect sense. Sarah not running would be tantamount to her saying all those things Ive said and done . . . never mind, THEY were right about me. Could you see her doing that? Could you see yourself basically refudiating so much of what is exemplary and good about your life so far.
Now, suppose that you are like Joe McGinniss. You believe that Sarah Palin is evil and manipulative. She only cares about the money. She only cares about her brand. Shes using her supporters, especially those O4P folks who have put their lives on hold chasing a false dream. When the rubber meets the road, shell pass. That sounds really convincing sometimes, especially if you say it enough and even more especially if you say it after an interview like Sarah had with Greta. Theres just one tiny flaw with the theory: If you believe all of that, then it makes more sense for Sarah to run. If shes all about the money, then alienating an employer who pays her a million dollars a year makes no sense. If shes all about the brand, then shell keep more of her followers by running than by not running.
In other words, in all of this talk about whether Palin will run or not, one question is NEVER asked: Does Palin have more to gain (or lose) by running or by not running? The reason that question is never asked is because, no matter your frame of reference when it comes to analyzing Sarah Palin, the conclusion would be the same: Shes running. Shes always been running. She has more to lose by NOT running. And, she is playing this to be or not to be game for a political reason that I will articulate presently:
Everyone knows that if (when) Palin runs, she will run a grassroots campaign. She will rely on deep enthusiasm among an often underestimated group of supporters and a lot of small donations to drive her campaign. Win the nomination, and the deeper pockets will come along for the ride. That pretty much was her strategy in Alaska in her run for governor in 2006. But, the beginning is the tricky part. Like 2006, she has to strike hard and fast this time in order to diminish the organizational and monetary advantages that the so-called frontrunners have.
Think of this like Blitzkrieg. The opposition is on two flanks. One or both has more resources and more immediate access to resources. How do you win? You plan well, and, when the time comes, you strike hard and fast. Thats what shes set up. Three months ago, Sarah was facing a two front war, with Mitt Romney (the Russia of the race) on one flank and his ally Michelle Bachmann on the other flank. Why commence the battle on that field and at that moment?
As I wrote in my previous submission about Sarah being alley cat smart she knew that it would be tough enough to beat Romney one on one. A two-front war would be infinitely more difficult. So, she baited Perry in to neutralize Bachmann. Perry has done just that. At the same time, I suspect that she knew her friend well enough to know that hed (a) neutralize himself and (b) be the perfect crony capitalist foil when the time comes.
And so it was that everything was in place for an entry into the race about 10 days ago, right after Perrys debate meltdown. Yet Sarah did the oddest thing: She not only didnt enter the race (or give strong indication that is her intention) but also gave last night an interview to Greta that dropped a lake full of water on the Palin for President fire. Why? Doesnt she realize that the first state filing deadline is October 14? Doesnt she realize that shes been giving us all of these announce by dates, first the end of August, then the end of September, and then that talk about November with Hannity a few weeks ago? And, why does she have all these paid speeches early next month, including one in South Korea on October 11? Why? Why? Why?
Perhaps the answer is suggested best in something George Bernard Shaw once wrote: You see things, and you say Why? But, I dream of things that never were, and I say Why not? Listen to this clip from an interview with Bob & Mark on November 6, 2008. Listen to Sarah talk about grassroots and about needing the mood of the country to reveal itself in the 2010 elections. Think about the new media. We often hear Sarah talk about an unconventional campaign. Perhaps the more appropriate description is a revolutionary campaign, a campaign the likes of which we never have seen and which Sarah has spent about three years envisioning and amending as conditions changed.
Here, the doubting Palinsta may interject: Thats all well and good . . . why hasnt she announced yet? The answer: Because until last night THEY were expecting an announcement by the end of September or first few days of October. Ooooh! The light bulb goes on. Everything crystallizes. The tactics become clear. And, here is what I expect to see over the next two weeks:
Sarah Palin will announce that she is running for President by October 9. I dont know how shell do it. I dont know where shell do it. She may do it in one of those speeches before her trip to South Korea. Personally, Id announce on October 6. Let the media scramble to get to the speeches on October 7 and 8 and then turn the South Korea speech into an all eyes on Palin moment. Yes, she could announce later, but Id like to think she doesnt plan to waste that trip to South Korea. As a non-candidate, next to nobody in the country will cover it. As a candidate, everyone will cover it.
It is as a moment like this that I remember more Sun Tzu: Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment- that which they cannot anticipate.
Sarah has set that up. After last night, what is the last thing in the world theyd expect her to do in the next 10 days? Is it, perhaps, to go relatively dark and then pop out with a surprise announcement, maybe something like a tweet that simply says #GAMEON?
At this point, Id be remiss if I didnt interject three quick comments:
1. While I am speculating that she will announce later next week, it is entirely possible that she may wait an extra week until after the trip to South Korea but before the first filing deadline on October 14. This is, however, not what I expect for reasons previously articulated.
2. If Sarah announces before the trip to South Korea, then I do not expect her to participate in the October 11 debate. While logistically it would be feasible for her to get back just in time to attend, I doubt that she would be expected to attend under the circumstances. I would expect her first debate to be the CNN debate on October 18.
3. I dont care whether Christie runs or not. If he doesnt run, then thats fine. If he does run, then hell hurt Romney and Perry a lot more than hell hurt Sarah. I keep saying this is why she keeps saying the more, the merrier.
Oh, by the way, I have not ignored the possibility that I could be wrong about all of this (and in the process more wrong about this than Ive been about anything else in my life). Perhaps THEY are right about her, even though I think shed rather die than admit this. Perhaps she sincerely has other reasons like family not to run, even though I think that staying safe is not why Sarah does what she does.
Ok, never mind . . . shes running. Shes always been running. The indecision isnt genuine; its feigned. The tactics may confound because theyre unconventional, but the strategy always has been obvious. All warfare is based on deception. Every battle is won or lost before it is fought. Everything is in place. She has occupied their minds with the mixed signals, and the extraordinary moment is upon us. They should have been able to anticipate it, but Sarah isnt playing their game anymore. Shes playing her game. Still doubt me? Just look at how she approached the 2006 Alaska governors race (and her entry into that race), and then remember yet again that the past is prologue and that Sarah remains, as Tony Knowles once observed, alley cat smart.
She said "unconventional" and she meant it.
She also said something in the "Greta" interview about being controlled by handlers etc. She's not doing it. She has said before that her campaign would be grassroots. Supporters are setup in 34 states. They are ready to go.
She said Herb was an ordinary guy from an ordinary home, and that’s why people identify with him. Of course, the same can be said for Rick Perry (son of ranchers, Eagle Scout, Air Force pilot), but according to Palin, he must of taken a wrong turn somewhere and got bit by the ole crony capitalism bug, where he sells favors for small campaign donations.
Perhaps it was in a syringe of Gardisil, and Perry got it as a side effect?
'Everyone' know the run will be unconventional. Incidently I was just told the head fake was only meant for the 'bad people' (aka PDSers) not the good ones that C4P claims are on suicide watch.
Bingo!
What does she have to gain or lose?
If she gets into the race and is polling in Santorum or Bachmann territory, then she’s blown everything, he FOX gig, all of it.
If she’s polls as a second tier candidate (below 10%, which is what she is doing now), again she’s blown it. She’s will have marginalized herself. No more kingmaker for other politicians.
If she stays out she will retain her FOX gig, retain her aura, and retain her roles as kingmaker for other candidates.
Unless she gets in and is a top tier candidate (that means pushing Perry and everyone else out of the race and making it a Romney vs Palin contest) she has more to gain by staying out.
Because she is getting a fat speaking fee for being there? Seems like a good reason to go to me. Give an hour speech, visit South Korea, and pick up a nice check. She deserves it.
Not really.
Richard L. Connor: Texas' Perry might surprise Obama in 2012
Some who know him say that Rick was inspired to pursue a career in politics when he attended -- at age 10 or 11 -- the 1961 funeral of legendary Texas lawmaker Sam Rayburn,
I think Palin is out, and therefore Romney is in like Flynn. Look that one up :)
I like her - but the way she is acting, and even moreso for her cult followers is absurd.
We need to beat obama in 2012 - not engage in idol worship of someone not even running!
Get a life and quit yr bit chin'. If you want somebody else, promote them, but you should stay off these threads unless you have someting of substance to contribute. Your opinion is beyond worthless! Sarah Palin will likely be our next President! If she doesn't run, I'll be surprised. In my opinion, you're just another troll!
My guess is that there will still be a small faction of FReepers at that point convinced that she will be drafted at the convention, and they will still spend the next year smearing any candidate that gets in the way of Palin's 'unconventional' road to the nomination.
She said it would be unconventional! Plus, if she announces she isn't running, well, that's just a head fake until the big surprise at the convention!
I think you missed the joke.
His name is Herman Cain (Herm for short). Herb is short for Herbert.
They played her interview with Greta on the radio this AM. It wasn't a one time mistake, she kepty saying "Herb Cain".
She doesn't even know his name!
Yep, my biggest fear is that Romney will get it much the same way McCain did in 2008. In 2007 many told me McCain couldnt get it even though something told me he would, Now many have told me that Romney cant get it just like before. I have been careful not to equate any other candidate with Romney.
She’s not running.
Last I checked this is still the US and Gov. Palin has the right to speak whether she is running or not. In fact, I hope she continues to speak. It is not her job, to get anybody else elected. If they can’t do it themselves than they don’t deserve it.
Yeah, I knew that. I’ve been calling him Herb for a few days now. It’s what his close friends call him, dontcha know? You betcha!
Hey, she said she doesn't want to get caught up in titles! Why did you insult her like this?
Telling somebody to STFU is not criticizing someone. It’s being childish and arrogant.
Truth is we know she's already made a decision.
;-)
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