Posted on 09/29/2011 4:34:38 AM PDT by RonDog
.
Governor Palin is Still Alley Cat Smart
Posted on September 28 2011 - 8:23 PM - Posted by: SubmissionsGuest Submission by John Smith
And therefore those skilled in war bring the enemy to the field of battle and are not brought there by him- Sun TzuEveryone is getting all wee-weed up lately about Sarah Palins supposed indecision about a run for President, especially after her interview last night with Greta. Some here are nearly suicidal. Others are begging for people to have faith and keep their powder dry. For my part, Ill just offer a simple statement: Sarah Palin has already decided to run for President.
Suppose that you, like me, believe that she believes what she says. Phrases like Id rather sleep well than eat well and a ship in harbor is safe, but thats not why the ship is built arent empty slogans. Theyre words that capture the essence of a life lived so far. In this world, Sarah remains UNDEFEATED if she tries but fails to win. She only is defeated if she fails to try for fear of failure. Simply put, for someone like me, Sarah running makes perfect sense. Sarah not running would be tantamount to her saying all those things Ive said and done . . . never mind, THEY were right about me. Could you see her doing that? Could you see yourself basically refudiating so much of what is exemplary and good about your life so far.
Now, suppose that you are like Joe McGinniss. You believe that Sarah Palin is evil and manipulative. She only cares about the money. She only cares about her brand. Shes using her supporters, especially those O4P folks who have put their lives on hold chasing a false dream. When the rubber meets the road, shell pass. That sounds really convincing sometimes, especially if you say it enough and even more especially if you say it after an interview like Sarah had with Greta. Theres just one tiny flaw with the theory: If you believe all of that, then it makes more sense for Sarah to run. If shes all about the money, then alienating an employer who pays her a million dollars a year makes no sense. If shes all about the brand, then shell keep more of her followers by running than by not running.
In other words, in all of this talk about whether Palin will run or not, one question is NEVER asked: Does Palin have more to gain (or lose) by running or by not running? The reason that question is never asked is because, no matter your frame of reference when it comes to analyzing Sarah Palin, the conclusion would be the same: Shes running. Shes always been running. She has more to lose by NOT running. And, she is playing this to be or not to be game for a political reason that I will articulate presently:
Everyone knows that if (when) Palin runs, she will run a grassroots campaign. She will rely on deep enthusiasm among an often underestimated group of supporters and a lot of small donations to drive her campaign. Win the nomination, and the deeper pockets will come along for the ride. That pretty much was her strategy in Alaska in her run for governor in 2006. But, the beginning is the tricky part. Like 2006, she has to strike hard and fast this time in order to diminish the organizational and monetary advantages that the so-called frontrunners have.
Think of this like Blitzkrieg. The opposition is on two flanks. One or both has more resources and more immediate access to resources. How do you win? You plan well, and, when the time comes, you strike hard and fast. Thats what shes set up. Three months ago, Sarah was facing a two front war, with Mitt Romney (the Russia of the race) on one flank and his ally Michelle Bachmann on the other flank. Why commence the battle on that field and at that moment?
As I wrote in my previous submission about Sarah being alley cat smart she knew that it would be tough enough to beat Romney one on one. A two-front war would be infinitely more difficult. So, she baited Perry in to neutralize Bachmann. Perry has done just that. At the same time, I suspect that she knew her friend well enough to know that hed (a) neutralize himself and (b) be the perfect crony capitalist foil when the time comes.
And so it was that everything was in place for an entry into the race about 10 days ago, right after Perrys debate meltdown. Yet Sarah did the oddest thing: She not only didnt enter the race (or give strong indication that is her intention) but also gave last night an interview to Greta that dropped a lake full of water on the Palin for President fire. Why? Doesnt she realize that the first state filing deadline is October 14? Doesnt she realize that shes been giving us all of these announce by dates, first the end of August, then the end of September, and then that talk about November with Hannity a few weeks ago? And, why does she have all these paid speeches early next month, including one in South Korea on October 11? Why? Why? Why?
Perhaps the answer is suggested best in something George Bernard Shaw once wrote: You see things, and you say Why? But, I dream of things that never were, and I say Why not? Listen to this clip from an interview with Bob & Mark on November 6, 2008. Listen to Sarah talk about grassroots and about needing the mood of the country to reveal itself in the 2010 elections. Think about the new media. We often hear Sarah talk about an unconventional campaign. Perhaps the more appropriate description is a revolutionary campaign, a campaign the likes of which we never have seen and which Sarah has spent about three years envisioning and amending as conditions changed.
Here, the doubting Palinsta may interject: Thats all well and good . . . why hasnt she announced yet? The answer: Because until last night THEY were expecting an announcement by the end of September or first few days of October. Ooooh! The light bulb goes on. Everything crystallizes. The tactics become clear. And, here is what I expect to see over the next two weeks:
Sarah Palin will announce that she is running for President by October 9. I dont know how shell do it. I dont know where shell do it. She may do it in one of those speeches before her trip to South Korea. Personally, Id announce on October 6. Let the media scramble to get to the speeches on October 7 and 8 and then turn the South Korea speech into an all eyes on Palin moment. Yes, she could announce later, but Id like to think she doesnt plan to waste that trip to South Korea. As a non-candidate, next to nobody in the country will cover it. As a candidate, everyone will cover it.
It is as a moment like this that I remember more Sun Tzu: Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment- that which they cannot anticipate.
Sarah has set that up. After last night, what is the last thing in the world theyd expect her to do in the next 10 days? Is it, perhaps, to go relatively dark and then pop out with a surprise announcement, maybe something like a tweet that simply says #GAMEON?
At this point, Id be remiss if I didnt interject three quick comments:
1. While I am speculating that she will announce later next week, it is entirely possible that she may wait an extra week until after the trip to South Korea but before the first filing deadline on October 14. This is, however, not what I expect for reasons previously articulated.
2. If Sarah announces before the trip to South Korea, then I do not expect her to participate in the October 11 debate. While logistically it would be feasible for her to get back just in time to attend, I doubt that she would be expected to attend under the circumstances. I would expect her first debate to be the CNN debate on October 18.
3. I dont care whether Christie runs or not. If he doesnt run, then thats fine. If he does run, then hell hurt Romney and Perry a lot more than hell hurt Sarah. I keep saying this is why she keeps saying the more, the merrier.
Oh, by the way, I have not ignored the possibility that I could be wrong about all of this (and in the process more wrong about this than Ive been about anything else in my life). Perhaps THEY are right about her, even though I think shed rather die than admit this. Perhaps she sincerely has other reasons like family not to run, even though I think that staying safe is not why Sarah does what she does.
Ok, never mind . . . shes running. Shes always been running. The indecision isnt genuine; its feigned. The tactics may confound because theyre unconventional, but the strategy always has been obvious. All warfare is based on deception. Every battle is won or lost before it is fought. Everything is in place. She has occupied their minds with the mixed signals, and the extraordinary moment is upon us. They should have been able to anticipate it, but Sarah isnt playing their game anymore. Shes playing her game. Still doubt me? Just look at how she approached the 2006 Alaska governors race (and her entry into that race), and then remember yet again that the past is prologue and that Sarah remains, as Tony Knowles once observed, alley cat smart.
Palin said she would make an announcement one way or the other by the end of Sept.—that’s tomorrow by my calendar. Is the announcement imminent? This woman is play her fans like a fiddle.
The running suit hint is only if you are ‘in the know’and on a super cool and groovy Palin ping list on FR because Palin reads here every single day and night and does what her FR ping lists says; as they guess and dictate dates and say she would never ever ever in a zillion years accept the number two spot and ruins Cain’s chances because she will pounce all and be queen and is already President doncha know? But..if she accepts a VP under Romney it will all of a sudden all be okay and she was told by God to do it.Do ya see it all clearly now?It is ALL in the sun ming chu book.After she wears her hair down and blinks SEVEN times.
I think Polybius spelled it out better than I ever could.
I don’t know. The press stirs the pot and it’s Palins fault and she needs to be quiet. As you said, FR would be empty. LOL
I'm not using that meme. C4P is using it. That's the point of this thread, isn't it? Also, Palin makes over $1 million/year from FoxNews. She is a paid member of the media no matter how you spin it.
You’re smoking something. Palin only got 35 votes out of 17,000 cast at the Iowa Straw Poll. There is very little Palin support in Iowa and it’s probably going down each day. She has over played this cat and mouse game.
My dreamboat? I only have one line in the sand, NO ROMNEY! We can argue about that plenty if Romney gets it. Otherwise I am watching and listening.
Were you thinking that my dreamboat was Palin?
She doesn’t even know his name!”
Either that...or she is being extremely disrespectful, and intentionally.
(Wait...I guess that makes me deranged....)
Derangement or not, the reality of logic can’t be escaped. Does she not know his name? Or is she intentionally using the wrong name?
Not that it matters, because: “Palin is coming and the Tea Party is coming with her! Game on!” (lather, rinse, repeat)
And if you don’t agree, you are deranged or worse....
Everytime you say that I LOL!!!!
The most recent colonoscopy of Palin was 24,000 emails last June! You are a HOOT!!!
I love these guys acting like the last three years never happened.
But don’t you dare suggest anybody but Palin supporters are ignoring reality.
Do you know Palin’s positions on the issues or do you even care? This woman is extremely soft on illegal immigration. I looked up her position on SS and it made no sense to me. It’s time for the Palin worshipers to demand some substance to what she says. Her interviews on FOX are getting extremely shallow—in substance, they say nothing.
Its whoever - for me - its one goal - get rid of obama - take the senate - hold the house.
I would rather fight Romney on our terms if he were POTUS, vs having 4 more years vs the Obama nightmare, 2 more SC choices, etc.
Harold Camping has nothing on these folks.
Lying again, CGG.
Sarah Palin and The Brody File One-On-One at Iowa State Fair
David Brody: Is that short order by the end of September? October?
Palin: I think that that is a fair timeline for people,
The comedy of the whole thing is, the Palin fanatics are arguing that Sarah is not really undecided and that she has been planning a run all along. They think it is some sort of clever psyops operation she is masterfully pulling off. But if that were true, doesn't that means she's been lying for months and months when she says she is undecided?
No-one that says she is not running ever asks and addresses this 'gain/lose' question????
If Palin gets in the race and fails to win the nomination - particularly if she does very poorly, her star power recedes dramatically. Much of her influence is based on the idea that she is a major Republican player that could win the nomination IF she chose to run. If she entered the race and it became clear that most Republicans weren't interested in voting for her, the money and media will start drying up.
I expect the tease campaign to go on for awhile longer, perhaps now even past the end of September. Still, I think you'll see more and more signals from her that she doesn't need a "title". This is her way of letting down her fanatical followers gently till the time she finally admits she isn't running. Even then, she will probably say she isn't running for the Republican nomination in an attempt to keep a certain amount of tease going even longer. The C4P crowd will then hang on every word she utters believing it is a signal she is about to go 3rd party. In the end though, Palin will endorse and campaign for whomever the GOP nominee actually is - and yes, even if that nominee is Romney she will support him. She's made very clear that ABO is an overriding priority this time around.
That rational and thorough post merits only one reply:
“PDS!”
Palin has not appeared in studio as a commentator for some time. They interview her but that's it. I have no idea the status of her contract and neither do you.
CCG is a PDSer of the first order.
The part about SP being smarter than those that actually believe silly theories like C4P posted above is something that I have told fellow labeled PDSers since last year. Many of them bought the hype about her running then put the negative spin on it, ie that her ego was out of control and she was not living in reality. I always believed she knows exactly what she is doing here, and I still do.
I'd step mighty careful on that one.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.