Incumbents usually lead in the polls until the issue is truly joined and the electorate thinks about it, which happens to coincide with the debates. There has never been a debate performance that made the difference in a presidential nomination battle, or in a general election.
Reagan made the difference in NH in 1980 by claiming the microphone at a debate, but that was outside the debate format, so it doesn’t really count as part of a debate performance.
Politics junkies like to talk about Reagan’s “There you go again moment.” Did it affect the election — almost certainly not. The impression Reagan left with the electorate had very little to do with that moment and in general, he was a dreadful debater. Trends held up for Gerald Ford after his classic gaffe about how Poland was free.
You just go right on believing in the importance of debate technique along with the Easter Bunny and the Great Pumpkin. Whatever floats your boat. But if you keep expecting debate performances to have real world effects you’re going to be disappointed.
I don’t disagree with you. It wasn’t Reagan’s great debate performance that launched him to a landslide. The debate merely allowed Americans to see that he was an acceptable alternative to the hapless Jimmuh Carter. Folks were able to see that Reagan was intelligent and was not the boogeyman he had been painted out to be.
Great debate performances are indeed overrated, but gaffes can be significant, as you pointed out.
After Obama, Americans will be looking for someone who is, first and foremost, competent. Perry is quite competent, but he looked and sounded bewildered at times in the debate the other night.
And it isn’t debate technique that matters. It’s visceral. “Can I picture this person as president?” (How 53% of people came to that conclusion about Obama, I will never understand. I think there were other factors involved. Moral narcissism, people wanting to feel good about themselves for voting for a black guy, people wanting to feel “part of”, etc.)
Obama is poised for defeat, provided that the GOP nominee is someone who can be perceived as president. The media will be working overtime to boogeyman him, call him dumb, extreme, etc. I like how he stays cool under fire, but he was a stammering mess at the end of the night. It certainly gave me pause.