Gen. Forrest,
Thanks for the always cogent, if somewhat sobering analysis.
As a hypothetical (I know the odds of it happening are slim), if one of the lefty jurists is forced to recuse or is incapacitated, and a 4/4 decision is the result of the appeal, what are the consequences of a tie, given that we have conflicting decisions in two of the inferior courts?
The justices would all be well aware that they would be leaving the country in chaos and I cannot believe that one on one side or the other would not cave to get a ruling. Again, the pressure would be absolutely tremendous and every justice would be concerned about whether the institution itself could survive.
It is fun to speculate about a country in which Obamacare applies in roughly half the states and not in the other half or applies in part of the country without the individual mandate. Under those circumstances I believe the entire plan would simply crash although to some degree it would depend on who controls Washington. Assuming the Republicans take control of all 3 needed branches, healthcare would probably be repealed and it is unlikely that the Democrats would attempt to mount a serious filibuster in the Senate. If they did, it would likely be overridden. If they were not, it is likely that the house would simply defund and a majority of the Senate would pass that law as part of the general budget and that, presumably, could not be filibustered.
If the Democrats retain either the Senate or the White House, it will test the character of the Republican majority elsewhere. There is very little in their history which gives one much confidence. So much depends on the kind of election we have the 2012.